Vertical equilibrium with sub-scale analytical methods for geological CO2 sequestration

Large-scale implementation of geological CO₂ sequestration requires quantification of risk and leakage potential. One potentially important leakage pathway for the injected CO₂ involves existing oil and gas wells. Wells are particularly important in North America, where more than a century of drilling has created millions of oil and gas wells. Models of CO₂ injection and leakage will involve large uncertainties in parameters associated with wells, and therefore a probabilistic framework is required. These models must be able to capture both the large-scale CO₂ plume associated with the injection and the small-scale leakage problem associated with localized flow along wells. Within a typical simulation domain, many hundreds of wells may exist. One effective modeling strategy combines both numerical and analytical models with a specific set of simplifying assumptions to produce an efficient numerical–analytical hybrid model. The model solves a set of governing equations derived by vertical averaging with assumptions of a macroscopic sharp interface and vertical equilibrium. These equations are solved numerically on a relatively coarse grid, with an analytical model embedded to solve for wellbore flow occurring at the sub-gridblock scale. This vertical equilibrium with sub-scale analytical method (VESA) combines the flexibility of a numerical method, allowing for heterogeneous and geologically complex systems, with the efficiency and accuracy of an analytical method, thereby eliminating expensive grid refinement for sub-scale features. Through a series of benchmark problems, we show that VESA compares well with traditional numerical simulations and to a semi-analytical model which applies to appropriately simple systems. We believe that the VESA model provides the necessary accuracy and efficiency for applications of risk analysis in many CO₂ sequestration problems.     

Methylmercury Bioaccumulation in an Urban Estuary: Delaware River,USA

Spatial variation in mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation in urban coastal watersheds reflects complex interactions between Hg sources, land use, and environmental gradients. We examined MeHg concentrations in fauna from the Delaware River estuary, and related these measurements to environmental parameters and human impacts on the waterway. The sampling sites followed a north to south gradient of increasing salinity, decreasing urban influence, and increasing marsh cover. Although mean total Hg in surface sediments (top 4 cm) peaked in the urban estuarine turbidity maximum and generally decreased downstream, surface sediment MeHg concentrations showed no spatial patterns consistent with the examined environmental gradients, indicating urban influence on Hg loading to the sediment but not subsequent methylation. Surface water particulate MeHg concentration showed a positive correlation with marsh cover whereas dissolved MeHg concentrations were slightly elevated in the estuarine turbidity maximum region. Spatial patterns of MeHg bioaccumulation in resident fauna varied across taxa. Small fish showed increased MeHg concentrations in the more urban/industrial sites upstream, with concentrations generally decreasing farther downstream. Invertebrates either showed no clear spatial patterns in MeHg concentrations (blue crabs, fiddler crabs) or increasing concentrations further downstream (grass shrimp). Best-supported linear mixed models relating tissue concentration to environmental variables reflected these complex patterns, with species specific model results dominated by random site effects with a combination of particulate MeHg and landscape variables influencing bioaccumulation in some species. The data strengthen accumulating evidence that bioaccumulation in estuaries can be decoupled from sediment MeHg concentration, and that drivers of MeHg production and fate may vary within a small region.     

Marine sediment contamination of an industrial site at Port of Bagnoli, Gulf of Naples, Southern Italy

For almost one century an important steel plant has been active at the Bagnoli industrial area (Naples, Southern Italy). The environmental survey of near shore and offshore sediments has been carried out as fundamental part of a clean up project. The characteristics of the area, supposed type of pollution, national and international protocols in force were taken into consideration in designing sampling schemes and selecting analytical parameters. For this work, sediment grain size, PAHs, PCBs, trace elements, total hydrocarbons and organic matter were considered. Factor analysis evidenced two main types of pollution in the proximity of the industrial plant, both probably attributable to the activity of the industrial site. The first one, due to Cd, Pb, Zn and Mn seems determined by localised activities at the southern part of the plant. The second one, due to Fe and Mn, appears directly linked to the whole contaminated area.     

Evaluation of the health risk from water contamination in the city of Tandil, Argentina

The paper focuses on the concentration of nitrates detected in superficial waters (lake and streams) and groundwater (wells) used as sources of water supply. It attempts to determine the level of risk due to the presence of urban industrial uses and correlate it with the quality of urban life, in order to determine social vulnerability to the risk of industrial contamination. A geographic information system (GIS) was constructed with layers for various census data, topographic and landuse features and the location of water samples. An index of quality of life was developed using selected variables. This was then compared to the essential services provision data and the results of the water sample analyses. The concentration of nitrates (mg/l or ppm) in the water samples was determined. These values were translated into maps of contaminants, which were then correlated with their possible sources and with the quality of life of the population affected. The concentration of nitrates in wells has been considered alarming, but more concern has been expressed about concentrations in the public water supply network. Spatial correlation between areas with high risk of contaminated water and areas with the worst quality of life, indicates the importance of controlling chemical contamination, and demands improvements in the public water supply network and revision of the theory of social vulnerability.     

