东山湾波浪对悬沙浓度场影响的数值模拟研究

研究了波致底切应力和二维辐射应力对悬沙的作用.首先对东山湾的水动力进行了数值模拟并与实测资料进行了对比检验,然后对东山湾悬浮泥沙进行了考虑波浪和不考虑波浪两种情况下的数值模拟并与实测资料进行了相关对比分析.在模式建立过程中,依据东山湾独特的窄口型半封闭河口海湾的特点,基于ECOMSED模式（2002）建立了东山湾三维水动力模型,并通过第三代海浪模式MASNUM加入了波浪对底切应力及辐射应力的影响,通过ECOMSED中的底边界层模型考虑了波浪增强底摩擦的作用,综合分析了东山湾的水动力及泥沙状况.结果表明在东山湾数值模拟中,该模式能较好地模拟这类海域的水动力及泥沙输运状况.在东山湾模拟计算中,潮流的作用强于波浪的作用,但考虑波浪因素后,泥沙模拟结果更好.在波浪的作用中,底切应力相比于二维辐射应力占有绝对的优势,两者相差2个量级以上,因此可以不考虑二维辐射应力的影响.     

济宁市引黄充填复垦项目对黄河防洪影响评价

根据防洪影响评价的有关规范,分析了济宁市采煤塌陷地引黄充填复垦项目对黄河河势的影响,以及黄河对项目运用的影响,就影响作出防洪综合评价,并提出有关防治措施。     

海洋模式中潮致混合调和分析参数化方案的建立

潮致混合对海洋环流的调整起着重要作用。陆架环流的数值模拟中如果不考虑潮汐作用，往往不能得到与观测相符的垂向温盐结构。本文基于调和分析方法，建立了一套潮致混合参数化方案。该方案通过对垂向混合系数进行调和分析，从而得到随时间变化的潮致混合系数。将该方案用于黄海冷水团数值模拟的结果显示，其能够得到与在数值模式开边界直接加入潮汐强迫相当的冷水团温盐结构。和直接引入潮汐强迫相比，这一潮致混合参数化方案的优势在于，它能够大大节省数值模拟计算机时，因此有望显著提高大规模高分辨率的海洋环流及气候模式的模拟能力和计算效率。     

南海及邻近海域大气-海浪-海洋耦合精细化数值预报系统研制

本文主要介绍了南海及邻近海域大气-海浪-海洋耦合精细化数值预报系统的研制概况。预报区域为99°E~135°E，15°S~45°N，包括渤海、黄海、东海和南海及其周边海域。为了给耦合预报模式提供较准确的预报初始场，在预报开始之前，分别进行了海浪模式和海洋模式的前24小时同化后报模拟。海浪模式和海洋模式都采用了集合调整Kalman滤波同化方法，海浪模式同化了Jason-2有效波高数据；海洋模式同化了SST数据、MADT数据和ARGO剖面数据。为了改进海洋温度和盐度的模拟，我们在海洋模式的垂向混合方案中引入波致混合和内波致混合的作用。预报系统的运行主要包括两个阶段，首先海浪模式和海洋模式进行了2014年1月至2015年10月底的同化后报模拟，强迫场源自欧洲气象中心的六小时的再分析数据产品。然后耦合预报系统将同化后报模拟的结果作为初始场进行了14个月的耦合预报。预报产品包括大气产品（气温、风速风向、气压等）、海浪产品（有效波高和波向等）、海流产品（温度、盐度和海流等）。一系列观测资料的检验比较表明该大气-海浪-海洋耦合精细化数值预报系统的预报结果较为可靠，可以为南海及周边海洋资源开发和安全保障提供数据和信息产品服务。     

Forecasts of South China Sea surface temperature anomalies using the Nio indices and dipole mode index as predictors

Based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the monthly NCEP Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) data in the South China Sea (SCS) after removing the climatological mean and trends of SST,over the period of January 1982 to October 2003,the corresponding TCF correlates best with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI),Nio1+2,Nio3.4,Nio3,and Nio4 indices with time lags of 10,3,6,5,and 6 months,respectively.Thus,a statistical hindcasts in the prediction model are based on a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) model using the above indices as predictors spanning from 1993/1994 to 2003/2004 with a 1-12 month lead time after the canonical variants are calculated,using data from the training periods from January 1982 to December1992.The forecast model is successful and steady when the lead times are 1-12 months.The SCS warm event in 1998 was successfully predicted with lead times from 1-12 months irrespective of the strength or time extent.The prediction ability for SSTA is lower during weak ENSO years,in which other local factors should be also considered as local effects play a relatively important role in these years.We designed the two forecast models:one using both DMI and Nio indices and the other using only Nio indices without DMI,and compared the forecast accuracies of the two cases.The spatial distributions of forecast accuracies show different confidence areas.By turning off the DMI,the forecast accuracy is lower in the coastal areas off the Philippines in the SCS,suggesting some teleconnection may occur with the Indian Ocean in this area.The highest forecast accuracies occur when the forecast interval is five months long without using the DMI,while using both of Nio indices and DMI,the highest accuracies occur when the forecast interval time is eight months,suggesting that the Nio indices dominate the interannual variability of SST anomalies in the SCS.Meanwhile the forecast accuracy is evaluated over an independent test period of more than 11 years (1993/94 to October 2004) by comparing the model performance with a simple prediction strategy involving the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies over a 1-12 month lead time (the persisted prediction).Predictions based on the CCA model show a significant improvement over the persisted prediction,especially with an increased lead time (longer than 3 months).The forecast model performs steadily and the forecast accuracy,i.e.,the correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SSTA in the SCS are about 0.5 in most middle and southern SCS areas,when the thresholds are greater than the 95% confidence level.For all 1 to 12 month lead time forecasts,the root mean square errors have a standard deviation of about 0.2.The seasonal differences in the prediction performance for the 1-12 month lead time are also examined.     

