Enlightenments from researches and predictions of 2014–2016 super El Nio event

<正>El Nio is a remarkable climate phenomenon with a basinwide warming of sea surface temperatures(SST) in the easterncentral tropical Pacific. El Nio means The Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish, and on the contrary, a basinwide cooling of the tropical Pacific SST is called La Nia that means The Little Girl in Spanish. Always, a large-scale SST change in the tropical     

Numerical simulation for the coupling effect of local atmospheric circulations over the area of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province

Using the model system MM5.V3 and multi-layer grid nesting technique, we have done a multi-scale numerical simulation over the area of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province to analyze the temperature and wind field there and study its local circulations. The results show a coupling effect of Urban Heat Island Circulation (UHIC), Mountain Valley Breeze (MVB) and Sea Land Breeze (SLB) occurs in this area when the synoptic system is weak. The SLB can penetrate deep into the mainland for about 200 km when it is blooming. MVB can extend to south and cover almost the whole plain area in Beijing. Both MVB and SLB are diurnal periodical; meanwhile the phase of MVB drops behind that of SLB for about six hours. As a local circulation, the UHIC weakens the two circulations above, and it also has a diurnal period. As a result, the coupling effect of circulations reveals not only different features in spring-summer period and autumn-winter period in a year but also the difference between early morning to noonday and afternoon to night in a day. We noted the diffusion of contamination over the area around Beijing, and found the steady presence of a transport routine of contamination over North-China throughout the year caused by the Coupling Effect mentioned above. This find is important for studying the environment pollution in this area. Supported by Central Public Welfare Special Fund Program for the Institute and Higher Education (Grant No. IUMKY200701), Public Welfare Special Fund Program (Meteorology) of China Scientific and Technological Ministry (Grant Nos. CYHY20080620, CYHY200706004), Spread New Technology Program of China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. CMATG2007M15) and Urban Meteorology Scientific Research Fund Program of the Institute of Beijing Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. UMRF200702)     

Deepwater Ventilation and Stratification in the Neogene South China Sea

Combined data of physical property, benthic foraminifera, and stable isotopes from ODP Sites 1148, 1146, and 1143 are used to discuss deep water evolution in the South China Sea (SCS) since the Early Miocene. The results indicate that 3 lithostratigraphic units, respectively corresponding to 21-17 Ma, 15-10 Ma, and 10-5 Ma with positive red parameter (a*) marking the red brown sediment color represent 3 periods of deep water ventilation. The first 2 periods show a closer link to contemporary production of the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) and Northern Component Water (NCW), indicating a free connection of deep waters between the SCS and the open ocean before 10 Ma. After 10 Ma, red parameter dropped but stayed higher than the modern value (a*=0), the CaCO3 percentage difference between Site 1148 from a lower deepwater setting and Site 1146 from an upper deepwater setting enlarged significantly, and benthic species which prefer oxygen-rich bottom conditions dramatically decreased. Coupled with a major negative excursion of benthic δ13C at ~10 Ma, these parameters may denote a weakening in the control of the SCS deep water by the open ocean. Probably they mark the birth of a local deep water due to shallow waterways or rise of sill depths during the course of sea basin closing from south to east by the west-moving Philippine Arc after the end of SCS seafloor spreading at 16-15 Ma. However, it took another 5 Ma before the dissolved oxygen approached close to the modern level. Although the oxygen level continued to stabilize, several Pacific Bottom Water (PBW) and Pacific Deep Water (PDW) marker species rapidly increased since ~6 Ma, followed by a dramatic escalation in planktonic fragmentation which indicates high dissolution especially after ~5 Ma. The period of 5-3 Ma saw the strongest stratified deepwater in the then SCS, as indicated by up to 40% CaCO3 difference between Sites 1148 and 1146. Apart from a strengthening PDW as a result of global cooling and ice cap buildup on northern high latitudes, a deepening sea basin due to stronger subduction eastward may also have triggered the influx of more corrosive waters from the deep western Pacific. Since 3 Ma, the evolution of the SCS deep water entered a modern phase, as characterized by relative stable 10% CaCO3 difference between the two sites and increase in infaunal benthic species which prefer a low oxygenated environment. Thesubsequent reduction of PBW and PDW marker species at about 1.2 Ma and 0.9 Ma and another significant negative excursion of benthic δ13C to a Neogene minimum at ~0.9 Ma together convey a clear message that the PBW largely disappeared and the PDW considerably weakened in the Mid-Pleistocene SCS. Therefore, the true modern mode SCS deep water started to form only during the "Mid-Pleistocene climatic transition" probably due to the rise of sill depths under the Bashi Strait.     

