River sediments,great floods and centennial‐scale Holocene climate change

A new analysis of all 346 published ¹⁴C dated Holocene alluvial units in Britain offers a unique insight into the regional impacts of global change and shows how surprisingly sensitive British rivers have been to relatively modest but repeated changes in climate. Fourteen major but probably brief periods of flooding are identified bracketed within the periods 400–1070, 1940–3940, 7520–8100 and at ca. 10 420 cal. yr BP. There is a strong correspondence between climatic deteriorations inferred from mire wet shifts and major periods of flooding, especially at ca. 8000 cal. yr BP and since ca. 4000 cal. yr BP. The unusually long and complete British record also demonstrates that alterations in land cover have resulted in a step change in river basin sensitivity to variations in climate. This has very important implications for assessing and mitigating the impact of increasing severe flooding. In small and medium‐sized river basins land use is likely to play a key role in either moderating or amplifying the climatic signal. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Barringer Award Address Presented 1996 July 25, Berlin,Germany: Impact experiments related to the evolution of planetary regoliths

Abstract— Impact-induced comminution of planetary surfaces is pervasive throughout the solar system and occurs on submillimeter to global scales, resulting in comminution products that range from fine-grained surface soils, to massive, polymict ejecta deposits, to collisionally fragmented objects. Within this wide range of comminution products, we define regoliths in a narrow sense as materials that were processed by repetitive impacts to dimensional scales comparable to or smaller than that of component minerals of the progenitor rock(s). In this paper, we summarize a wide variety of impact experiments and other observations that were primarily intended to understand the evolution of regoliths on lunar basalt flows, and we discuss some of their implications for asteroidal surfaces. Cratering experiments in both rock and noncohesive materials, combined with photogeologic observations of the lunar surface, demonstrate that craters <500 m in diameter contribute most to the excavation of local bedrock for subsequent processing by micrometeorites. The overall excavation rate and, thus, growth rate of the debris layer decreases with time, because the increasingly thicker fragmental layer will prevent progressively larger projectiles from reaching bedrock. Typical growth rates for a 5 m thick lunar soil layer are initially (～≥3 Ga ago) a few mm/Ma and slowed to <1 mm/Ma at present. The coarse-grained crater ejecta are efficiently comminuted by collisional fragmentation processes, and the mean residence time of a 1 kg rock is typically 10 Ma. The actual comminution of either lithic or monomineralic detritus is highly mineral specific, with feldspar and mesostasis comminuting preferentially over pyroxene and olivine, thus resulting in mechanically fractionated fines, especially at grain sizes <20 μm. Such fractionated fines also participate preferentially in the shock melting of lunar soils, thus giving rise to “agglutinate” melts. As a consequence, agglutinate melts are systematically enriched in feldspar components relative to the bulk composition of their respective host soil(s). Compositionally homogeneous, impact derived glass beads in lunar soils seem to result from micrometeorite impacts on rock surfaces, reflecting lithic regolith components and associated mineral mixtures. Cumulatively, experimental and observational evidence from lunar mare soils suggests that regoliths derive substantially from the comminution of local bedrock; the addition of foreign, exotic components is not necessary to explain the modal and chemical compositions of diverse grain size fractions from typical lunar soils. Regoliths on asteroids are qualitatively different from those of the Moon. The modest impact velocities in the asteroid belt, some 5 km s^?1, are barely sufficient to produce impact melts. Also, substantially more crater mass is being displaced on low-gravity asteroids compared to the Moon; collisional processing of surface boulders should therefore be more prominent in producing comminuted asteroid surfaces. These processes combine into asteroidal surface deposits that have suffered modest levels of shock metamorphism compared to the Moon. Impact melting does not seem to be a significant process under these conditions. However, the role of cometary particles encountering asteroid surfaces at presumably higher velocities has not been addressed in the past. Unfortunately, the asteroidal surface processes that seemingly modify the spectral properties of ordinary chondrites to match telescopically obtained spectra of S-type asteroids remain poorly understood at present, despite the extensive experimental and theoretical insights summarized in this report and our fairly mature understanding of lunar surface processes and regolith evolution.     

Desert methane: Implications for life detection on Mars

Methane, a potential biosignature, has recently been detected in the martian atmosphere. This Note focuses on field investigations/operational simulations and laboratory studies which resulted in successful detection of methane within arid terrestrial soils, as distinct from the usual methanogen environment, but in at least partial analogy to martian conditions.     

