Eta model forecasts of tropical cyclones from Australian Monsoon Experiment: Dynamical adjustment of initial conditions

Summary The University of Belgrade/National Meteorological Centre, Washington (UB/NMC) limited area Eta Model predicted the development, structure, associated precipitation and tracks of the Australian Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) (10 January through 15 February 1987) tropical cyclonesConnie, Irma, Damien andJason. The initial positions and intensities of the tropical cyclone vortices from the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses, which are used as initial data, do not quite agree with the observations. These disagreements produce additional erros in predicting the tropical cyclone tracks.To improve the initial position of the vortex, the flow is split into the small and the large scale motions, and during the first two hours of the integration, the small-scale part is forced in small steps towards its observed position. The adjustment is performaed with the reduced model dynamics (adjustment processes only) and no physics.With the adjustment during the first two hours of the integration, the model successfully adjusts to the new position of the initial vortex. After the completion of the adjustment stage, the model runs normally, i.e., without any modification. The tracks of the 48-h forecasts with the adjusted initial vortices are parallel to the tracks obtained in the control forecasts without the adjustment. However, e.g., the mean absolute error of the positions during 48-h forecast of the tropical cycloneConnie was reduced from 174 km in the control case to 129 km in the case with adjustment of the position.The latent heat, the thermal energy, the kinetic energy and the total energy of the extracted small scale vortices are calculated every three hours of the integration time. These small-scale energies obtained in the 48-h control forecast are compared to those of the rund with the initial vortex adjustment to monitor the spin up of the model.With 7 Figures     

An analysis of close binaries (CB) based on photometric measurements (VIII)

The author considers current problems in the determination of the orbital and physical parameters for active close binaries (CB) of W Ser type based on the interpretation of photometric observations (Djuraevi, 1991). In this particular case, one analyses the light curves of CB SX Cas in the framework of the accretion-disc model explained in the second paper of this series (Djuraevi, 1992a). The light curve is analysed by applying the inverse-problem method described in the third paper of the series (Djuraevi, 1992b). On the basis of the observational material in theB andV filters (Shao, 1967), the light curves, the fundamental orbital and physical parameters of the system are estimated. In the paper a graphical illustration of the obtained solutions is also given. The obtained results confirm the general picture about the active processes in CB of W Ser type.     

Dust particle and solar radiation

Influence of the solar radiation (electromagnetic and corpuscular - solar wind) on the motion of the interplanetary dust particle is investigated. The ratio time of inspiralling toward the Sun: time of inspiralling neglecting the change of mass of the particle is presented as a function of initial eccentricities.     

An analysis of close binaries (CB) based on photometric measurements (VII)

The paper is devoted to the actual problematics in the determination of orbital and physical parameters of active CB on the basis of the interpretation of photometric observations. One solves the problem in two stages: by obtaining a synthetic light curve in the case when the parameters of the corresponding CB model (Djuraevi, 1992a) are given a priori (direct problem) and by determining the parameters of the given model for which the best fit between the synthetic light curve and the observations is achieved (inverse problem) (Djuraevi, 1992b). In this paper, the above procedure is applied to a particular case of an interpretation of CB light curves AU Ser and RV Corvi.     

An analysis of close binaries (CB) based on photometric measurements (V)

The author considers the current problematics in the determination of the orbital and physical parameters for active close binaries (CB) of W Ser type based on the interpretation of photometric observations. In the particular case one analyses the light curves of CB RX Cas in the framework of the accretion-disc model explained in the second paper of this series (Djuraevi, 1992a). The change of the light curves with that of the system's physical-activity phase is analysed and the orbital and physical parameters of the system are determined for the maximum, minimum and the transition regime of the physical activity by applying the inverse-problem method described in the third paper of the series (Djuraevi, 1992b). In the paper a graphical illustration of the solutions obtained is also given.     

Objective prism survey of qsos in the field centered at 10h40m + 00°00′

QSO objective prism survey was done for the field centered at 10^h40^m + 00°00. For the 348 objects selected, we present in this paper their positions,B _J magnitudes, spectra, and finding charts. Based on the sample containing 163 QSO candidates with higher reliabilities (F 3), the surface density of QSO candidates withB _J 20 is estimated to be about 4.5 per square degree.Work based on UKST plates.     