震级——频度关系的b值谱及其在地震预报中的应用

本文引进了震级——频度关系的b值谱的概念,给出了计算b值谱的矩方法,对我国华北和西北地区分别计算和分析了以半年为单位的不同时段M_L≥3.0地震的b值谱线。所得结果表明,在研究区内发生6级左右以上大震前半年至一年半之内,b值谱的形态要出现较明显的前兆异常变化,因而可在地震预报中加以应用。     

Flood risk assessment in a coastal lagoon under present and future scenarios: Ria de Aveiro case study

Iranian strong motion records as well as detailed conditions of their instrument sites and the characteristics of their causative seismic sources are compiled and processed. The dataset consists of 2286 three-component records from 461 Iranian earthquakes with at least two high-quality records having moment magnitude from 3.9 to 7.3. These records are about 20% of the Iranian database and are suitable for seismic hazard analysis and engineering applications. Perhaps for the first time in the literature, the distance to the surface projection of the fault is reported for a great number of records corresponding to earthquakes with M > 6.0. The raw accelerations are processed using the wavelet de-noising method. Having corrected and filtered these raw data, the pseudospectral accelerations are calculated for each of the three components of time series, separately. In addition to the ground motion parameters, a large and comprehensive list of metadata characterizing the recording conditions of each record is also developed. Moreover, careful revision of the characteristics of the earthquakes such as location, magnitude, style of faulting and fault rupture plane geometry, if available, is carried out using the best available information in a scientifically sound manner. Finally, we also focus on special ground motion records including records with peak ground acceleration (PGA) >300 cm/s² and distances less than 30 km. These are “exceptional” records in the Iranian dataset and include less than 2% of the selected dataset.     

Upscaling permeability for three-dimensional fractured porous rocks with the multiple boundary method

Upscaling permeability of grid blocks is crucial for groundwater models. A novel upscaling method for three-dimensional fractured porous rocks is presented. The objective of the study was to compare this method with the commonly used Oda upscaling method and the volume averaging method. First, the multiple boundary method and its computational framework were defined for three-dimensional stochastic fracture networks. Then, the different upscaling methods were compared for a set of rotated fractures, for tortuous fractures, and for two discrete fracture networks. The results computed by the multiple boundary method are comparable with those of the other two methods and fit best the analytical solution for a set of rotated fractures. The errors in flow rate of the equivalent fracture model decrease when using the multiple boundary method. Furthermore, the errors of the equivalent fracture models increase from well-connected fracture networks to poorly connected ones. Finally, the diagonal components of the equivalent permeability tensors tend to follow a normal or log-normal distribution for the well-connected fracture network model with infinite fracture size. By contrast, they exhibit a power-law distribution for the poorly connected fracture network with multiple scale fractures. The study demonstrates the accuracy and the flexibility of the multiple boundary upscaling concept. This makes it attractive for being incorporated into any existing flow-based upscaling procedures, which helps in reducing the uncertainty of groundwater models.     

The bubbles or the boiling pot? An ecosystemic approach to culture,environment and quality of life

For the diagnosis and prognosis of the problems of quality of life, a multidisciplinary ecosystemic approach encompasses four dimensions of being-in-the-world, as donors and recipients: intimate, interactive, social and biophysical. Social, cultural and environmental vulnerabilities are understood and dealt with, in different circumstances of space and time, as the conjugated effect of all dimensions of being-in-the-world, as they induce the events (deficits and assets), cope with consequences (desired or undesired) and contribute for change. Instead of fragmented and reduced representations of reality, diagnosis and prognosis of cultural, educational, environmental and health problems considers the connections (assets) and ruptures (deficits) between the different dimensions, providing a planning model to develop and evaluate research, teaching programmes, public policies and field projects. The methodology is participatory, experiential and reflexive; heuristic-hermeneutic processes unveil cultural and epistemic paradigms that orient subject-object relationships; giving people the opportunity to reflect on their own realities, engage in new experiences and find new ways to live better in a better world. The proposal is a creative model for thought and practice, providing many opportunities for discussion, debate and development of holistic projects integrating different scientific domains (social sciences, psychology, education, philosophy, etc.). Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

