The effects of spatial autoregressive dependencies on inference in ordinary least squares: a geometric approach

There is a common belief that the presence of residual spatial autocorrelation in ordinary least squares (OLS) regression leads to inflated significance levels in beta coefficients and, in particular, inflated levels relative to the more efficient spatial error model (SEM). However, our simulations show that this is not always the case. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine this question from a geometric viewpoint. The key idea is to characterize the OLS test statistic in terms of angle cosines and examine the geometric implications of this characterization. Our first result is to show that if the explanatory variables in the regression exhibit no spatial autocorrelation, then the distribution of test statistics for individual beta coefficients in OLS is independent of any spatial autocorrelation in the error term. Hence, inferences about betas exhibit all the optimality properties of the classic uncorrelated error case. However, a second more important series of results show that if spatial autocorrelation is present in both the dependent and explanatory variables, then the conventional wisdom is correct. In particular, even when an explanatory variable is statistically independent of the dependent variable, such joint spatial dependencies tend to produce “spurious correlation” that results in over-rejection of the null hypothesis. The underlying geometric nature of this problem is clarified by illustrative examples. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of some possible remedies for this problem.     

Old stellar population synthesis： new age and mass estimates for Mayall Ⅱ = G1

Mayall Ⅱ = G1 is one of the most luminous globular clusters （GCs） in M31. Here, we determine its age and mass by comparing multicolor photometry with theoretical stellar population synthesis models. Based on far- and near-ultraviolet GALEX photometry, broad-band UBVRI, and infrared JHKs 2MASS data, we construct the most extensive spectral energy distribution of G 1 to date, spanning the wavelength range from 1538 to 20 000A. A quantitative comparison with a variety of simple stellar population （SSP） models yields a mean age which is consistent with G1 being among the oldest building blocks of M31 and having formed within ～1.7 Gyr after the Big Bang. Irrespective of the SSP model or stellar initial mass function adopted, the resulting mass estimates （of order 10^7M⊙） indicate that GI is one of the most massive GCs in the Local Group. However, we speculate that the cluster＇s exceptionally high mass suggests that it may not be a genuine GC. Our results also suggest that G1 may contain, on average, （1.65±0.63） × 10^2L⊙ far-ultraviolet-bright, hot, extreme horizontal-branch stars, depending on the adopted SSP model. In addition, we demonstrate that extensive multi-passband photometry coupled with SSP analysis enables one to obtain age estimates for old SSPs that have similar accuracies as those from integrated spectroscopy or resolved stellar photometry, provided that some of the free parameters can be constrained independently.     

Bleaching of the post‐IR IRSL signal: new insights for feldspar luminescence dating

Post‐infrared (pIR) stimulated luminescence dating of sedimentary feldspar largely avoids the effects of anomalous fading that affect conventional infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dating. However, optical resetting of pIR signals is more difficult than resetting the conventional IRSL signal, which may undermine the crucial assumption that pIR signals were effectively bleached upon deposition and burial of sediment grains. In this study, we quantify the bleaching properties of several pIR signals on various samples using laboratory‐simulated bleaching in full sunlight and water‐attenuated sunlight. Our data show that bleaching is most efficient under full spectrum conditions for all pIR signals and that pIR signals measured at elevated temperature are increasingly harder to bleach than IR and pIR signals measured at low temperature (e.g. IR at 50°C). All bleaching curves exhibit a very slow and steady decrease, indicating that a fixed un‐bleachable residual level cannot be reached within the 11 days of solar simulator exposure undertaken here. We show that the magnitude of a laboratory‐determined residual dose depends on the adopted bleaching protocol and cannot be used as a proxy for the dose that remains in the sample at the time of burial (remnant dose). Our data emphasize the importance of finding a balance between sufficient signal stability and a minimized contribution of a remnant dose when using pIR procedures for feldspar luminescence dating.     

Civil engineering meets geology: at the Panama Canal

The Panama Canal ranks high among the world's greatest feats of civil engineering. The sheer scales of its ground excavations, its concrete structures and its economic significance are truly spectacular. It is also remarkable for the geology of the massive landslides that developed within its Culebra Cut.     

An Alternative Classification Scheme for Uncertain Attribute Mapping

The reality of uncertain data cannot be ignored. Anytime that spatial data are used to assist planning, decision making, or policy generation, it is likely that error or uncertainty in the data will propagate through processing protocols and analytic techniques, potentially leading to biased or incorrect decision making. The ability to directly account for uncertainty in spatial analysis efforts is critically important. This article focuses on addressing data uncertainty in one of the most important and widely used exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) techniques—choropleth mapping—and proposes an alternative map classification method for uncertain spatial data. The classification approach maximizes within-class homogeneity under data uncertainty while explicitly integrating spatial characteristics to reduce visual map complexity and to facilitate pattern perception. The method is demonstrated by mapping the 2009 to 2013 American Community Survey estimates of median household income in Salt Lake County, Utah, at the census tract level.     

A spreadsheet-based technique (Lotus 1-2-3) for separating tropical forest storm hydrographs using Hewlett and Hibbert's slope

The inclined line separation technique of Hewlett and Hibbert has been widely adopted to separate delayed flow from the total stream storm runoff. Presented here is the application of the technique to highly responsive storm hydrographs using a personal computer method based on a Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet. Using discharge measurements (in m³ s⁻¹), catchment area (in km²) and time (in Julian days), the separation slope is adjusted on the monitor screen until the precise time at which the end of quickflow as storm runoff gives way to delayed flow may be established. The application of the inclined line method is compared with other separation techniques applied to the same dataset. The annual stream quickflow runoff for the study catchment was calculated by the four different separating lines — (i) best-fit curve, (ii) N-day after peak, (iii) inclined line and (iv) horizontal line — was 250, 312, 368, and 588 mm, amounting to 33, 31, 51 and 78 per cent respectively of the annual total stream runoff. Separation of flow by computer spreadsheet methods may be consistently applied throughout a dataset and therefore have a comparative advantage over more arbitrary techniques. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Critical literacy and the geography classroom: Including gender and feminist perspectives

Abstract: Teaching secondary school geography students about different perspectives on the way knowledge is produced can be challenging. The forms of critical thinking that are prompted by interrogating the ways in which knowledge are produced equips students with intellectual tools for independent learning; an attribute which is a key feature of successful learners. This article provides an overview of the ways in which gender/feminist perspectives have been generated over time; how the teaching of these perspectives has been included in one New Zealand school, as well as suggesting useful resources.