Integrated methodology for flood risk assessment and application in urban communities of Pakistan

Flood disasters and its consequent damages are on the rise globally. Pakistan has been experiencing an increase in flood frequency and severity along with resultant damages in the past. In addition to the regular practices of loss and damage estimation, current focus is on risk assessment of hazard-prone communities. Risk measurement is complex as scholars engaged in disaster science and management use different quantitative models with diverse interpretations. This study tries to provide clarity in conceptualizing disaster risk and proposes a risk assessment methodology with constituent components such as hazard, vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity) and coping/adaptive capacity. Three communities from different urban centers in Pakistan have been selected based on high flood frequency and intensity. A primary survey was conducted in selected urban communities to capture data on a number of variables relating to flood hazard, vulnerability and capacity to compute flood risk index. Households were categorized into different risk levels, such as can manage risk, can survive and cope, and cannot cope. It was found that risk levels varied significantly across the households of the three communities. Metropolitan city was found to be highly vulnerable as compared to smaller cities due to weak capacity. Households living in medium town had devised coping mechanisms to manage risk. The proposed methodology is tested and found operational for risk assessment of flood-prone areas and communities irrespective of locations and countries.     

Investigation of Failed Slopes Based on a New Method of Back Analysis in Rock Masses: A Case Study

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Small variation in shear strength parameters results in remarkable changes in the safety factor (SF) of a rock slope. In this regard, rock mass strength of...     

On the Application of the Novel Thin Spray-on Liner (TSL): A Progress Report in Mining Operations

Stability is the main problem in underground excavations that can result in rock-related accidents or closure of mines. This is often controlled by the geological condition of the rockmass and the in situ stress field where excavation is being carried out. Over the years, conventional support systems such as bolts, shotcrete and mesh have been the standard support systems used in difficult ground conditions to maintain stability of underground openings. The novel Thin Spray Liner (TSL) is a technology with an improvement in terms of support capabilities for difficult geological conditions. This technology is predicted to replace conventional support systems, as it offers a significant yielding capacity that is better than that of the traditional techniques of controlling strata. The performance of the TSL lies between that of shotcrete and wire mesh. The TSL has numerous advantages regarding rock reinforcement such as rapid curing period, fast application, high tensile strength, high adhesion properties that prevent movement of rock keyblocks, improved cycle times, reduction in material-handling compared to shotcrete, and a significant ability to penetrate joints. These advantages increase the allowance for mechanisation and improvement of safety in excavations. Despite various benefits of TSLs, there are shortcomings which make end-users to be sceptical about the technology. This study provides a detailed review of the mechanism, properties, composition and types, as well as the general and mining applications of TSLs. It also describes the challenges faced by the mining industry and other end-users in accepting the technology as a solution for stability issues in underground openings. In addition, some insightful suggestions are made as recommendations for future work on the development of suitable, effective and efficient thin surface rock support technology within limitations/constraints.

     

Modeling three‐dimensional hydraulic fracture propagation using virtual multidimensional internal bonds

Propagation of fractures, especially those emanating from wellbores and closed natural fractures, often involves Mode I and Mode II, and at times Mode III, posing significant challenges to its numerical simulation. When an embedded inclined fracture is subjected to compression, the fracture edge is constrained by the surrounding materials so that its true propagation pattern cannot be simulated by 2D models. In this article, a virtual multidimensional internal bond (VMIB) model is presented to simulate three‐dimensional (3D) fracture propagation. The VMIB model bridges the processes of macro fracture and micro bond rupture. The macro 3D constitutive relation in VMIB is derived from the 1D bond in the micro scale and is implemented in a 3D finite element method. To represent the contact and friction between fracture surfaces, a 3D element partition method is employed. The model is applied to simulate fracture propagation and coalescence in typical laboratory experiments and is used to analyze the propagation of an embedded fracture. Simulation results for single and multiple fractures illustrate 3D features of the tensile and compressive fracture propagation, especially the propagation of a Mode III fracture. The results match well with the experimental observation, suggesting that the presented method can capture the main features of 3D fracture propagation and coalescence. Moreover, by developing an algorithm for applying pressure on the fracture surfaces, propagation of a natural fracture is also simulated. The result illustrates an interesting and important phenomenon of Mode III fracture propagation, namely the fracture front segmentation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers

Abstract

The study of sediment load is important for its implications to the environment and water resources engineering. Four models were considered in the study of suspended sediment concentration prediction: artificial neural networks (ANNs), neuro-fuzzy model (NF), conjunction of wavelet analysis and neuro-fuzzy (WNF) model, and the conventional sediment rating curve (SRC) method. Using data from a US Geological Survey gauging station, the suspended sediment concentration predicted by the WNF model was in satisfactory agreement with the measured data. Also the proposed WNF model generated reasonable predictions for the extreme values. The cumulative suspended sediment load estimated by this model was much higher than that predicted by the other models, and is close to the observed data. However, in the current modelling, the ANN, NF and SRC models underestimated sediment load. The WNF model was successful in reproducing the hysteresis phenomenon, but the SRC method was not able to model this behaviour. In general, the results showed that the NF model performed better than the ANN and SRC models.