HP–UHP metamorphism as an indicator of slab dip variations in the Alpine arc

HP/UHP and LT metamorphic units that commonly occur in the inner parts of mountain belts result from the subduction of continental and oceanic material, most often exhumed prior to continental collision. The prograde pressure–temperature history of HP–UHP rocks strongly depends on the convergence rate and on the subduction zone geometry. The maximum pressure recorded provides a proxy for the depth of shearing off and stacking of HP metamorphic nappes. A 2-D thermal model of continental subduction at lithospheric scale is used to compute the length and pressure peak of detached HP metamorphic units as a function of the slab dip angle and the convergence rate. Model results are applied to the metamorphic nappe pile of the inner Alps. A mean convergence rate of 1 cm/year during the subduction of the Briançonnais terrane is indicated by the paleogeographic reconstructions between 46 and 38 Ma. On this basis, the available petrological data and lengths of metamorphic units are used to compute the variations of the slab dip angle. The slab dip angle is shown to increase, from the northeast to the southwest, along the Alpine arc with estimated values of 20° for Suretta, 30–45° for Monte Rosa and Gran Paradiso, and 60° for Dora Maira. From Eocene to Oligocene times, the increase in slab dip angle is controlled by changes of buoyancy, due to the spatial configuration of the Valaisan trough and the incoming of crustal material within the subduction zone.     

Ensemble filter methods with perturbed observations applied to nonlinear problems

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been shown repeatedly to be an effective method for data assimilation in large-scale problems, including those in petroleum engineering. Data assimilation for multiphase flow in porous media is particularly difficult, however, because the relationships between model variables (e.g., permeability and porosity) and observations (e.g., water cut and gas–oil ratio) are highly nonlinear. Because of the linear approximation in the update step and the use of a limited number of realizations in an ensemble, the EnKF has a tendency to systematically underestimate the variance of the model variables. Various approaches have been suggested to reduce the magnitude of this problem, including the application of ensemble filter methods that do not require perturbations to the observed data. On the other hand, iterative least-squares data assimilation methods with perturbations of the observations have been shown to be fairly robust to nonlinearity in the data relationship. In this paper, we present EnKF with perturbed observations as a square root filter in an enlarged state space. By imposing second-order-exact sampling of the observation errors and independence constraints to eliminate the cross-covariance with predicted observation perturbations, we show that it is possible in linear problems to obtain results from EnKF with observation perturbations that are equivalent to ensemble square-root filter results. Results from a standard EnKF, EnKF with second-order-exact sampling of measurement errors that satisfy independence constraints (EnKF (SIC)), and an ensemble square-root filter (ETKF) are compared on various test problems with varying degrees of nonlinearity and dimensions. The first test problem is a simple one-variable quadratic model in which the nonlinearity of the observation operator is varied over a wide range by adjusting the magnitude of the coefficient of the quadratic term. The second problem has increased observation and model dimensions to test the EnKF (SIC) algorithm. The third test problem is a two-dimensional, two-phase reservoir flow problem in which permeability and porosity of every grid cell (5,000 model parameters) are unknown. The EnKF (SIC) and the mean-preserving ETKF (SRF) give similar results when applied to linear problems, and both are better than the standard EnKF. Although the ensemble methods are expected to handle the forecast step well in nonlinear problems, the estimates of the mean and the variance from the analysis step for all variants of ensemble filters are also surprisingly good, with little difference between ensemble methods when applied to nonlinear problems.     

Precise ionosphere-free single-frequency GNSS positioning

Ionospheric delays can be efficiently eliminated from single-frequency data using a combination of carrier phases and code ranges. Unfortunately, GPS and GLONASS ranges are relatively noisy which can limit the use of the positioning method. Nevertheless, position standard deviations are in the range of 6–8 cm (horizontal) and 7–9 cm (3d) obtained from diurnal data batches from selected IGS reference stations can be further reduced to 2–3 cm (3d) for weekly smoothed averages. GPS data sets collected in Ghana (Africa) reveal a typical level of 10 cm of deviation that must be anticipated under average conditions. Looking at the future of GNSS, the European Galileo system will, in contrast to GPS, provide the broadband signal E5 that is by far less affected by multipath thus providing rather precise range measurements. Simulated processing runs featuring both high ionospheric and tropospheric delay variations show a 3d position precision of 4 cm even for a data batch as short as just 1 h, whereas GPS L1/Galileo E1 performance is close to 13 cm for the same data set.