防雷减灾公众服务满意度测评与服务分析——以大连市1523份调查问卷为例

公众对于预警信号的等级认识度较低,还不能完全通过红色、黄色、橙色预警信息准确获知雷电灾害的严重程度。2016年,国务院提出“放、管、服”机构改革指导意见,大连市防雷减灾中心在新要求、新形势下,深入挖掘多种服务渠道,提升服务水平。目前大众对防雷安全的认知度、防雷服务的满意度如何,以及影响其结果的因素又有哪些,是下一步工作需要了解的重要问题。     

基于GIS城市洪水淹没模拟分析

城市洪水淹没范围动态模拟分析是城市防洪规划与防治决策的一个重要基础工作。本文主要研究洪水从翻堤口出发在地理空间蔓延、扩散、动态行进及确定淹没范围的数字模拟方法。为此,根据数学形态学及测地圆概念,研究设计了洪水扩散范围的“膨胀”模拟算法和淹没范围搜索算法,用于查询淹没通块中从翻堤处到任一点之间的淹没路径和ｔ时刻洪水扩散范围。     

不同登陆地点影响福建的台风灾害时空特征分析

根据福建省灾害性气象年鉴和福建省气候影响评价资料,建立以县域为单元的福建省台风灾害数据库(按登陆地点建立分库),运用Excel软件和Mapinfo技术,重建了1980～2005年不同登陆地点影响福建省的台风灾害时空格局.研究表明:不同登陆地点影响福建省的台风灾害年际变化总体都呈波动上升趋势,年内明显集中在7～9月份、群发性强;空间上分布差异较大,登陆福建沿海的台风灾害Tzc高值中心集中分布在闽中北沿海,登陆广东影响福建的台风灾害Tzc高值中心集中分布在闽南沿海和闽西的龙岩、漳平和永定,登陆台湾影响福建的台风灾害Tzc高值中心主要分布在厦门市和闽中北沿海地区,登陆浙江影响福建的台风灾害Tzc高值中心主要分布在闽东北沿海和闽西北局部.     

Oil-generation kinetics for organic facies with Type-II and -IIS kerogen in the Menilite Shales of the Polish Carpathians

The Menilite Shales (Oligocene) of the Polish Carpathians are the source of low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt and some high-sulfur oils in the Carpathian Foredeep. These oil occurrences indicate that the high-sulfur oils in the Foredeep were generated and expelled before major thrusting and the low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt were generated and expelled during or after major thrusting. Two distinct organic facies have been observed in the Menilite Shales. One organic facies has a high clastic sediment input and contains Type-II kerogen. The other organic facies has a lower clastic sediment input and contains Type-IIS kerogen. Representative samples of both organic facies were used to determine kinetic parameters for immiscible oil generation by isothermal hydrous pyrolysis and S₂ generation by non-isothermal open-system pyrolysis. The derived kinetic parameters showed that timing of S₂ generation was not as different between the Type-IIS and -II kerogen based on open-system pyrolysis as compared with immiscible oil generation based on hydrous pyrolysis. Applying these kinetic parameters to a burial history in the Skole unit showed that some expelled oil would have been generated from the organic facies with Type-IIS kerogen before major thrusting with the hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters but not with the open-system pyrolysis kinetic parameters. The inability of open-system pyrolysis to determine earlier petroleum generation from Type-IIS kerogen is attributed to the large polar-rich bitumen component in S₂ generation, rapid loss of sulfur free-radical initiators in the open system, and diminished radical selectivity and rate constant differences at higher temperatures. Hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters are determined in the presence of water at lower temperatures in a closed system, which allows differentiation of bitumen and oil generation, interaction of free-radical initiators, greater radical selectivity, and more distinguishable rate constants as would occur during natural maturation. Kinetic parameters derived from hydrous pyrolysis show good correlations with one another (compensation effect) and kerogen organic-sulfur contents. These correlations allow for indirect determination of hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters on the basis of the organic-sulfur mole fraction of an immature Type-II or -IIS kerogen.     