Multiforced statistical assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced surface air temperature change 1890–1985

Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO₂, or equivalent CO₂ implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO₂ doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO₂ doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Transfer factors of contamination between the German Bight and its tributary waters derived from measured tritium and Cs-137 activity concentrations

Summary Evaluation of the results of radioactivity monitoring in the southern North Sea between 1977 and 1987 has shown that in the water of the German Bight three areas stand out due to their different ratios between salinity and concentration of dissolved Cs-137 and tritium. While salinity steadily increases with greater distance from the coast, the Cs-137 concentration above 34 PSU (Practical Salinity Unit) increases sharply and shows how far water from the western and central North Sea, contaminated by nuclear reprocessing in Sellafield (Irish Sea), reaches into the German Bight. In the 34 to 32.5 PSU range, the influence can be seen of water contaminated by tritium originating in the rivers Rhein, Maas and Schelde, precipitation and the nuclear reprocessing plant at La Hague (Channel). Below 32.5 PSU, the influence of the influx from the rivers Elbe, Weser and Ems becomes apparent. These rivers are less contaminated with tritium.Assuming that Cs-137 and tritium, like the salinity of sea water, behave conservatively and that the decay-time of these two isotopes is long compared with the time-scale of water exchange in the southern North Sea, the concentration values measured are used to calculate the structure of the water masses in the three areas of the German Bight mentioned above using the mixing principle. Evaporation is taken into account. Results show that beyond 34 PSU, about half the sea water originates in the western central North Sea while the other half comes from the Channel. Below 34 PSU, the first mentioned share amounts only to a few per cent. Results also show that fresh water from the Rhein delta and precipitation, increasing with a decrease in salinity from 34 to 32.5 PSU, accounts for a maximum of 5% each. The fresh water influx into the German Bight via the rivers Elbe, Weser and Ems amounts to app. 11% when the PSU value reaches 29. The calculated portions are the mean values for the observation period. The number of measurements available makes it impossible to distinguish more exactly between the temporal and spatial variability of the amounts of the individual components.The quantity of each calculated portion of sea water also represents the transfer factor of concentration between the nuclide concentration in the source (e. g. the Rhein) and the concentration in the German Bight. In addition, these factors are used to calculate the transfer factors of discharge using the annual drainage rates of the sources. Thus a radioactive discharge rate of 10¹⁵ Bq per year into the Rhein would produce a mean activity concentration of 0.34 Bq/l in the German Bight (at a salinity of 33.5 PSU). To verify the calculated transfer factors, tritium concentrations in the German Bight are derived from existing environmental tritium data and the results are compared with the values actually measured.

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Transferkaktoren zwischen der Deutschen Bucht und ihren Zuflüssen abgeleitet aus der Tritium- und Cs-137-Aktivitätskonzentration in den beteiligten Gewässern

