Feed forward Artificial Neural Network model to predict the average summer-monsoon rainfall in India

In the present research, possibility of predicting average summer-monsoon rainfall over India has been analyzed through Artificial Neural Network model. In formulating the ANN — based predictive model, three-layer network has been constructed with sigmoid non-linearity. The monthly summer monsoon rainfall totals, tropical rainfall indices and sea surface temperature anomalies have been considered as predictors while generating the input matrix for the ANN. The data pertaining to the years 1950–1995 have been explored to develop the predictive model. Finally, the prediction performance of neural net has been compared with persistence forecast and Multiple Linear Regression forecast and the supremacy of the ANN has been established over the other processes.     

The Effect of Relative Sunspot Numbers,Solar Flare Numbers and Variable Component of 10.7 cm Solar Flux on The Seasonal Variation of 6300 Å Line Intensity at Calcutta

The paper presents the seasonal variation of 6300 Å line intensity at Calcutta with relative sunspot number, solar flare number and variable component of 10.7 cm solar flux. A study has been made and important results have been obtained which are as follows. (i) Intensity of 6300 Å line shows periodic variation with relative sunspot number, solar flare number and variable component of 10.7 cm solar flux during the period 1984–1986 which is the secondary peak of the descending phase of 21st solar cycle. (ii) 6300 Å line intensity at Cachoeira Paulista station, taken by Sahai et al. (1988), also shows periodic variation with solar parameters during the period 1978–1980 which is the peak phase of the solar cycle. (iii) A possible explanation of such a type of variation is also presented.     

Role of ocean–atmosphere interaction on northward propagation of Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO)

Atmospheric dynamical mechanisms have been prevalently used to explain the characteristics of the summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO), which dictates the wet and dry spells of the monsoon rainfall. Recent studies show that ocean–atmosphere coupling has a vital role in simulating the observed amplitude and relationship between precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) at the intraseasonal scale. However it is not clear whether this role is simply ‘passive’ response to the atmospheric forcing alone, or ‘active’ in modulating the northward propagation of MISO, and also whether the extent to which it modulates is considerably noteworthy. Using coupled NCEP–Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) model and its atmospheric component the Global Forecast System (GFS), we investigate the relative role of the atmospheric dynamics and the ocean–atmosphere coupling in the initiation, maintenance, and northward propagation of MISO. Three numerical simulations are performed including (1) CFSv2 coupled with high frequency interactive SST, the GFS forced with both (2) observed monthly SST (interpolated to daily) and (3) daily SST obtained from the CFSv2 simulations. Both CFSv2 and GFS simulate MISO of slightly higher period (~60 days) than observations (~45 days) and have reasonable seasonal rainfall over India. While MISO simulated by CFSv2 has realistic northward propagation, both the GFS model experiments show standing mode of MISO over India with no northward propagation of convection from the equator. The improvement in northward propagation in CFSv2, therefore, may not be due to improvement of the model physics in the atmospheric component alone. Our analysis indicates that even with the presence of conducive vertical wind shear, the absence of meridional humidity gradient and moistening of the atmosphere column north of convection hinders the northward movement of convection in GFS. This moistening mechanism works only in the presence of an ‘active’ ocean. In CFSv2, the lead-lag relationship between the atmospheric fluxes, SST and convection are maintained, while such lead-lag is unrealistic in the uncoupled simulations. This leads to the conclusion that high frequent and interactive ocean–atmosphere coupling is a necessary and crucial condition for reproducing the realistic northward propagation of MISO in this particular model.     

Tectonic and lithologic control over landslide activity within the Larji–Kullu Tectonic Window in the Higher Himalayas of India

The purpose of this study is to analyze and characterize recent landslide events in the Larji–Kullu Tectonic Window (LKTW), and to establish a relationship between the tectonic and lithologic characters of the terrain and the landslides activity. Using multispectral satellite image analysis with selected field investigation, a landslide occurrence database has been generated for the period between 1984 and 2015. To decipher the accelerated occurrences of landslides in the region, an integrated study is undertaken in the Kullu (also known as Kulu) valley of Beas River basin within the LKTW complex, to analyze the litho-structural and terrain slope interactions using morpho-tectonic parameters such as Topographic/Bedding Plane Interaction Angle (TOBIA) index, terrain surface roughness index and lithological competency analysis. A prominent clustering of landslides is observed in the north of Sainj River, contained within the tectonic window. Major sites of landslides are found to be located in the intensely fractured Manikaran Quartzite occurring within the core of the LKTW. The landslides are mostly associated with southern and southwestern-facing slopes and activations are pronounced in the ‘Orthoclinal’ slope class with gradient of 37°–48°. Thematic maps, e.g., geological, structural, geomorphological, slope and slope-aspect maps are generated and considered together to understand the morpho-tectonic scenario of the tectonic window. Observations from the above-stated thematic maps along with the occurrences of moderate magnitude earthquake epicenters helped to infer neotectonic movements along the Sainj River fault. Tectonic upliftment of the northern bank of the Sainj River along with increased precipitation through decades has resulted in recurrent landslides within the LKTW.     

