Numerical Modeling of the Ston-Slano (Croatia) Aftershock Sequence

The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M _L 4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock.     

N–PLS regression as empirical downscaling tool in climate change studies

Summary An N–PLS regression technique was tested as an empirical downscaling method. Average monthly near-ground air temperature (t), specific humidity (q), and sea-level pressure (p) fields across Central and Western Europe were used as predictors for average monthly air temperature (T), dew temperature (D), and precipitation amount (P) at 4 locations in Slovenia. The empirical downscaling models (EM) were developed by means of available predictand data from the ARSO archive and predictor data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project, for the period 1951–2002, separately for single months. Using the combination of t and p as predictors, the EM for T explained from 73% to 95% of predictand variability, for D from 74% to 97% of predictand variability, and for P from 31% to 76% of predictand variability. The use of q as an additional predictor did not improve the quality of the EM considerably. Developed EM using p and t as predictors were applied to the results of 5 general circulation models (GCM): CSIRO/Mk2, CCC/CGCM2, UKMO/HadCM3, DOE-NCAR/PCM, and MPI-DMI/ECHAM4-OPYC3. Only the simulations based on SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios were considered in our calculations. Available mean monthly values of predictors for the period 1951–2100 were used. All the projections of GCM results indicate an increase in T and D and decrease in P in the 21^st century at all 4 locations. The expected range of changes in T, D, and P is wide due to the different response of GCM to identical changes in the atmospheric composition, and represents a source of uncertainty in empirical downscaling results. Another important source of uncertainty in empirical downscaling studies, especially when temperature dependent predictors are used, is the problem of extrapolation. By using the proper mathematical approach for EM development we only reduce a part of the uncertainty related to the quality of empirical models that also strongly depend on the quality of input data and predictor selection. The N–PLS regression seems to be a suitable choice of mathematical method, as the feature selection from a large number of predictor time series is not predictand independent. Finally, any climate change and impact studies for the future are affected by many other uncertainties that we have to be fully aware of, while interpreting their results.     

Prediction of the median IDA curve by employing a limited number of ground motion records

A methodology has been proposed which can be used to reduce the number of ground motion records needed for the reliable prediction of the median seismic response of structures by means of incremental dynamic analysis (IDA). This methodology is presently limited to predictions of the median IDA curve only. The reduction in the number of ground motion records needed to predict the median IDA curve is achieved by introducing a precedence list of ground motion records. The determination of such a list is an optimization problem, which is solved in the paper by means of (1) a genetic algorithm and (2) a proposed simple procedure. The seismic response of a simple, computationally non‐demanding structural model has been used as input data for the optimization problem. The presented example is a three‐storey‐reinforced concrete building, subjected to two sets of ground motion records, one a free‐field set and the other a near‐field set. It is shown that the median IDA curves can be predicted with acceptable accuracy by employing only four ground motion records instead of the 24 or 30 records, which are the total number of ground motion records for the free‐field and near‐field sets, respectively. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The chemical compositions and surface structures of two roAp stars with lithium spots (HD 83368 and HD 60435)

The spectra of two roAp stars have been analyzed as part of a project to study lithium in magnetic Ap stars. Variability of the Li I 6708 Å resonance doublet and rare-earth lines was detected, which can be explained using an oblique rotator model with the lithium spots located at the magnetic poles. Synthetic spectra obtained at different rotational phases have yielded the first data on the atmospheric chemical compositions of these spotted stars. Using refined atomic data and the most complete line lists has enabled a detailed study of the spectra near the Li I 6708 Å line and computation of the Li I line profile taking into account the spotted distribution of the lithium over the stellar surfaces. The positions of two lithium spots and lithium abundances for each of the spots have been determined.     

Über die Überlagerungsgeschwindigkeit der Fronten

Summary One can find that over the continent the cold fronts becomes stationary after the sunrise. In the present paper this phenomen is explaned by heating of cold air what causes the increase of the slope of the boundary surface. Because of surface heating of the cold air the horizontal pressure gradient in direction toward the front increases with time, and so increases the transport of the cold air in this direction too. The increasing of the slope of boundary surface that is in connection with the mentioned increased trasport of cold air, causes the convergence of air mass and the ascent of it at the same front (Fig. 2).As the consequence of the heating from the surface and the liberation of latent heat of vaporisation, the volume of cold air increases. In connection with this the divergence of mass occures in the high levels and later one can find at the surface the corresponding fall of pressure. This effects can cause in suitable cases the development of cyclon, similarily as shown on Fig. 4. When the cold air comes from the cold continent over a relatively warm sea surface, the strong heating of cold air occurs and as consequence of this, the cyclogenesis.     

Frequency analysis of geomagnetic beating-type pulsations in thepc3 range

Summary The spectral analysis of samples of beating-type pc3 pulsations, recorded at the Budkov Observatory during the summer months of 1968 and 1969 was carried out in the frequency interval10 mHz100 mHz. The average limits of the pulsation frequency range are roughly20 mHz60 mHz. The centre of the occurrence frequency graphs for both components is at the frequency f_g 41 mHz. The analysis of three separated daily intervals showed a very slight tendency to a systematic decrease in the frequency of the centre from the morning to the afternoon. The study of the sense of rotation of the pulsation disturbance vector in the (X, Y)-plane showed an overall predominancy of L over R-types during daytime, particularly during the morning.     

Electromagnetic induction in a half-space with a cylindrical inhomogeneity

Summary The problem of electromagnetic induction in a half-space with a cylindrical inhomogeneity is treated. Solutions for TE and TM polarization of the exciting electromagnetic field are given, which can be used for computing sounding and profiling curves. The anisotropy of the surface impedance is pointed out, as well as a whole series of other interesting properties of the magnetotelluric field in this model; some of them are also demonstrated on the computed theoretical curves.     

Study of the induction arrow at budkov (Czechoslovakia)

u¶rt;m mam u¶rt;au m ¶rt;a u¶rt;u ma u n aau anu mauaum n amuu ¶rt; a nu¶rt; 1967–1970. aamua ma auum m u¶rt;uu m nu¶rt;a u u am ¶rt;am a¶rt;a m mu ¶rt;¶rt;m -3 amu aua.

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Dedicated to Academician Alois Zátopek on His 65th Birthday