A 2300-year record of environmental change from SW Anatolia, Lake Burdur, Turkey

This work deals with changes recorded by lacustrine sediments from SW Anatolia in Turkey in the context of increasing stress on the Mediterranean environment in relation to human-climate-environmental interactions. Paleolimnological investigations were carried out on Lake Burdur (Lake District geographical subregion of Turkey), which has been subject to rapid changes in its hydrological system that caused a ~10-m water-level drop in the last 30 years. Study of a 5-m-long sediment core, taken from the recently dried out part of the lake, shows significant variation in granulometry, clay mineralogy, nitrogen and organic carbon content and its isotopic composition (?¹³C_org) throughout the sedimentary sequence, which represents the last 2,300 years. Chronology is based on radiocarbon dates obtained from plant fragments. The results provide a record of environmental changes, including biological productivity and erosion intensity, in relation to changes in water level and humidity of the area. The lowest previous water level, which is the same as observed today, occurred at approximately 300 BC, after which time a water-level increase led to a maximum stage between AD 200 and 1200. From AD 1200 to the present, the climate became drier accompanied by an overall lowering of water level, with periods of water-level fluctuations superimposed. The lake never dried out as is observed today at the coring site. The present drop in the lake water level is attributed to human activity rather than to climate change. This record of climate and environmental change in the Lake Burdur area appears to be stratigraphically complete. This study provides rare data for the late Holocene in Anatolia as well as information about rapid climate changes during specific periods. The influence of both the Northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation and Indian monsoon on the east Mediterranean remains unclear. Nevertheless, the North Sea—Caspian atmospheric teleconnection could be an important factor that explains local differences in climatic evolution of Anatolia during the period considered.     

Automated analysis of eclipsing binary light curves – I. EBAS – a new Eclipsing Binary Automated Solver with ebop

We present a new algorithm, Eclipsing Binary Automated Solver (EBAS), to analyse light curves of eclipsing binaries. The algorithm is designed to analyse large numbers of light curves, and is therefore based on the relatively fast ebop code. To facilitate the search for the best solution, EBAS uses two parameter transformations. Instead of the radii of the two stellar components, EBAS uses the sum of radii and their ratio, while the inclination is transformed into the impact parameter. To replace human visual assessment, we introduce a new 'alarm' goodness-of-fit statistic that takes into account correlation between neighbouring residuals. We perform extensive tests and simulations that show that our algorithm converges well, finds a good set of parameters and provides reasonable error estimation.     

Fracture mechanisms of offset rock joints-A laboratory investigation

To study the failure mechanisms of joints and rock bridges in jointed rock masses a series of uniaxial compression tests were performed on specimens made of rock-like material. Specimens of size 63.5cm × 27.9cm × 20.3cm, made of 72% silica sand, 16% cement (Type I) and 12% water by weight were tested. The joint inclination angle was maintained at 45°, while the offset angle i.e. angle between the plane of the joint and the line that connects the two inner tips of the joints, was changed from 0°–120° with an increment of 15°. The tests were performed using a 2000kN universal compression machine and a HP data acquisition system. In each sample, five LVDTs were fixed to measure the displacements along and across both the bridge and the joint segment, and the total displacement along the total length of the sample. The failure mechanism was monitored by visual inspection and a magnifier to detect cracks initiation. For each test the failure surfaces were investigated to determine the characteristics of each surface. In all of the tested samples curvilinear cracks called wing cracks initiated at the joints tips due to high tensile stresses concentration. These wing cracks were directed along the direction of the uniaxial load. The coalescence mechanism of two cracks was investigated. Results showed that open cracks could coalesce by shear failure or tensile failure. The coalescence path was found to be mainly dependent on the inclination of the rock bridge between the cracks.     