Qualitative assessment of coal bed methane produced water for developing safe disposal strategies

With growing thrust on extraction of coal bed methane (CBM) gas in many countries, the concurrent generation and discharge of poor quality coal bed water (CBW) is emerging as a major threat to the environment of the nearby soils. Under this context, relevant properties of CBW of a CBM extraction site located in Eastern India were studied and the values were assessed with regard to permissible quality of irrigation water. The study revealed the quality of CBW is largely dominated by salinity, alkalinity, electrical conductivity (EC), pH, sodium absorption ratio (SAR) and residual sodium carbonate. Classification of the CBW samples showed most of the waters (88.88%) fall under High SAR Saline group, while the rest were under High SAR Alkali category. It was also interesting to observe that under comparatively lower EC ranges of CBW, alkalinity was high while the influence of salinity became more visible under higher EC regimes. The key components of CBW influencing the salinity as well as sodicity problems of such water were also determined through Principal Component Analysis.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987113000546

In the eastern part of the Indian shield,late PaleozoiceMesozoic sedimentary rocks of the Talchir Basin lie precisely along a contact of Neoproterozoic age between granulites of the Eastern Ghats Mobile Belt(EGMB)and amphibolite facies rocks of the Rengali Province.At present,the northern part of the basin experiences periodic seismicity by reactivation of faults located both within the basin,and in the Rengali Province to the north.Detailed gravity data collected across the basin show that Bouguer anomalies decrease from the EGMB(wt15 mGal),through the basin(w 10 mGal),into the Rengali Province(w 15 mGal).The data are consistent with the reportedly uncompensated nature of the EGMB,and indicate that the crust below the Rengali Province has a cratonic gravity signature.The contact between the two domains with distinct sub-surface structure,inferred from gravity data,coincides with the North Orissa Boundary Fault(NOBF)that defnes the northern boundary of the Talchir Basin.Post-Gondwana faults are also localized along the northern margin of the basin,and present-day seismic tremors also have epicenters close to the NOBF.This indicates that the NOBF was formed by reactivation of a Neoproterozoic terrane boundary,and continues to be susceptible to seismic activity even at the present-day.     

Logarithmic Entropy-Corrected Holographic Dark Energy in Hořava-Lifshitz cosmology with Granda-Oliveros cut-off

In this work, we studied the Logarithmic Entropy-Corrected Holographic Dark Energy (LECHDE) model in a spatially non-flat universe and in the framework of Ho?ava-Lifshitz cosmology. As infrared cutoff of the system we considered the cut-off recently proposed by Granda and Oliveros which contains two terms, one proportional to H ² and one to $\dot{H}$ . For the two cases containing non-interacting and interacting Dark Energy (DE) and Dark Matter (DM), we obtained the exact differential equation that determines the evolution of the density parameter. Moreover, we derived the expressions of the deceleration parameter q and, using a parametrization of the equation of state (EoS) parameter ω _D of our model as ω _D (z)=ω ₀+ω ₁ z, we derived both the expressions of ω ₀ and ω ₁ for both non-interacting and interacting cases. All derivations made in this work are done in small redshift approximation and for low redshift expansion of the equation of state (EoS) parameter.     

Reconstruction of f(T) gravity from the Holographic Dark Energy

Among different candidates to play the role of Dark Energy (DE), modified gravity has emerged as offering a possible unification of Dark Matter (DM) and DE. The purpose of this work is to develop a reconstruction scheme for the modified gravity with f(T) action using holographic energy density. In the framework of the said modified gravity we have considered the equation of state of the Holographic DE (HDE) density. Subsequently we have developed a reconstruction scheme for modified gravity with f(T) action. Finally we have obtained a modified gravity action consistent with the HDE scenario.