A note on the performance of the multiply-upstream semi-Lagrangian advection schemes for one-dimensional nonlinear momentum conservation equation

Summary Two-time-level multiply-upstream semi-Lagrangian schemes were examined in the case of the self-advecting, one-dimensional nonlinear momentum conservation equation. The shock formation process was analyzed. It is pointed out that the shocks cannot be created in the truncated systems satisfying the Pudykiewicz, Benoit and Staniforth criterion.The numerical integrations were restricted to 12 h. It was shown that, at least in the sub-CFL range, increased complexity of the scheme can compensate reduced horizontal resolution. A considerable sensitivity of the schemes with respect to the time step was detected. In the super-CFL mode, several windows on various time scales were found within which the Pudykiewicz, Benoit and Staniforth criterion was satisfied. The time step of 1.44 times the maximum time step allowed by the CFL criterion was used in the semi-Lagrangian runs.The super-CFL, semi-Lagrangian solutions were diverging progressively from the sub-CFL ones as the forecasts advanced. This was also reflected in the energy spectra.Unacceptably large energy losses were encountered in the super-CFL, semi-Lagrangian runs. Most of these losses could be explained by the reduced mean wind speed, i.e., the amplitude of the zero wavenumber wave. At the same time, the energy content in the shorter waves increased. In a more complex model, such a situation would resemble a loss of zonal, and an increase of transient eddy kinetic energy.A trajectory error measure was defined as the maximum absolute value of the distance between the actual arriving point of the particle originating at the estimated departure point, and the grid point assumed to be the arrival point in the semi-Lagrangian procedure. In contrast to the sub-CFL regime, this measure could reach a considerable fraction of the grid distance in the computations with the super-CFL time steps.In the physical system considered, the trajectories are determined only by the velocities at the departure points. With the semi-Lagrangian schemes the distances traveled by the particles are estimated on the basis of the velocities at the points downstream with respect to the departure points. Thus, unless the solution is smooth (in space and time) on the scales of the extrapolation distances/times, the upstream extrapolation does not promise the convergence of the solution.With 16 Figures     

Problems connected with the tangential metric coefficient in the Schwarzschild metric: A possible solution

Four situations are shown where the Schwarzschild metric cannot be used or is subject to unsurmountable problems. The first is the question of a metric useful for PPN-formalism checking different gravitational theories. The second problem occurs in connection with Mach's principle, when the flatness of the spacetime inside a massive hollow sphere is a generally accepted solution. The metrical discontinuity on the same spherical shell is a third problem. The fourth one is the anisotropy of the mass-energy of a test particle in the gravitational field. Three principles for solution are proposed:

1. The space is not dilated, but rather contracted, in the gravitational field; then the measurement-rods are shorter and measured distances have greater magnitudes.
2. The potential energy is to be related to a potential level where a stationary observer is placed and the general relativistic potential must be used.
3. A new metric must be introduced which is distinct from the Schwarzschild metric, so that the space in the gravitational field is warped isotropically.

Then the problems stated are shown to be easily solvable.     

TheoreticalPKIKP magnitude determination

Summary The estimation of the theoretical magnitude for deep foci based on the vertica component of medium-period PKIKP waves, Earth model PREM and source spectra is presented. The given graphs are valid for period T ranging from 1·6 s to 10 s, source depth of 25 km to 600 km and distance range of 16 500 km to 19 800 km. A simplified method of representing calibration curves is used.     

Investigation of the instability of graveyard orbits due to the earth's gravitational perturbations

Summary The Banach theorem is applied to the Lagrange planetary equation for the semimajor axis of a geostationary satellite orbit to estimate the stability of near-geostationary satellite orbits. To achieve a graveyard (disposal) orbit, which will not interfere (=cross) the initial geostationary orbit, the geostationary semi-major axis a_g have to be increased at least by 50 km. Numerical results for a variety of graveyard orbits show that the increase of a_g by about 100 km will yield sufficiently stable orbits (accounting for the Earth's gravitational perturbations only) during the next 150 years.Dedicated to the 75th Birthday of Professor Academician Tibor Kolbenheyer