Users’ perception analysis for sustainable beach management in Italy

It is generally accepted that end-users’ perception is likely to play a pivotal role for planning and policy consideration. Beach user analysis is thus an important component defining beach management policies. In the framework of a wider project on beaches management, an investigation on residents and tourists was conducted. A survey conducted through questionnaires and interviews was carried out in six coastal municipalities. Results allowed obtaining a clear picture about user profile, perception of the beaches, awareness and attitude about themes related to beach management (i.e. Blue Flag award and beach nourishment practices). Their integration with the “expert knowledge” based analysis allowed to support the definition of beach management interventions.     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).     

Optical Counterparts of Undetermined Type <Emphasis Type="Italic">γ</Emphasis>-Ray Active Galactic Nuclei with Blazar-Like Spectral Energy Distributions

During its first four years of scientific observations, the Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT) detected 3033 γ-ray sources above a 4 σ significance level. Although most of the extra-galactic sources are active galactic nuclei (AGN) of the blazar class, other families of AGNs are observed too, while a still high fraction of detections (～30%) remains with uncertain association or classification. According to the currently accepted interpretation, the AGN γ-ray emission arises from inverse Compton (IC) scattering of low energy photons by relativistic particles confined in a jet, which, in the case of blazars, is oriented very close to our line-of-sight. Taking advantage of data from radio and X-ray wavelengths, which we expect to be produced together with γ-rays, providing a much better source localization potential, we focused our attention on a sample of γ-ray Blazar Candidates of Undetermined type (BCUs), starting a campaign of optical spectroscopic observations. The main aims of our investigation include a census of the AGN families that contribute to γ-ray emission and a study of their redshift distribution, with the subsequent implications on the intrinsic source power. We furthermore analyze which γ-ray properties can better constrain the nature of the source, thus helping in the study of objects not yet associated with a reliable low frequency counterpart. Here we report on the instruments and techniques used to identify the optical counterparts of γ-ray sources, we give an overview on the status of our work, and we discuss the implications of a large scale study of γ-ray emitting AGNs.     

Topological changes of the photospheric magnetic field inside active regions: A prelude to flares?

The detection of magnetic field variations as a signature of flaring activity is one of the main goals in solar physics. Past efforts gave apparently no unambiguous observations of systematic changes. In the present study, we discuss recent results from observations that scaling laws of turbulent current helicity inside a given flaring active region change in response to large flares in that active region. Such changes can be related to the evolution of current structures by a simple geometrical argument, which has been tested using high Reynolds number direct numerical simulations of the MHD equations. Interpretation of the observed data within this picture indicates that the change in scaling behavior of the current helicity seems to be associated with a topological reorganization of the footpoint of the magnetic field loops, namely with the dissipation of small scales structures in turbulent media.     

Global sensitivity analysis through polynomial chaos expansion of a basin-scale geochemical compaction model

We present a model-driven uncertainty quantification methodology based on sparse grid sampling techniques in the context of a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (GPCE) approximation of a basin-scale geochemical evolution scenario. The approach is illustrated through a one-dimensional example involving the process of quartz cementation in sandstones and the resulting effects on the dynamics of the vertical distribution of porosity, pressure, and temperature. The proposed theoretical framework and computational tools allow performing an efficient and accurate global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the system states (i.e., porosity, temperature, pressure, and fluxes) in the presence of uncertain key mechanical and geochemical model parameters as well as boundary conditions. GSA is grounded on the use of the variance-based Sobol indices. These allow discriminating the relative weights of uncertain quantities on the global model variance and can be computed through the GPCE of the model response. Evaluation of the GPCE of the model response is performed through the implementation of a sparse grid approximation technique in the space of the selected uncertain quantities. GPCE is then be employed as a surrogate model of the system states to quantify uncertainty propagation through the model in terms of the probability distribution (and its statistical moments) of target system states.     

Beyond REDD+ readiness: land-use governance to reduce deforestation in Peru

Peru contains the fourth largest area of tropical forest in the world, yet faces a worsening net deforestation rate. In 2008, to address this threat, the national government announced its ambition to reduce deforestation to zero by 2021. Via literature review and key informant interviews, this study assess two years of REDD+ readiness preparations according to six readiness functions. A mixed pattern of outcomes emerge. Although significant advances were made by various local-level initiatives, national-level efforts continue to struggle. Three crucial challenges persist: (1) greater involvement and coordination of ministries and government agencies associated with REDD+ planning, (2) better understanding of deforestation agents and drivers, and (3) integration of REDD+ policies into national and regional plans, which includes clarification of safeguard procedures and design of incentive mechanisms. Integrated land use planning is presented as a platform to foster dialogue that helps to reconcile divergent stakeholder perspectives, coordinate changes to land use, and resolve overlapping land rights.

