基于地震道多参数反演的岩性转换方法及其应用

利用地震数据来描述地层岩性特性,从而解决地下的岩性划分问题,是地球物理反演技术发展的目标。利用测井曲线进行常规岩性反演得到的波阻抗等数据体,仅能间接地反映目标区域的岩性分布情况。多参数反演技术利用地震数据的解释层位为控制手段,以测井曲线为出发点进行外推内插,并通过主组分分析形成初始地质模型,然后进行模型估算,最终得到波阻抗、伽马、电阻率等多参数数据体。利用阈值自动分层方法,依据物性与岩性的相关性,确定单个或多个参数的阈值对多参数体进行岩性转换。渭北平原某煤田的三维地震多参数数据体岩性转换实例表明,多参数岩性反演和基于阈值的岩性转换方法具有较好的适用性,其反演后的界面形态对应较好,单井岩性与转换后的岩性吻合度较高。     

Evaluation of impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin,China

Variations in streamflows of five tributaries of the Poyang Lake basin, China, because of the influence of human activities and climate change were evaluated using the Australia Water Balance Model and multivariate regression. Results indicated that multiple regression models were appropriate with precipitation, potential evapotranspiration of the current month, and precipitation of the last month as explanatory variables. The NASH coefficient for the Australia Water Balance Model was larger than 0.842, indicating satisfactory simulation of streamflow of the Poyang Lake basin. Comparison indicated that the sensitivity method could not exclude the benchmark‐period human influence, and the human influence on streamflow changes was overestimated. Generally, contributions of human activities and climate change to streamflow changes were 73.2% and 26.8% respectively. However, human‐induced and climate‐induced influences on streamflow were different in different river basins. Specifically, climate change was found to be the major driving factor for the increase of streamflow within the Rao, Xin, and Gan River basins; however, human activity was the principal driving factor for the increase of streamflow of the Xiu River basin and also for the decrease of streamflow of the Fu River basin. Meanwhile, impacts of human activities and climate change on streamflow variations were distinctly different at different temporal scales. At the annual time scale, the increase of streamflow was largely because of climate change and human activities during the 1970s–1990s and the decrease of streamflow during the 2000s. At the seasonal scale, climate change was the main factor behind the increase of streamflow in the spring and summer season. Human activities increase the streamflow in autumn and winter, but decrease the streamflow in spring. At the monthly scale, different influences of climate change and human activities were detected. Climate change was the main factor behind the decrease of streamflow during May to June and human activities behind the decrease of streamflow during February to May. Results of this study can provide a theoretical basis for basin‐scale water resources management under the influence of climate change and human activities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

剪力键对隔震桥梁地震反应的影响

减、隔震支座中增设剪力键,能提高桥梁的综合性能。为精确分析隔震桥梁的地震反应,建立了设置剪力键的减、隔震支座滞回模型,提出了剪力键的数值模拟方法。以某连续梁桥为背景,建立了全桥有限元分析模型,通过3种情况下桥梁地震反应分析结果的对比研究,验证了剪力键模拟方法的有效性。变化剪力键的水平承载力大小,分析了剪力键对减、隔震桥梁地震反应的影响。结果表明,剪力键对隔震桥梁的墩底弯矩有较大影响,隔震桥梁的地震反应分析时需考虑剪力键的影响。     

芬兰马斯塔瓦纳磁铁矿-钛铁矿矿床地质特征与成因

马斯塔瓦纳磁铁矿-钛铁矿床位于芬兰北部,属于芬诺斯堪迪亚地盾,辉长岩是主要的含矿岩体。矿石类型主要为钛磁铁矿,含矿岩石为含钛磁铁矿、钒钛磁铁矿辉长岩。浸染状矿石金属矿物以钛磁铁矿为主,次为钛铁矿。地球化学特征研究表明,马斯塔瓦纳矿床的Zr、Hf、U、Th在含矿辉长岩中含量非常稳定,均小于10×10-6,反映了岩浆成因的特征。由于马斯塔瓦纳矿床形成时构造环境不稳定,原始岩浆来不及长期彻底地分异,导致岩石的地球化学参数等均具有过渡特征。芬兰马斯塔瓦纳矿床的成岩成矿过程主要分为2个期次:成岩期(形成辉长岩体)和主成矿期(岩浆期形成铁矿)。初步研究表明,芬兰马斯塔瓦纳铁-钛-钒矿床与国内的"大庙式"和"攀西式"铁矿有所不同,2个国内矿床处于相对稳定的板内构造环境,而芬兰马斯塔瓦纳矿床产于特殊的造山带而非稳定的克拉通构造环境。     

中国极端降水事件时空特征及其对夏季温度响应

基于中国1951-2014年728个气象站点日降水数据,利用POT抽样、变异点分析、趋势分析、分段回归等方法全面分析中国极端降水事件（量级、频率与发生时间）非平稳性特征及其对夏季温度响应。研究结果发现中国极端降水量级有明显变异特征,但无显著趋势变化,中国极端降水频率则相反。并且中国极端降水次数在全国大部分区域有显著增加趋势。另外,研究还表明变异点对中国极端降水量级和频率趋势特征有明显的改变,对极端降水发生时间趋势特征改变较弱;中国极端降水发生时间在中南部呈显著上升趋势,其他区域趋势性不显著。中国大部分区域夏季温度呈上升或显著上升趋势,且变异特征显著。在转折点前,中国大部分区域如西部干旱区东南部、东部干旱区西南部、华北区、华中区和西南区北部夏季温度呈下降或显著下降趋势;在转折点后,上述区域夏季温度转为上升或显著上升趋势。     