A geohazard reconnaissance study based on geoscientific information for development needs of the western region of Istanbul (Turkey)

The role of geoenvironmental information is becoming increasingly important as legislative changes have forced developers and planning authorities to consider more implications and impact on the environment of large-scale development initiatives. Therefore, integration of surface and subsurface geoscientific information for development needs has prime importance and provides a means of identifying potential problems and opportunities at an early stage in any planned development. However, from the experience of recent natural disasters, it is evident that this was not case the taken into consideration in many countries. In addition to thousands of casualties, many urbanized areas, industrial districts and large-scale engineering structures suffered severe damages from the natural hazards due to many reasons including the lack of preliminary engineering geological maps and zoning maps of the settlement areas. Turkey is one of the countries which is exposed to natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides and floods. In particular, the devastating 1999 Kocaeli earthquake, which affected the Marmara Region of Turkey, focused the attention on densely urbanized and industrialized metropolitan areas such as Istanbul. The rapid growth of Istanbul, particularly towards west with minimal geoscientific information resulted in an overwhelming pressure on the natural environment. In addition, a large earthquake, which is expected to occur in the Marmara Sea within the next 30 years, also pose a threat to the city and its surroundings. In this study, on the basis of the geological, geomorphological and geophysical reconnaissance study, an integrated geoscientific data were collected from the western region of Istanbul and evaluated for geohazards. The paper focuses on the geological and geomorphological aspects that control the occurrence of some geohazards such as earthquake-induced liquefaction, landslides and flooding. In this context, the geological map of the region was revised and Quaternary deposits were classified into 11 units, in detail. Liquefaction-prone areas were evaluated by using geomorphological criteria based on field investigation, by the examination of the available records from 88 boreholes drilled on recent deposits and by the data from resistivity profiles. The landslides within the region were classified according to their type, relative depth and activity. In addition, fluvial and marine flood-prone areas were also delimited within the region. Finally, a series of maps such as landslide inventory maps, and maps showing liquefaction- and flood-prone areas were produced with the aid of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to assist in designing further detailed site investigations and to reduce costs by ensuring a more focused approach to strategic planning and site selection.     

A New Computer Program for Pile Capacity Prediction using CPT Data

An interactive computer program “GLAMCPT” is developed for application in soil profiling and prediction of pile load capacity using cone penetration test (CPT) and laboratory soil test results. GLAMCPT calculates pile capacity according to 10 selected methods from European design codes, refereed international publications and recommendations of professional institutions. To demonstrate the capabilities of the program, a database of comprehensive ground investigation and full-scale pile tests in sand, at a Belgian site, is analysed using GLAMCPT. The database comprises 11 static tests and 12 dynamic tests on piles of different construction techniques, including driven pre-cast concrete piles and screwed cast in-situ piles, installed using 5 different procedures. Prior to pile installation, CPTs were carried out at each proposed pile location. Comparison of GLAMCPT predictions with the observed pile capacities reveals that the most accurate of the existing methods yields an average, μ, of predicted to observed pile head capacity [P_uh(p)/P_uh(m)] equal to 0.94. The most consistent method produces a coeffcient of variation (COV) of [P_uh(p)/P_uh(m)] equal to 0.1 and ranking index (RI) of 0.08. Parametric studies have been carried out using GLAMCPT to formulate an improved predictive method, which yielded: μ = 0.99, COV = 0.07 and RI = 0.04.     

Seasonal changes in pasture biomass, production and offtake under the transhumance system in northern Pakistan

An understanding of seasonal changes in pasture biomass, production and offtake of different range types is fundamentally important for the efficient management of livestock grazing. However, few studies have quantified these changes for transhumance systems, despite the fact that transhumance is still the main form of livestock management in several regions of the world and is often critical for the livelihoods of the people. One such area is the Northern Areas of Pakistan, where six villages and their pastures were selected for study. Pastures were categorized within foothill, dry temperate and alpine range types, and seasonal biomass, production and offtake of the vegetation was estimated by clipping paired caged and uncaged quadrats. The alpine range type had by far the highest biomass and offtake; the foothill and dry temperate range types were much more sparsely vegetated. Although alpine pastures were heavily used, particularly in spring, there was no evidence for consistent over-utilization of pasture resources. Within the dry temperate range type, production was highest during spring but significantly under-used. This indicates a potential for increased use of dry temperate pastures during spring, an important period both for early recovery of livestock body condition after winter and to reduce the heavy pressure on the alpine pastures at this time.     