Zusammenfassung Eine zusammenhängende Auswertung der Meßergebnisse der Radioaktivitätsüberwachung in der südlichen Nordsee über den Zeitraum 1977 bis 1987 hat gezeigt, daß im Wasser der Deutschen Bucht deutlich drei durch den Salzgehalt des Meerwassers und die Konzentration der gelösten Radionuklide charakterisierte Bereiche zu unterscheiden sind.Während der Salzgehalt mit wachsender Entfernung von der Küste stetig zunimmt, steigt die Cs-137-Konzentration oberhalb 34 PSU (Practical Salinity Unit) sprunghaft an und signalisiert die Grenze, bis zu der das durch die Kernbrennstoff-Wiederaufarbeitung in Sellafield (Irische See) kontaminierte Meerwasser der westlichen und mittleren Nordsee in die Deutsche Bucht vordringt. Im Bereich 34 bis 32,5 PSU ist das von Westen zugeführte, stärker Tritium-kontaminierte Wasser aus Rhein, Maas, Schelde und atmosphärischem Niederschlag zu erkennen, an das sich unterhalb 32,5 PSU der geringer mit Tritum kontaminierte Zufluß aus Elbe, Weser und Ems anschließt.Davon ausgehend, daß sich Cs-137 und Tritium wie der Salzgehalt im Meerwasser konservativ verhalten und daß weiterhin die Halbwertzeit des radioaktiven Zerfalls dieser beiden Nuklide lang ist gegenüber den Wasseraustauschzeiten im betrachteten Meeresgebiet, wurden die in der südlichen Nordsee gemessenen sowie aus der Literatur für den Süßwasserbereich entnommenen Konzentrationswerte dazu genutzt, um rechnerisch mit Hilfe des Mischungsgesetzes den Wassermassenaufbau in den drei genannten Salinitätsbereichen in der Deutschen Bucht quantitativ zu bestimmen. Es zeigte sich, daß oberhalb von 34 PSU das Meerwasser aus etwa gleichen Teilen aus der westlichen/mittleren Nordsee und dem Kanal stammt, während unterhalb dieser Salzgehaltsgrenze nur noch mit wenigen Prozentanteilen Wasser aus der mittleren Nordsee zu finden ist. Ferner ergab sich, daß das aus dem Rheinmündungsbiet bzw, aus dem atmosphärischen Niederschlag stammende Süßwasser — mit sinkendem Salzgehalt steigend — bei 32,5 PSU einen maximalen Anteil von jeweils 5% an Meerwasser hat. Der direkte Süßwasserzufluß aus Elbe, Weser und Ems beträgt in die Deutsche Bucht bei 29 PSU ca. 11%.Die berechneten Anteile sind Mittelwerte über den gesamten Beobachtungszeitraum; die Anzahl der Messungen läßt eine genauere Unterscheidung in zeitliche und räumliche Variabilität der Zusammensetzung nicht zu.Die Größe des jeweils bestimmten Anteils am Meerwasser stellt gleichzeitig den Transferfaktor der Konzentration zwischen der Nuklidkonzentration im Ursprungsgewässer (z. B. dem Rhein) und der sich daraus einstellenden Konzentration in der Deutschen Bucht dar. Ferner wurden die Transferfaktoren der Konzentration in Verbindung mit aus der Literatur entnommenen Größen der jährlichen Abflußmengen der Ursprungsgewässer genutzt, um auch die Transferfaktoren der jährlichen Einbringung zu ermitteln. So ergibt die jährliche Einbringung von 10¹⁵ Bq eines Nuklides z. B. in den Rhein bei 33,5 PSU in der Deutschen Bucht eine mittlere Konzentration von 0,34 Bq/l.Als Anwendungsbeispiel und zur Überprüfung der Richtigkeit der Transferfaktoren wird die Auswertung des Tritiumauslasses bei La Hague auf die Deutsche Bucht berechnet und mit den gemessenen Werten verglichen.

     

Proposed seismic hazard maps of Sumatra and Java islands and microzonation study of Jakarta city,Indonesia

This paper presents the development of spectral hazard maps for Sumatra and Java islands, Indonesia and microzonation study for Jakarta city. The purpose of this study is to propose a revision of the seismic hazard map in Indonesian Seismic Code SNI 03-1726-2002. Some improvements in seismic hazard analysis were implemented in the analysis by considering the recent seismic activities around Java and Sumatra. The seismic hazard analysis was carried out using 3-dimension (3-D) seismic source models (fault source model) using the latest research works regarding the tectonic setting of Sumatra and Java. Two hazard levels were analysed for representing 10% and 2% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years ground motions for Sumatra and Java. Peak ground acceleration contour maps for those two hazard levels and two additional macrozonation maps for 10% PE in 50 years were produced during this research. These two additional maps represent short period (0.2 s) and long-period (1.0 s) spectra values at the bedrock. Microzonation study is performed in order to obtain ground motion parameters such as acceleration, amplification factor and response spectra at the surface of Jakarta. The analyses were carried out using nonlinear approach. The results were used to develop contour of acceleration at the surface of Jakarta. Finally, the design response spectra for structural design purposes are proposed in this study.     

Use of sinkhole and specific capacity distributions to assess vertical gradients in a karst aquifer

The carbonate-rock aquifer in the Great Valley, West Virginia, USA, was evaluated using a database of 687 sinkholes and 350 specific capacity tests to assess structural, lithologic, and topographic influences on the groundwater flow system. The enhanced permeability of the aquifer is characterized in part by the many sinkholes, springs, and solutionally enlarged fractures throughout the valley. Yet, vertical components of subsurface flow in this highly heterogeneous aquifer are currently not well understood. To address this problem, this study examines the apparent relation between geologic features of the aquifer and two spatial indices of enhanced permeability attributed to aquifer karstification: (1) the distribution of sinkholes and (2) the occurrence of wells with relatively high specific capacity. Statistical results indicate that sinkholes (funnel and collapse) occur primarily along cleavage and bedding planes parallel to subparallel to strike where lateral or downward vertical gradients are highest. Conversely, high specific capacity values are common along prominent joints perpendicular or oblique to strike. The similarity of the latter distribution to that of springs suggests these fractures are areas of upward-convergent flow. These differences between sinkhole and high specific capacity distributions suggest vertical flow components are primarily controlled by the orientation of geologic structure and associated subsurface fracturing.