Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during Late Summer in Weak La Nia Years: Contrast between 1981 and 2013

Both 1981 and 2013 were weak La Niña years with a similar sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical Pacific, yet the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during August exhibited an opposite anomaly in the two years. A comparison indicates that, in the absence of a strong SST anomaly in the tropics, the cold advection from Eurasian high latitudes and the convection of the western Pacific warm pool play important roles in influencing the strength and position of the WPSH in August. In August 1981, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height was characterized by a meridional circulation with a strong ridge in the Ural Mountains and a deep trough in Siberia, which provided favorable conditions for cold air invading into the lower latitudes. Accordingly, the geopotential height to the north of the WPSH was reduced by the cold advection anomaly from high latitudes, resulting in an eastward retreat of the WPSH. Moreover, an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the subtropical western Pacific, excited by enhanced warm pool convection, also contributed to the eastward retreat of the WPSH. By contrast, the influence from high latitudes was relatively weak in August 2013 due to a zonal circulation pattern over Eurasia, and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation induced by suppressed warm pool convection also facilitated the westward extension of the WPSH. Therefore, the combined effects of the high latitude and tropical circulations may contribute a persistent anomaly of the WPSH in late summer, despite the tropical SST anomaly being weak.     

Recent significant tornadoes in China

正1.Introduction Compared with the United States,whose annual number of tornadoes can exceed 1000,the average number of tornadoes per year in China over the past half a century is estimated to be fewer than 100(Fan and Yu,2015),even though both countries are located in a similar latitudinal zone of the Northern Hemisphere.The annual average recorded number of F1(Fujita scale)or EF1(enhanced Fujita scale)intensity or higher tornadoes in China between 1961 and 2010 is about     

黔西南州区域自动站气象资料绘图系统的研制

随着气象服务的不断推进,用户对气象服务产品的要求越来越高,提高气象服务产品的质量对于基层气象台站来说显得至关重要。目前,区域气象站的建设已覆盖到各乡镇,将这些区域气象站资料用直观的色斑图来显示,可有效提高气象服务质量和服务水平。系统综合使用VB、Fortran、Gr ADS等技术,实现对区域自动站气象资料的查询、处理与绘图等功能,并可分县制作绘图边界和色斑图,为决策气象服务提供精美素材。     

基于作物模型的河南省旱稻干旱风险评估

采用作物模型与数理统计相结合的方法,利用长期历史气象资料,以作物模型和地理信息系统技术为工具,系统分析了河南地区旱稻生育期水分盈亏情况。以模型模拟的雨养条件下实际蒸散量相对于潜在条件下的蒸散量(即需水量)的亏缺率,即水分亏缺指数,以雨养条件下产量相对于潜在产量的损失率(即灾损指数)作为产量灾损强度评价指标,从受旱程度和产量损失两个角度构建干旱风险评估模型,进行干旱风险评估。结果表明:河南省旱稻生育期集中在6—9月,水分亏缺最多的阶段为出苗—穗分化阶段,水分亏缺指数变化在0.50~0.60,其次是开花—成熟阶段和穗分化—开花阶段,水分亏缺指数变化在0.11~0.43;全生育期水分亏缺指数在0.36~0.50。出苗—穗分化阶段干旱发生的风险最大,其次是开花—成熟阶段,穗分化—开花阶段的最小。河南旱稻生育期干旱风险呈现为由东南向西北逐渐升高的分布,其中三门峡、济源西部一带风险最高,洛阳南部和南阳西北部一带最低,黄河以北大部地区和豫东、豫南地区风险居中。     

风云卫星数据服务评价指标的验证分析

简述了目前我国风云卫星数据服务以及气象服务效益评估业务的现状,利用层次分析法提出风云卫星数据服务评价的6个1级指标和19个2级指标。设计了风云卫星数据服务评测量表,并采用分半信度、因子分析等方法对量表作信度和效度分析,结果表明所设计的评测量表具有良好的信度和效度,确定了包括服务平台易用性、服务流程规范性、服务响应及时性、服务内容完整性、服务工作主动性、服务宣传广泛性等6个方面的风云卫星数据服务评价指标。     

