Treatment of ground-motion predictive relationships for the reference seismic hazard map of Italy

In the framework of the 2004 reference seismic hazard map of Italy the amplitude of the strong-motion (expressed in terms of Peak Horizontal Acceleration with 10% probability of non-exceedence in 50 years, referred to average hard ground conditions) was computed using different predictive relationships. Equations derived in Italy and in Europe from strong-motion data, as well as a set of weak and strong-motion based empirical predictive relationships were employed in a logic tree procedure, in order to capture the epistemic uncertainty affecting ground-motion attenuation. This article describes the adjustments and conversions required to eliminate the incompatibilities amongst the relations. Particularly significant are distance conversions and style-of-faulting adjustments, as well as the problems related to the use of regional relations, such as the selection of a reference depth, the quantification of random variability and the strong-motion prediction. Moreover, a regional attenuation relationship specific for volcanic areas was also employed, allowing a more realistic evaluation of seismic hazard, as confirmed by the attenuation of macroseismic intensities.     

Flare-related changes in the profiles of six photospheric spectral lines

The profiles of six photospheric absorption spectral lines (Fei 5250 Å, Fei 5324 Å, Fei 5576 Å, Cai 5590 Å, Cai 6103 Å and Fei 6165 Å), measured in the kernel of a 2N solar flare and in a quiet-Sun area, were compared. The observations were carried out with an echelle spectrograph of the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory. It was shown that, compared to the quiet-Sun profiles, the flare profiles are shallower in the line core and are less steep in the wings. Therefore, measurements of the longitudinal magnetic field made with a magnetograph system which uses the Cai 6103 Å  spectral line, can be underestimated by 18–25% in areas of bright H ribbons of a moderate solar flare. Modeling of the solar photosphere performed by using a synthesis method showed that, in a solar flare, the enhanced core emission seems to be related to heating of the photosphere by the flare, whereas the decrease of the slope of the wings was presumably caused by the inhomogeneity of the photospheric magnetic field.     

Technology innovation and diffusion in “less than ideal” climate policies: An assessment with the WITCH model

This paper examines the dynamics of innovation in low-carbon energy technologies distinguishing between research and development and technology diffusion as a response to alternative climate policies. We assess the implications of second-best policies that depart from the assumption of immediate and global participation and of full technology availability. The analysis highlights the heterogeneous effects of climate policy on different energy R&D programs and discusses the contribution of important determinants such as carbon price and policy stringency, policy credibility, policy and technological spillovers and absorptive capacity.     

The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison

This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at 450?ppm (roughly 530?C550?ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450?ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios.     

Delayed action and uncertain stabilisation targets. How much will the delay cost?

Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus on the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement mitigation strategies, at least in the short term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that international climate policies will be characterized by a high degree of uncertainty over the stringency of the climate objective, and that some countries might delay their participation to global action. What additional economic costs will this delay in the adoption of mitigation measures imply? What would the optimal short-term strategy be given the uncertainty surrounding the climate policy to come? Is there a hedging strategy that decision makers can adopt to cope with delayed action and uncertain targets? This paper addresses these questions by quantifying the economic implications of delaying mitigation action, and by computing the optimal abatement strategy in the presence of uncertainty about a global stabilisation target (which will be agreed upon in future climate negotiations). Results point to short-term inaction as the key determinant for the economic costs of ambitious climate policies. They also indicate that there is an effective hedging strategy that could minimise the cost of climate policy uncertainty over the global stabilisation target: a short-term moderate climate policy would be a good strategy to reduce the costs of delayed action and to cope with uncertainty about the outcome of future climate negotiations. By contrast, failing to curb emissions in the short term imposes rapidly increasing additional costs of compliance.     

A limit on the number density of bright z≈ 7 galaxies

We present a survey of bright optical dropout sources in two deep, multiwavelength surveys comprising 11 widely separated fields, aimed at constraining the galaxy luminosity function at   z ≈ 7  for sources at  5–10  L * ( z = 6)  . Our combined survey area is 225 arcmin² to a depth of   J _AB= 24.2  (3σ) and 135 arcmin² to   J = 25.3  (4σ). We find that infrared data longwards of 2 μm are essential for classifying optical dropout sources, and in particular for identifying cool Galactic star contaminants. Our limits on the number density of high-redshift sources are consistent with current estimates of the Lyman break galaxy luminosity function at   z = 6  .     

