Sensitivity of crop yields and land resource potential to climatic change in Ontario,Canada

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ and other greenhouse gases are expected to contribute to a global warming. This paper examines the potential implications of a climatic change corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ on crop production opportunities throughout Ontario, a major food producing region in Canada. The climate is projected to become warmer and drier, but the extent of these shifts are expected to vary from region to region within Ontario. The effect of this altered climate on crop yields and the area of land capable of supporting specific crops varies according to region, soil quality and crop type. Most notable are the enhanced opportunities for grains and oilseeds in the northern regions, and the diminished production prospects for most crops in the most southerly parts of Ontario.     

Atmosphere-ocean interaction in mid-latitude storms

Summary Surface fluxes of heat, latent heat, and momentum, and entrainment fluxes and vertical motion at the top of the boundary layer have been calculated for limited regions of several mid-latitude ocean storms. Results have been combined to describe distributions of boundary layer processes which are characteristic of such storms. Surface heat fluxes have important effects in the region west of cold or occluded fronts and are relatively unimportant within a band of about 200 km width east of fronts. Entrainment in pre-frontal regions is driven largely by vertical shear at the top of the boundary layer, while in post-frontal regions it is driven largely by surface heat flux. Boundary layers are well defined in regions more than roughly 200 km east or west of fronts; but closer to fronts boundary layers are not well defined due to the combined effects of entrainment, condensation, and vertical motion associated with the distribution of surface stress.With 12 Figures     

Biodiversity conservation and pastoralism—reducing herd size in a communal livestock production system in Richtersveld National Park

Biodiversity is a critical component of the natural environment and the protection of it often meant the displacement of local communities in developing countries. The Richtersveld National Park (South Africa) is unusual in that it forms part of the Richtersveld communal rangeland and is currently managed for goat and sheep farming as well as biodiversity conservation under a contractual agreement. These two objectives are not regarded as mutually compatible and have created tension between conservation management officials and pastoralists. We set out to examine the consequences of reducing herd size in a communal livestock production system in support of biodiversity conservation in a protected area. Kidding, animal offtake (sales and slaughter), mortality and herd persistence showed no clear incentives for an individual pastoralist to reduce herd size. Reducing herd size is not considered a recommended intervention for the conservation of biodiversity or livelihood improvement of pastoralists in the park. The future of the natural resources of the national park is dependent on a delicate balance between the needs of the pastoralists and the conservation of those very same resources that the pastoralists use.     

Comets, craters and cosmology

Peter Bond recounts another attempt to visit Mars, yet more data from Galileo and the benefits that result from applying a variety of instruments to a tricky problem.     

Chandra's X-ray vision seeks out black holes

The dark universe, in the form of black holes, has been under investigation during recent observations by space-based observatories, reports Peter Bond .     

Auroral precipitation and atmospheric vorticity at the 500 mb level

On the assumption that, in the long term, auroral and associated particle precipitation is uniform in magnetic time it can be shown that, due to the differing geometries in the northern and southern hemisphere, there exist two regions of maximum particle precipitation in different time zones in U.T. These are the midnight location of the auroral oval between about 1500–1800 h U.T. in the northern hemisphere and between 0000–0600 h U.T. in the southern hemisphere. These times correspond with the maxima of the indices am and am¹ for the respective winter periods.The northern hemisphere auroral zone precipitation maximum lies above the Siberian winter low pressure region at 500 mb heights which is displaced from the geographic pole. It is suggested that this relative location is basic to the Wilcox boundary crossing-absolute vorticity correlation.The southern hemisphere auroral zone precipitation maximum lies above the Antarctic low pressure region and is near the geographic pole. This results in the lack of a similar correlation as found by Burns.     

Wide-Field Camera for Gravitational Microlensing Survey: MOA-cam2

We have constructed a large, mosaic CCD camera called MOA-cam2 which has 4096 × 6144-pixelsto search for gravitational microlensing events. MOA-cam2 has three4096 × 2048-pixel SITe CCD chips, which have a very high quantum efficiency (nearly 80% in the wave region 500 to 800 nm),and three buttable sides. We have placed the threechips side by side with 100 m dead space. MOA-cam2 has been installed on the 61 cm Boller and Chivens telescope of the MOA collaboration at the Mt. John University Observatory (MJUO) in NewZealand since July 1998. The field coverage is 0.92° × 1.38° per exposure. The technical details of MOA-cam2 and the first images obtained with the Boller and Chivens telescope are presented. MOA-cam2 introduces a second phase of research on gravitational microlensing by the MOA collaboration.     

On the recent warming of the southeastern Bering Sea shelf

During the last decade, the southeastern Bering Sea shelf has undergone a warming of 3 °C that is closely associated with a marked decrease of sea ice over the area. This shift in the physical environment of the shelf can be attributed to a combination of mechanisms, including the presence over the eastern Bering Sea shelf of a relatively mild air mass during the winter, especially from 2000 to 2005; a shorter ice season caused by a later fall transition and/or an earlier spring transition; increased flow through Unimak Pass during winter, which introduces warm Gulf of Alaska water onto the southeastern shelf; and the feedback mechanism whereby warmer ocean temperatures during the summer delay the southward advection of sea ice during winter. While the relative importance of these four mechanisms is difficult to quantify, it is evident that for sea ice to form, cold arctic winds must cool the water column. Sea ice is then formed in the polynyas during periods of cold north winds, and this ice is advected southward over the eastern shelf. The other three mechanisms can modify ice formation and melt, and hence its extent. In combination, these four mechanisms have served to temporally and spatially limit ice during the 5-year period (2001–2005). Warming of the eastern Bering Sea shelf could have profound influences on the ecosystem of the Bering Sea—from modification of the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom to the northward advance of subarctic species and the northward retreat of arctic species.