Mapping adaptive capacity and smallholder agriculture: applying expert knowledge at the landscape scale

The impacts of climate change exacerbate the myriad challenges faced by smallholder farmers in the Tropics. In many of these same regions, there is a lack of current, consistent, and spatially-explicit data, which severely limits the ability to locate smallholder communities, map their adaptive capacity, and target adaptation measures to these communities. To explore the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in three data-poor countries in Central America, we leveraged expert input through in-depth mapping interviews to locate agricultural landscapes, identify smallholder farming systems within them, and characterize different components of farmer adaptive capacity. We also used this input to generate an index of adaptive capacity that allows for comparison across countries and farming systems. Here, we present an overview of the expert method used, followed by an examination of our results, including the intercountry variation in expert knowledge and the characterization of adaptive capacity for both subsistence and smallholder coffee farmers. While this approach does not replace the need to collect regular and consistent data on farming systems (e.g. agricultural census), our study demonstrates a rapid assessment approach for using expert input to fill key data gaps, enable trans-boundary comparisons, and to facilitate the identification of the most vulnerable smallholder communities for adaptation planning in data-poor environments that are typical of tropical regions. One potential benefit from incorporating this approach is that it facilitates the systematic consideration of field-based and regional experience into assessments of adaptive capacity, contributing to the relevance and utility of adaptation plans.     

Regional modeling of climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture and ecosystems in Central America

Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research.     

Comparison of climatic threshold of geographical distribution between dominant plants and surface pollen in China

The geographical distribution of dominant plant species in China was georeferenced and climatic variables were interpolated into all grids.Accordingly,the percentage distributions of principal pollen taxa based on 1860 surface pollen sites in China were selected and the related climate values were interpolated with the same method. The geographical and climatic comparison between the two data-sets indicated that the climate threshold of most pollen taxa from surface pollen is coherent with plant distributions. The climatic envelopes of dominant plant are mostly accordant with those of pollen taxa at certain levels. However, some distinct offsets of the climate ranges exist between the two datasets for most pollen taxa identified at family level, such as Ericaceae,Asteraceae, Poaceae and Chenopodiaceae. The present study provides for the first time rich information on temperature and precipitation in relation to pollen and plant distribution based on the datasets on a continental scale useful for global ecological modeling and Quaternary palaeoclimate reconstruction.     

Spatial variation of biological and pedological properties in an area affected by a metallurgical mercury plant: Almadenejos (Spain)

Almadén, Spain, has the most important known cinnabar deposits, which have provided a third of the entire world production of Hg, and has been the scene for numerous studies on Hg. This mining district includes several mines where cinnabar has been extracted in the past two millennia as well as facilities related to the production of primary Hg. The aim of the work is to evaluate the spatial distribution of Hg in the soil-plant system within an area where intense activity occurred over a long period. An abandoned metallurgical plant from the 17th-18th centuries was chosen as the study area, situated in Almadenejos a distance of 12 km from Almadén. Nowadays, this plot is covered with cinnabar mine tailings and it is used by village inhabitants for livestock grazing. The area has elevated Hg concentrations of natural origin and from human activities. Soil parameters are similar within the study area; however, data reveal high variability in total and available Hg concentrations in soils, making it difficult to establish a trend. Marrubium vulgare L. has been studied due to its abundance in the plot, and there is no evidence of phenological toxicity. In spite of elevated Hg concentrations, high biological activity is found in the sampled soils. All these characteristics, spatial variation, high Hg concentration, good biological activity, make this a particularly good area for studies involving Hg.     

Local Perceptions of the Livelihood and Conservation Benefits of Small-Scale Livelihood Projects in Rural Madagascar

Small-scale livelihood projects are widely used in forest conservation and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)+ initiatives; however, there is limited information on how effective these projects are at delivering livelihood and conservation benefits. We explored local perceptions of the effectiveness of small-scale livelihood projects in delivering livelihood and conservation benefits in eastern Madagascar. Our results suggest that small-scale livelihood projects vary greatly in their ability to deliver livelihood benefits, and that the type of livelihood project (e.g., agriculture, beekeeping, fish farming, or livestock production) has a significant impact on which livelihood benefits are delivered. Many small-scale livelihood projects, regardless of project type, are perceived to contribute to forest conservation efforts. Our study highlights that small-scale livelihood projects have the potential to contribute to both improved livelihoods and enhanced forest conservation, but also illustrates the need for more information on the factors that lead to project success.