Policy relevance

This article presents the outcomes of a multi-dimensional assessment of the REDD+ readiness process in Peru. The six key functions in the analytical framework provide the opportunity to evaluate the process in an integrated and systematic manner and highlights the persistence of complex, transversal governance challenges across diverse economic sectors and government agencies. Research findings also reveal a need for policy change and continued investment to ensure success of the national process in Peru. Strong leadership is needed to generate consensus in cross-sectoral negotiations and to establish coordinated land governance and monitoring mechanisms.     

Projection of low flow conditions in Germany under climate change by combining three RCMs and a regional hydrological model

The present study is aimed to: (a) project future low flow conditions in the five largest river basins in Germany, and (b) to account for the projections uncertainties. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was driven by different regional climate models (REMO, CCLM, and Wettreg) to simulate daily river discharges in each study basin. The 50-year low flow was estimated for the period 1961 to 2000, and its return period was assessed for two scenario periods, 2021–2060 and 2061–2100, using the generalized extreme value distribution. The 50-year low flow is likely to occur more frequently in western, southern, and parts of central Germany after 2061, as suggested by more than or equal to 80% of the model runs. The current low flow period (from August to September) may be extended until late autumn at the end of this century. The return period of 50-year deficit volume shows a similar temporal and spatial pattern of change as for the low flow, indicating slightly less severe conditions with lower confidence. When compared with flood projections for the same area using the same models, the severer low flows projected in this study appear more pronounced, consistent, and have lower uncertainty.     

Analysis of current trends in climate parameters,river discharge and glaciers in the Aksu River basin (Central Asia)

Abstract

Climate variability and change play a crucial role in the vulnerable system of the Aksu River basin located in Kyrgyzstan and northwest China, providing precious water resources for the intense oasis agriculture of the Xinjiang Province (China). Ubiquitous warming and increase in precipitation (in the lower part of the basin) have been detected. Glaciers in the region are retreating. Seasonal trends in river discharge show an increase. A clear link could be demonstrated between daily temperature and lagged river discharge at two headwater stations in summer. However, the correlation breaks over short periods in the end of summer or beginning of autumn at the Xiehela station, when the high (over 95th percentile) flow peaks caused by the glacier lake outburst floods of the Merzbacher Lake occur. This feature is a challenge for the climate impact assessment in the region, as these regular outbursts have to be represented in the projections for the future as well.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Soft proton flux on <Emphasis Type="Italic">ATHENA</Emphasis> focal plane and its impact on the magnetic diverter design

The experience gained with the current generation of X-ray telescopes like Chandra and XMM-Newton has shown that low energy “soft” protons can pose a severe threat to the possibility to exploit scientific data, reducing the available exposure times by up to 50% and introducing a poorly reproducible background component. These soft protons are present in orbits outside the radiation belts and enter the mirrors, being concentrated towards the focal plane instruments, losing energy along their path and finally depositing their remaining energy in the detectors. Their contribution to the residual background will be even higher for ATHENA with respect to previous missions, given the much higher collecting area of the mirrors, even if the instruments will likely suffer no significant radiation damage from this particles flux. As a consequence this soft proton flux shall be damped with the use of a magnetic diverter to avoid excess background loading on the WFI or X-IFU instruments. We present here a first complete evaluation of this background component for the two focal plane instruments of the ATHENA mission in absence of a magnetic diverter, and derive the requirements for such device to reduce the soft protons induced background below the level required to enable the mission science. We estimate the soft proton flux expected in L2 for the interplanetary component and for the component generated locally by acceleration processes in the magnetotail. We produce a proton response matrix for each of the two instruments of ATHENA focal plane, exploiting two independent Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the optics concentration efficiency, and Geant4 simulations to evaluate the energy loss inside the radiation filters and deposited in the detector. With this modular approach we derive the expected fluxes and spectra for the soft protons component of the background. Finally, we calculate the specifics of a magnetic diverter able to reduce such flux below the required level for both X-IFU and WFI.