The helicity constraint in turbulent dynamos with shear

The evolution of magnetic fields is studied using simulations of forced helical turbulence with strong imposed shear. After some initial exponential growth, the magnetic field develops a large-scale travelling wave pattern. The resulting field structure possesses magnetic helicity, which is conserved in a periodic box by the ideal magnetohydrodynamics equations and can hence only change on a resistive time-scale. This strongly constrains the growth time of the large-scale magnetic field, but less strongly constrains the length of the cycle period. Comparing this with the case without shear, the time-scale for large-scale field amplification is shortened by a factor Q , which depends on the relative importance of shear and helical turbulence, and which also controls the ratio of toroidal to poloidal field. The results of the simulations can be reproduced qualitatively and quantitatively with a mean-field α Ω-dynamo model with alpha-effect and turbulent magnetic diffusivity coefficients that are less strongly quenched than in the corresponding α ²-dynamo.     

The NASA Astrophysics Data System: Free Access to the Astronomical Literature On-line and through Email

The Astrophysics Data System (ADS) provides access to the astronomical literature through the World Wide Web. It is a NASA funded project and access to all the ADS services is free to everybody world-wide. The ADS Abstract Service allows the searching of four databases with abstracts in Astronomy, Instrumentation, Physics/Geophysics, and the LANL Preprints with a total of over 2.2 million references. The system also provides access to reference and citation information, links to on-line data, electronic journal articles, and other on-line information. The ADS Article Service contains the full articles for most of the astronomical literature back to volume 1. It contains the scanned pages of all the major journals (Astrophysical Journal, Astronomical Journal, Astronomy & Astrophysics, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, and Solar Physics), as well as most smaller journals back to volume 1.The ADS can be accessed through any web browser without signup or login. Alternatively an email interface is available that allows our users to execute queries via email and to retrieve scanned articles via email. This might be interesting for users on slow or unreliable links, since the email system will retry sending information automatically until the transfer is complete. There are now 9 mirror sites of the ADS available in different parts of the world to improve access. The ADS is available at: http://ads.harvard.edu This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A study of the kinematics of unusually H I‐rich galaxies

We examine the H I kinematics of the “Bluedisk” ensemble of 48 galaxies selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and observed in H I with the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope. The sample consists of 25 galaxies with a high H I mass fraction and a comparatively large control sample comprising 23 galaxies of comparable stellar mass, stellar mass surface density, redshift, and inclination. By studying the H I velocity fields of these galaxies, we investigate whether there are signatures of ongoing gas accretion: i.e. global asymmetries and indications for warping and kinematical lopsidedness. We find no enhanced kinematical asymmetries between the H I‐rich sample and the control sample galaxies, indicating no significant difference in kinematical signatures such as warping and lopsidedness. Furthermore, we find no difference in position angle and systemic velocity offset with respect to the optical between both sub‐samples. We therefore do not find compelling evidence for enhanced global asymmetry of the H I‐excess galaxies ensemble properties in comparison to the control sample galaxies. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.     

Statistical analysis of the temperature records for the Northern Territory of Australia

The Northern Territory of Australia has a unique situation of an extension larger than France and a population of 200,000, with only three meteorology stations open for more than 40 years, Darwin (DW), Alice Springs (AS) and Tennant Creek, and only two of them, DW and AS, providing data over 100 years, and from 500 to more than 1,000 km separating these stations and the stations in the neighbouring states of Australia. Homogenizations of data in between different measuring sites for the same location as well as the way to derive the missed data to complete at least 100 years from the neighbouring locations are analysed in details and the effects on the temperature trends are straightforwardly investigated. Using properly homogenised data over 130 years and a linear fitting, the warming maximum and minimum temperatures are +0.009 and +0.057 °C/10 years for Alice Springs and ?0.025 and 0.064 °C/10 years for Darwin. With the data available, the only option to produce warming trends is to overweight the cold years in the middle of the 1970s and the subsequent return to warmer temperatures. Starting from 1980, to compute trends, there is still a clear warming in Alice Springs, but also clear cooling in Tennant Creek, and a mixed behaviour with warming maximum temperatures and cooling minimum temperatures in Darwin.     

The Villalbeto de la Peña meteorite fall: II. Determination of atmospheric trajectory and orbit

Abstract— The L6 ordinary chondrite Villalbeto de la Peña fall occurred on January 4, 2004, at 16: 46: 45 ± 2 s UTC. The related daylight fireball was witnessed by thousands of people from Spain, Portugal, and southern France, and was also photographed and videotaped from different locations of León and Palencia provinces in Spain. From accurate astrometric calibrations of these records, we have determined the atmospheric trajectory of the meteoroid. The initial fireball velocity, calculated from measurements of 86 video frames, was 16.9 ± 0.4 km/s. The slope of the trajectory was 29.0 ± 0.6° to the horizontal, the recorded velocity during the main fragmentation at a height of 27.9 ± 0.4 km was 14.2 ± 0.2 km/s, and the fireball terminal height was 22.2 ± 0.2 km. The heliocentric orbit of the meteoroid resided in the ecliptic plane (i = 0.0 ± 0.2°), having a perihelion distance of 0.860 ± 0.007 AU and a semimajor axis of 2.3 ± 0.2 AU. Therefore, the meteorite progenitor body came from the Main Belt, like all previous determined meteorite orbits. The Villalbeto de la Peña fireball analysis has provided the ninth known orbit of a meteorite in the solar system.     

Orbital Elements of 2004 Perseid Meteoroids Perturbed by Jupiter

Jupiter and Saturn produce important gravitational impulses on meteoroids released by comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle. The meteoroids from this comet once released follow retrograde orbits that during their periodic approaches to these planets (within 1.6 and 0.9 A.U., respectively) are impulsed gaining orbital energy. This perturbation effect is translated into a net inward shift in the node of the perturbed meteoroids. Such geometry with Jupiter occurred in 2004 over a meteoroid trail ejected by this comet during the 1862 A.D. return of the comet to perihelion. In order to study the predicted outburst produced by one-revolution meteoroids, the Spanish Photographic Meteor Network (SPMN) performed an extensive campaign. As a part of this observational effort here are presented 10 accurate meteoroid orbits. We discuss their origin by comparing them with the theoretical orbital elements of the dust trails intercepting the Earth during the 2004 Perseid return.