The interanual rainfall variability in Indonesia corresponding to El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole

The Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) event for Indonesian rainfall has been investigated for the period from 1950 to 2011. Inter-annual change of IOD and ENSO indices are used to investigate their relationship with Indonesian rainfall. By using the wavelet transform method, we found a positive significant correlation between IOD and Indonesian rainfall on the time scale of nearly 2.5–4 years.Furthermore, the positive significant correlation between ENSO(sea surface temperature anomaly at Ni?o3.4 area indices) and Indonesian rainfall exists for shorter than 2 years and between 5.5 to 6.5-year time scales.     

Estuarine biofilm patterns: Modern analogues for Precambrian self-organization

This field and laboratory study examines whether regularly patterned biofilms on present-day intertidal flats are equivalent to microbially induced bedforms found in geological records dating back to the onset of life on Earth. Algal mats of filamentous Vaucheria species, functionally similar to microbial biofilms, cover the topographic highs of regularly spaced ridge–runnel bedforms. As regular patterning is typically associated with self-organization processes, indicators of self-organization are tested and found to support this hypothesis. The measurements suggest that biofilm-induced sediment trapping and biostabilization enhance bedform relief, strength and multi-year persistence. This demonstrates the importance of primitive organisms for sedimentary landscape development. Algal-covered ridges consist of wavy-crinkly laminated sedimentary deposits that resemble the layered structure of fossil stromatolites and microbially induced sedimentary structures. In addition to layering, both the morphological pattern and the suggested formation mechanism of the recent bedforms are strikingly similar to microbialite strata found in rock records from the Precambrian onwards. This implies that self-organization was an important morphological process in times when biofilms were the predominant sessile ecosystem. These findings furthermore emphasize that self-organization dynamics, such as critical transitions invoking ecosystem emergence or collapse, might have been captured in fossil microbialites, influencing their laminae. This notion may be important for paleoenvironmental reconstructions based on such strata. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Application of surface-wave tomography to mineral exploration: a case study from Siilinjärvi,Finland

In order to assess the feasibility and validity of surface-wave tomography as a tool for mineral exploration, we present an active seismic three-dimensional case study from the Siilinjärvi mine in Eastern Finland. The aim of the survey is to identify the formation carrying the mineralization in an area south of the main pit, which will be mined in the future. Before acquiring the data, we performed an accurate survey design to maximize data coverage and minimize the time for deployment and recollection of the equipment. We extract path-averaged Rayleigh-wave phase-velocity dispersion curves by means of a two-station method. We invert them using a computationally efficient tomographic code which does not require the computation of phase-velocity maps and inverts directly for one-dimensional S-wave velocity models. The retrieved velocities are in good agreement with the data from a borehole in the vicinity, and the pseudo three–dimensional S-wave velocity volume allows us to identify the geological contact between the formation hosting most of the mineralization and the surrounding rock. We conclude that the proposed method is a valid tool, given the small amount of equipment used and the acceptable amount of time required to process the data.     

Influence of lunar phases,winds and seasonality on the stranding of mesopelagic fish in the Strait of Messina (Central Mediterranean Sea)

The shore stranding of mesopelagic fauna is a recurrent phenomenon in the Strait of Messina (Central Mediterranean Sea). The aim of this paper is to test the influence of lunar phases, winds and seasons upon the frequency of occurrence of strandings of mesopelagic fish. Species abundance in relation to these factors was quantified for the first time. Specimens were collected stranded on the shore along the Sicilian coast of the Strait of Messina between 2008 and 2016. Overall 32 species belonging to seven families (Gonostomatidae, Microstomatidae, Myctophidae, Paralepididae, Phosichthyidae, Sternoptychidae, Stomiidae) were found stranded. Myctophidae was the family including the highest number of species (16), whereas Gonostomatidae was the most abundant in terms of total number of individuals (47.2%), mainly thanks to the species Cyclothone braueri. The moon, which influences the strength of currents (highest during full and new moon phases) and irradiance (higher in some lunar phases, such as the full moon), affected the abundance of stranded mesopelagic fish in the study area. The highest number of stranding events was recorded during the new moon: 34.6% of the total relative abundance of stranded mesopelagic fish. Wind blowing from the sea towards the coastline (southeasterly and easterly winds) created the best conditions for strandings. The highest abundance of stranded specimens was recorded during the winter season.