Cs and Cl NMR spectroscopy and molecular dynamics modeling of Cs and Cl complexation with natural organic matter

Interaction of dissolved aqueous species with natural organic matter (NOM) is thought to be important in sequestering some species and enhancing the transport of others, but little is known about these interactions on a molecular scale. This paper describes a combined experimental ¹³³Cs and ³⁵Cl nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and computational molecular dynamics (MD) modeling study of the interaction of Cs⁺ and Cl⁻ with Suwannee River NOM. The results provide a detailed picture of the molecular-scale structure and dynamics of these interactions. Individual NOM molecules are typically hundreds to thousands of Daltons in weight, and on the molecular scale their interaction with small dissolved species can be investigated in ways similar to those used to study the interaction of dissolved aqueous species with mineral surfaces. As for such surface interactions, understanding both the structural environments and the dynamics over a wide range of frequencies is essential. The NMR results show that Cs⁺ is associated with NOM at pH values from 3.4 ± 0.5 (unbuffered Suwannee River NOM solution) to 9.0 ± 0.5. The extent of interaction increases with decreasing CsCl concentration at constant pH. It also decreases with increasing pH at constant CsCl concentration due to pH-dependent negative structural charge development on the NOM caused by progressive deprotonation of carboxylic and phenolic groups. The presence of NOM has little effect on the ¹³³Cs chemical shifts, demonstrating that its local coordination environment does not change significantly due to interaction with the NOM. Narrow, solution-like line widths indicate rapid exchange of Cs⁺ between the NOM and bulk solution at frequencies of >10² Hz. The MD simulations support these results and show that Cs⁺ is associated with the NOM principally as outer sphere complexes and that this interaction does not reduce the Cs⁺ diffusion coefficient sufficiently to cause NMR line broadening. The ³⁵Cl NMR data and the MD results are consistent in demonstrating that there is no significant complexation between Cl⁻ and NOM in the pH range investigated, consistent with negative structural charge on the NOM.     

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.     

层序的测井、地震响应特征研究

在层序地层学研究中,关键是层序划分和对比。而层序划分、对比的关键是层序识别。层序的识别包括层序界面(层序的底界面、初始海泛面和最大海泛面)的识别和构成层序的体系域识别。这里,在众多前人研究成果的基础上,详细研究了层序的测井、地震响应特征,即层序界面和体系域在测井曲线上和地震剖面上的特征。其中,层序底界面在测井上表现为突变的钟型、箱型或侧积式曲线的底界;在地震剖面上表现为剥蚀、顶超、上超、下超;而体系域在测井曲线上的响应为:低水位体系域的海底扇以漏斗形中、高幅的前积式,或钟型中、低幅的后积式模式为特征,陆坡扇成钟型、正向齿形,自下而上幅度由中高幅→低幅,即具后积式测井模式,低水位楔的测井曲线表现为旋回性进积模式特征,其特征表现为锯齿状箱型。海侵体系域的测井曲线呈现向上变细、变深序列,并表现为钟型、正向齿形或齿化状,幅度由高幅变化为低幅,包络线具后积式特征。高水位体系域相应的测井曲线呈现中幅箱形或桶形,不同体系域在地震剖面上的响应特征明显不同。     

韧性剪切变形对岩石地球化学行为的制约——以北阿尔金巴什考供韧性剪切带为例

韧性剪切变形对岩石地球化学行为的制约一直是地质学家们探讨的课题。本文以构成北阿尔金红柳沟——拉配泉俯冲碰撞杂岩带与北阿尔金地块边界的巴什考供斜向逆冲型韧性剪切带为例，通过对韧性剪切带内花岗岩变形前后不同变形强度构造岩的地球化学组成进行对比，确定等比线斜率，探讨韧性变形对岩石体积和成分变异的影响。计算结果表明，在糜棱岩化过程中，糜棱岩化花岗岩体积亏损21％，花岗质糜棱岩体积亏损31％。质量平衡计算结果和等比线图表明，韧；陛剪切作用导致SiO2，流失量最大，A12O3、K2O及Ba、Rb、Sr等都有不同程度的丢失，显示出较强的活动性，MnO、P2O5、Sc位于等比线上或附近，表现出相对的稳定性。岩石中活动组分的变异是流体渗滤作用引起的，不活动组分的变异是体．积亏损造成的。     

虚假回波在强对流天气探测中的应用

根据2003年几次强对流天气的观测资料，对其中三体散射长钉、二次回波旁瓣回波等虚假回波进行了分析。初步得出了上述虚假回波在新一代C波段天气雷达图像上的特征，为强对流天气的雷达探测和识别提供一些依据。