青海地区井水温度(地温)的数字化观测及地震前兆监测效能评估

较为系统的分析了青海地区"十五"期间架设的12个数字化水温(地温)井的观测现状,及年、月、日不同层次上的动态特征,对其在相关的地震前兆观测中发挥效能的可能性作了宏观的评估。结果表明,有10个井孔可在地震中期前兆监测中发挥效能,有7个井孔可在地震短期的前兆监测中发挥效能,有7个井孔可在地震短临前兆监测中发挥效能。文中还介绍了主要影响数字化水温(地温)资料的干扰因素。     

南海北部陆架陆坡区海流观测研究

针对2006-2009年期间,南海北部陆架陆坡区3个站ADCP海流连续观测资料,采用功率谱分析、潮流调和分析方法,重点分析了陆架陆坡区100 m,200 m和1 200 m水深海域海流的垂向结构,探讨了环流的季节变化和空间分布特征,特别讨论了南海暖流和北陆坡流的时空变化特征。结果表明,陆架陆坡区潮流类型属于不规则日潮,深水站点中层表现为正规全日潮类型,垂向为"三层结构",甚至更加复杂。O₁,K₁,M₂,S₂等分潮总体上为顺时针旋转,在深水站点,基本表现为西北－东南走向的往复流形态。从能量角度看,表层和底层海流中,潮流所占份额较大,分别占30%~40%和40%~50%,中层较小,约为20%。对东沙群岛西南陆架陆坡区环流,观测计算结果证实了西向强流的存在,且垂向结构具有显著的季节变化,在200 m水深处没有明显的南海暖流,只是10~30 m以上层次存在逆风海流。海南岛以东海域连续15个月表层环流的结果表明,冬季明显受到南海暖流的影响,存在东北向的逆风海流,夏秋季的环流表现为西南向,流速较强,夏季也存在逆风情况,造成上述情形的原因可能是该地南海暖流的流轴具有季节性变化——冬季偏南,夏季偏北。     

青海地区数字化表层水温变化与地震的关系研究

介绍了青海地区表层水温井孔的观测概况,对各井孔产出数据的可靠性和年变规律进行了分析,研究了汶川、大柴旦、玉树地震前后水温（地温）的前兆异常变化特征,得到了一些有意义的结果。     

对吕宋海峡深水瀑布的重新认识

On the basis of the latest version of a U.S. Navy generalized digital environment model(GDEM-V3.0) and World Ocean Atlas(WOA13), the hydraulic theory is revisited and applied to the Luzon Strait, providing a fresh look at the deepwater overflow there. The result reveals that:(1) the persistent density difference between two sides of the Luzon Strait sustains an all year round deepwater overflow from the western Pacific to the South China Sea(SCS);(2) the seasonal variability of the deepwater overflow is influenced not only by changes in the density difference between two sides of the Luzon Strait, but also by changes in its upstream layer thickness;(3) the deepwater overflow in the Luzon Strait shows a weak semiannual variability;(4) the seasonal mean circulation pattern in the SCS deep basin does not synchronously respond to the seasonality of the deepwater overflow in the Luzon Strait.Moreover, the deepwater overflow reaches its seasonal maximum in December(based on GDEM-V3.0) or in fall(October–December, based on the WOA13), accompanied by the lowest temperature of the year on the Pacific side of the Luzon Strait. The seasonal variability of the deepwater overflow is consistent with the existing longest(3.5 a) continuous observation along the major deepwater passage of the Luzon Strait.     

储层地震预测应用条件及其实例分析

地震属性技术已经在油气勘探开发,油气藏预测与描述中得到了广泛的应用,其与地球物理和地质特征之间的关系,也越来越受到人们的重视。但地震属性之间,地震属性与储层参数之间的相互关系仍较模糊,对地震属性的使用缺乏系统的研究和分析,这使得地震属性在应用中存在较大的不确定性。这里通过模型和实例分析,研究了储层地质特征,地质与地球物理参数的相关性,地震属性的有效性以及储层预测的基础地质条件,对油气勘探开发具有一定的实际意义和指导作用。