1961~2010年中国农业洪旱灾害时空特征、成因及影响

搜集并分析了全国29个省份（不包括港、澳、台地区）1961~2010年农业洪旱灾害数据,深入探讨了中国洪旱灾害时空变异规律及其对粮食产量的影响。研究结果表明：中国大部分省份农业洪涝、干旱灾害具有明显的突变和趋势特征。中国中部、中西部及西北部洪涝灾害呈显著上升趋势;西北、东北地区及云南等地区干旱灾害呈显著上升趋势。除华北和东北地区外,洪涝灾害对农业的威胁日益严峻,而干旱灾害则无显著变化。这对中国粮食安全形成了重大挑战,尤其是西部以及北部地区粮食灾损率和灾损量显著上升。降水时空分布发生变化以及人类活动共同影响了中国农业洪涝、干旱时空变化特征。     

An off-and-towards-equilibrium strategy for vibrational control of structures

Traditional control strategies have difficulty handling nonlinear behavior of structures, time variable features and parameter uncertainties of structural control systems under seismic excitation. An off-and-towardsequilibrium （OTE） strategy combined with fuzzy control is presented in this paper to overcome these difficulties. According to the OTE strategy, the control force is designed from the viewpoint of a mechanical relationship between the motions of the structure, the exciting force and the control force. The advantage of the OTE strategy is that it can be used for a variety of control systems. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed strategy, the seismic performance of a three-story shear building with an Active Tendon System （ATS） using a Fuzzy Logic Controller （FLC） is studied. The main advantage of the fuzzy controller is its inherent robustness and ability to handle any nonlinear behavior of structures. However, there are no design guidelines to set up the corresponding control rule table for a FLC. Based on the proposed strategy for the FLC, a control rule table associated with the building under study is developed, which then allows formation of a detailed algorithm. The results obtained in this study show that the proposed strategy performs slightly better than the linear quadratic regulator （LQR） strategy, while possessing several advantages over the LQR controller. Consequently, the feasibility and validity of the proposed strategy are verified.     

晚第三纪中国西北干旱化的发展及其与北极冰盖形成演化和青藏高原隆升的关系

对甘肃酉峰晚第三纪红土标准剖面的研究揭示出,该区红土下部（６．２ＭａＢ．Ｐ．前）是红化的土壤物质与其它物质一起经水流搬运（坡积作用为主）再堆积的产物;中部（６．２～３．４ＭａＢ．Ｐ．）未发现再搬运的痕迹,是风尘堆积经风化和频繁地下水位波动作用所形成,不具明显的土壤发生学层次,其中的碳酸盐富积层不是成壤碳酸盐,而与地下水作用密切相关;上部（３４～２．６ＭａＢ．Ｐ．）是典型的风尘堆积－土壤序列。由于中国西北和中亚干旱区的存在是黄河中游风尘堆积的前提条件,该区风尘物质的堆积起始于６．２ＭａＢ．Ｐ．前后标志着源区干旱化的加剧,并已达到相当高的程度。对整个序列的分析表明,源区干旱化程度在６．２～５．４ＭａＢ．Ｐ．期间较高,此后降低,在３．４ＭａＢ．Ｐ．和２．６ＭａＢ．Ｐ．又两次显著增强。上述历史与北极冰盖的起源和演化历史具有高度的一致性,若干重大转变与青藏高原隆升也有时代上的耦合性。本文认为,北极冰盖的形成演化和高原隆升都是中国西北和中亚地区干旱化发展的重要驱动因素,二者对西伯利亚高压的形成和发展的影响及高原对暖湿气流的阻挡可能是导致于旱化的重要途径。     

断裂分维值对矿产资源预测的指示意义—— 以西藏地区为例

应用分形几何的原理,采用数盒维法计算了西藏地区（Ｄ＝１７８４）及其内部羌塘（Ｄ＝１２１７）、比如盆地西部（Ｄ＝１２２７）、措勤（Ｄ＝１２９７）三个油气勘探区和三江金属矿产勘探区（Ｄ＝１８２０）的断裂分维值。分别与四川盆地含油气区、江西德兴和湘中金属矿产区的断裂分维值比较,发现含油气区的断裂分维值大致介于１＜Ｄ＜１２４,明显低于整个区域断裂分维值,Ｄ值越小,越有利于油气成藏;金属矿产区Ｄ＞１．８０左右,大于整个区域分维质,Ｄ值越大,矿床规模越大。此预测了羌塘、比如盆地西部具备含油气区的构造条件,三江地区的构造情况利于形成大规模金属矿床。     

Nonstationarity and clustering of flood characteristics and relations with the climate indices in the Poyang Lake basin,China

The magnitude, occurrence rate and occurrence timing of floods in the Poyang Lake basin were analysed. The flood series were acquired by annual and seasonal maximum flow (AMF) sampling and peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling. Nonstationarity and uncertainty were analysed using kernel density estimation and the bootstrap resampling methods. Using the relationships between flood indices and climate indices, i.e. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the potential causes of flooding were investigated. The results indicate that (1) the magnitudes of annual and seasonal AMF- and POT-based sampled floods generally exhibit an increasing tendency; (2) the highest occurrence rates of floods identified were during the 1990s, when the flood-affected crop area, flood-damaged crop area and crop failure area reached the highest levels; and (3) ENSO and IOD are the major climate indices that significantly correlate with the magnitude and frequency of floods of the following year.

EDITOR A. Castellarin ASSOCIATE EDITOR T. Kjeldsen