Citation Mirbagheri, S. A., Nourani, V., Rajaee, T. & Alikhani, A. (2010) Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1175–1189.     

Isotopic analysis to quantify the role of the Indian monsoon on water resources of selected river basins in the Himalayas

Western disturbances (WDs) and Indian summer monsoon (ISM) led precipitation play a central role in the Himalayan water budget. Estimating their contributions to water resource is although a challenging but essential for hydrologic understanding and effective water resource management. In this study, we used stable water isotope data of precipitation and surface waters to estimate the contribution of ISM and WDs to the water resources in three mountainous river basins - Indus, Bhagirathi and Teesta river basins of western, central and Eastern Himalayas. The study reveals distinct seasonality in isotope characteristics of precipitation and surface waters in each river basin is due to changes in moisture source, hydrometeorology and relief. Despite steady spatial variance in the slope and intercept of regression lines from the Teesta to Indus and the Bhagirathi river basins, the slope and intercept are close to the global meteoric water line and reported local meteoric water line of other regions in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau. The two-component end-member mixing method using d-excess as tracer were used to estimate the contribution from ISM and WD led precipitation to surface water in aforementioned river basins. The results suggest that the influence of the ISM on the water resources is high (>72% to annual river flow) in Teesta river basin (eastern Himalayas), while as the WDs led precipitation is dominantly contributing (>70% average annual river flow) to the surface waters in the Indus river basin (western Himalayas). The contribution of ISM and WD led precipitation in Bhagirathi river basin is 60% and 40%, respectively. The findings demonstrate that the unusual changes in the ISM and WD moisture dynamics have the potential to affect the economy and food security of the region, which is dependent on the availability of water resources. The obtained results are of assistance to policy makers/mangers to make use of the information for better understanding hydrologic response amid unusual behaviour of the dual monsoon system over the region.     

Dynamic vertical compliance of strip foundations in layered soils

In this paper, results of a detailed investigation on the dynamic response of rigid strip foundations in viscoelastic soils under vertical excitation are presented. An advanced boundary element algorithm developed by incorporating isoparametric quadratic elements and a sophisticated self-adapting numerical integration scheme has been used for this investigation. Foundations supported on three types of soil profiles, namely, homogeneous half-space, stratum-over-half-space and stratum-over-bedrock are considered. The influence of material properties like Poisson's ratio and material damping as well as the influence of geometrical properties such as depth of embedment and layer thickness are studied. The effect of the type of contact at the soil-foundation interface is also investigated.     

Stiffness identification of a tall building during construction period using ambient tests

Ambient response measurements were made on an eighteen-storey building at three different stages of construction to detect any changes in the frequencies, mode shapes and stiffness with construction. The first nine frequencies and corresponding mode shapes for each stage of construction are found. A comparison is made among these mode shapes and frequencies and with the mode shapes and frequencies of an analytical model incorporating beams, columns, shear walls, panels and diagonal elements. The added effects, on frequencies and mode shapes, of non-structural elements such as stairs, elevators, claddings and partition walls are studied. Using Improved Statistical Structural Identification, an attempt is made to study the stiffening effect of non-structural elements by updating the stiffness matrix of the building.     

Soil properties and moisture characteristics and their relationship with crop mid-day stress in the Sudan Gezira

This study is mainly about the relationship of the moisture holding and release capacity of soils with their texture, particularly the clay fraction. Soil samples collected from various sites in the Sudan Gezira were analysed for physical and chemical properties and moisture characteristics. Generally the soils were clayey except the recent alluvium which was loamy. The pH was alkaline and the electric conductivity < 1.0 dS m^–1. The studied soils were calcareous and very poor in organic matter, their intermediate to high water holding capacity being due mainly to the presence of large quantities of clay. Matric potentials of –0.4 to –1.5 MPa reduced soil moisture for all types of soils but the effects were not necessarily quantitatively equal. Permanent wilting point — moisture content at – 1.5 MPa — varied widely (10.5 – 22.0%) amongst the different soils and this was mainly attributed to texture and mineralogy of the soil clays. Bulk density decreased with increase in clay content. Calcium carbonate content was found to have no apparent relationship with the moisture content of these soils. The amount of silt fraction seems to have an overriding effect on the relationship between soil moisture availability in the recent alluvium soil and its subsequent release to growing plants. The results are discussed in relation to the phenomenon of mid-day stress observed in all grown crops of the Sudan Gezira.