Evaluation of the twenty-first century RCM simulations driven by multiple GCMs over the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea region

In this study, human-induced climate change over the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea region has been analyzed for the twenty-first century by performing regional climate model simulations forced with large-scale fields from three different global circulation models (GCMs). Climate projections have been produced with Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2, A1FI and B1 scenarios, which provide greater diversity in climate information for future period. The gradual increases for temperature are widely apparent during the twenty-first century for each scenario simulation, but ECHAM5-driven simulation generally has a weaker signal for all seasons compared to CCSM3 simulations except for the Fertile Crescent. The contrast in future temperature change between the winter and summer seasons is very strong for CCSM3-A2-driven and HadCM3-A2-driven simulations over Carpathians and Balkans, 4–5 °C. In addition, winter runoff over mountainous region of Turkey, which feeds many river systems including the Euphrates and Tigris, increases in second half of the century since the snowmelt process accelerates where the elevation is higher than 1,500 m. Moreover, analysis of daily temperature outputs reveals that the gradual decrease in daily minimum temperature variability for January during the twenty-first century is apparent over Carpathians and Balkans. Analysis of daily precipitation extremes shows that positive trend is clear during the last two decades of the twenty-first century over Carpathians for both CCSM3-driven and ECHAM5-driven simulations. Multiple-GCM driven regional climate simulations contribute to the quantification of the range of climate change over a region by performing detailed comparisons between the simulations.     

Evaluation of diaphragm conditions in AAC floor structures with RC beams

Diaphragm action in floor structures is an important aspect that affects both local behaviors of individual members and consequently, the global response of a structure. The diaphragm action of a built structure, therefore needs to be compatible with the assumed diaphragm condition in the design phase to prevent unpredicted overloading of load bearing members in a seismic action. Autoclaved aerated concrete (AAC) is a cost-effective, lightweight and energy efficient material, and its usage as a construction material has rapidly increased in recent decades. However, there is a limited experience regarding the in-plane behavior of the floor structures made of AAC panels in terms of diaphragm action. In this paper, the in-plane response of AAC floors is experimentally investigated and the floor performance of a typical building is analytically investigated according to ASCE 7-16 (ASCE/SEI in Minimum design loads for buildings and other structures, The American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, 2016). Full-scale experiments carried out through loading AAC floors in lateral directions to the panels, either parallel or perpendicular, provided important information about the damage progress and overall performance of such floors. A number of finite element modeling techniques that are generally used for modeling of AAC floors were examined and then validated through comparisons with test results. Finally, the diaphragm condition of a three-story building made of AAC walls and floor panels was assessed. The results indicated that the AAC floors in the examined building can be idealized as rigid diaphragms according to ASCE 7-16.     

Analysis of early late phase in single-and dual-frequency GPS receivers for multipath detection

Much of the research into multipath detection and mitigation has not considered the carrier phase delay between the line of sight (LOS) and reflected signals. A new variable referred to as early late phase (ELP) has recently been proposed to exploit this phase difference. It has been found that in a receiver tracking the L1 GPS signal, the probability of detecting multipath is lower when the carrier phase difference between the LOS and a reflected signal is an integer multiple of π. Since the pseudorange error caused by the multipath’s presence is the highest in this case, we propose to exploit the coexistence of another GPS civilian signal, the L2C. We present an analysis of ELP for the L1 and L2C signals, and a combination of both, for detecting multipath. The multipath detection performance has been compared using probabilities of false alarm and detection. An ideal algorithm should have lower probability of false alarm and higher probability of detection. However, it has been found that using dual-frequency ELP increases both probabilities. Thus, receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curves, and the area under the ROC curves, have been used for effective comparison. It has been found that the L2C signal individually gives worse performance than L1 because of its weaker signal strength. However, the combination of L1 and L2C gives the best overall performance, and thus it can be claimed that ELP using dual-frequency receivers is a more effective approach for detecting multipath.