上海市PM_(10)浓度四季遥感模型研究

通过分析2001—2012年上海市PM_(10)浓度(由API(Air Pollution Index)转化得到)的变化规律,构建了上海市PM_(10)浓度的遥感反演模型。结果表明:1)上海市PM_(10)浓度存在季节性变化,应分别建立遥感反演模型。2)分析MODIS气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Depth,AOD)产品与PM_(10)浓度之间的相关性发现,AOD须经过垂直和湿度订正才可与PM_(10)建立较好的关系。3)结合垂直和湿度订正分别建立的上海市PM_(10)浓度春夏秋冬四季的遥感反演模型均通过了拟合度检验,其中春季模型采用指数函数、夏季和秋季模型采用二次多项式函数、冬季采用幂函数、全年采用二次多项式函数,利用此四季模型反演上海市PM_(10)浓度具有较高的可信度。     

BDS／GPS 组合 RTK 定位性能分析

针对单系统RTK存在可见卫星数少等问题,文中研究BDS/GPS站间单差的RTK算法模型,该模型采用二次型函数部分最小化及LAMBDA方法联合搜索模糊度。利用该模型分析BDS/GPS组合RTK的定位性能,通过短基线实测数据分析表明:站间单差RTK模型与双差模型是等价的;BDS/GPS组合系统相比于单一系统,明显提高定位的稳健性和精度,改善模糊度固定的成功率。     

结合多尺度纹理特征的遥感影像面向对象分类

地物具有多尺度的特点,单一尺度难以准确描述遥感影像包含的地物纹理信息。利用我国自行研发的高分一号遥感影像数据,采用灰度共生矩阵对第一主成分进行纹理特征提取,利用Jeffries-Matusit距离选择多尺度组合,并通过单一纹理结合多光谱数据的分类精度,以及纹理特征间的相关性,最终选择多尺度纹理特征组合进行面向对象分类。研究结果表明:结合多尺度纹理特征组合的面向对象GF-1影像分类能有效提取地物信息,总体分类精度达到81.75%,Kappa系数0.78。     

Comparative Study of the Carbon Emission Situation and Goals between China and India

As the two large developing and populous countries, China and India face the dual challenges of economic development and climate change. Both of them are active in carbon emissions reduction, while India also bears the pressure of being “benchmarked” against China. With taking China and India as the sample of a comparative analysis, and the statistical value of a long sequence as the basic analysis data, based on the detailed analysis and comparison of carbon emissions history, the carbon emissions situation of the two countries from various dimensions including economic development, energy reserves and consumption, etc. were comparatively analyzed. The carbon intensity and energy structure after achieving the objectives were measured and compared by focusing on the carbon emissions reduction targets in China and India. The comparative results show that: China’s total carbon emissions are greater than India’s, but the growth rate of emissions, per capita emissions are significantly lower than India’s, while the carbon intensity decreases significantly faster than that of India. China has taken more efforts to make commitments to carbon reduction than India. With India’s energy structure adjustment, the situation will be gradually better than that in China.     

北京市大兴新城水源地保护区划分

北京地下水资源持续超采,已出现水资源枯竭和浅层地下水大面积污染问题,建立饮用水源地保护区是保护地下水水源的有效手段。本文应用数值模拟法和公式法,对北京大兴新城水源地保护区进行划分。考虑大兴水厂所在地水文地质条件,分别对第四系和基岩进行保护区划分,对不同分区进行叠加,得出水源地保护区范围。通过两种方法计算出的保护区面积相差不大,但是数值模拟法计算出的二级保护区面积比公式法计算的结果小5.5km2,主要因为公式法计算时没有考虑地下水含水层边界条件和岩溶地下水富水性不均一等因素,而数值模拟模型在水文地质条件的基础上进行水源地保护区划分,比较符合水源地所在区域实际的水文地质条件。通过对划分结果的对比和分析可以看出,公式法划分水源保护区的方法简便易行,但是概化结果与实际地质条件差异较大。数值模拟法对含水层结构和水文地质条件的概化相对客观、详尽,但是该法应用过程较复杂。在实际划分水源保护区的工作中,应将公式法和数值模拟法结合应用。