Uncertainty and risk in climate projections for the 21st century: comparing mitigation to non-intervention scenarios

Probabilistic climate projections based on two SRES scenarios, an IMAGE reference scenario and five IMAGE mitigation scenarios (all of them multi-gas scenarios) using the Bern2.5D climate model are calculated. Probability distributions of climate model parameters that are constrained by observations are employed as input for the climate model. The sensitivity of the resulting distributions with respect to prior assumptions on climate sensitivity is then assessed. Due to system inertia, prior assumptions on climate sensitivity play a minor role in the case of temperature projections for the first half of the 21st century, but these assumptions have a considerable influence on the distributions of the projected temperature increase in the year 2100. Upper and lower probabilities for exceeding 2°C by the year 2100 are calculated for the different scenarios. Only the most stringent mitigation measures lead to low probabilities for exceeding the 2°C threshold. This finding is robust with respect to our prior assumptions on climate sensitivity. Further, probability distributions of total present-value damages over the period 2000–2100 for the different scenarios are calculated assuming a wide range of damage cost functions, and the sensitivity of these distributions with respect to the assumed discount rate is investigated. Absolute values of damage costs depend heavily on the chosen damage cost function and discount rate. Nevertheless, some robust conclusions are possible.     

Applicazione della teoria di Chandrasekhar alle misure di polarizzazione atmosferica

Riassunto E'stato calcolato il valore medio dello spessore ottico dell'atmosfera () in funzione degli elementi meteorologici al suolo, riconoscendo che esso può ritenersi praticamente indipendente da questi. Poichè i valori delle intensità delle radiazioni diffuse dall'atmosfera, ricavati dalla teoria delChandrasekhar, sono, per una data altezza del sole e per ogni direzione della visuale, funzioni soltanto di e dell'albedo, si deduce che queste intensità risultano indipendenti dalle condizioni meteorologiche. Il che porta a concludere che: 1^o) o effettivamente le intensità della luce diffusa dalle molecole d'aria non dipendono dai fattori meteorologici; 2^o) oppure la teoria delChandrasekhar, completa per quel che riguarda le diffusioni multiple, non risponde in pieno alle condizioni reali. — Il confronto delle curve teoriche della polarizzazione della luce-diffusa dalla volta celeste con quelle ottenute in base ad osservazioni eseguite all'Osservatorio Vesuviano, non dà un accordo accettabile. Pur non escludendo che il mancato accordo sia da attribuire, almeno in parte, alla diffusione non molecolare, si è portati verso la seconda alternativa.

---

Summary The average optical atmospheric thickness () as a function of the meteorologic ground elements has been calculated, obtaining a result which shows its inependence from those elements. The intensity of the radiations scattered by the atmosphere, as deduced fromChandrasekhar's theory for a given hight of the suns and for every direction, being a function only of and of the albedo, it follows that these intensities are independent from the meteorologic conditions. Then it can be concluded that: 1st) either the intensity of the light scattered by the air molecules does not depend from the meteorologic factors, 2nd) orChandrasekhar's theory, adequate for the computation of the effect of multiple scattering, does not entirely represents the real phenomenon. — Comparing the theoretic patterns for the polarization of sky scattered light with the experimental data obtained in the Vesuvian Observatory, an acceptable agreement has not be found. Although taking into account the scattering of other than molecular origin, the second hypothesis seems more probable.

     

Estimation of debris‐flow magnitude in the Eastern Italian Alps

The estimation of debris‐?ow magnitude is an essential step in the assessment of debris‐?ow hazard. Although different methods have been developed for the assessment of debris‐?ow magnitude, this is still a dif?cult task because of the complexity of ?ow processes and the lack of data to test estimation procedures in many mountainous regions. Data on debris‐?ow magnitude from 127 basins in the Eastern Italian Alps have been collected from scienti?c and technical journals, technical reports, historical documents gathered from local archives, and ?eld surveys. These data were used to develop and test different predictive approaches, encompassing regression equations, geomorphological surveys and probabilistic analysis of time series. Regression techniques were used to correlate debris‐?ow magnitude to morphometric parameters and geological characteristics of the basins. Values of the channel debris yield rate (contribution per unit length of channel), proposed in the literature, were compared with data from the study area for identifying reference values for channel stretches of different morphological characteristics. Although limited to the few basins in which suf?cient data were available, the probabilistic analysis of time series of debris‐?ow magnitude provides indications about the relations between magnitude and frequency of debris ?ows. Some observations about the capability and drawbacks of considered methods are presented and the combined use of different approaches for the estimation of debris‐?ow magnitude is suggested. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the heat pulses generated on a fault plane during coseismic slip: Inferences from the pseudotachylites of the Copanello cliffs (Calabria, Italy)

A pseudotachylite vein network crosscutting late Hercynian foliated tonalites can be observed along the Copanello cliffs (Calabria, Southern Italy). Pseudotachylites formed during the Oligocene–Miocene at intermediate crustal levels (ca. 10 km). They show variable thickness ranging from few mm up to 10 cm, as observed in injection veins branching from the fault plane. Microscopic observations indicate that pseudotachylite matrix mainly consists of plagioclase (An₄₆–An₅₈) and biotite microlites. Rounded clasts of quartz, plagioclase or of plagioclase–quartz lithic fragments are disseminated in the matrix. Intergranular, flow and spherulitic textures are commonly observed. Microstructural features are consistent with rapid crystallisation from melt. EDS analyses of rare and tiny glass veins indicated a trachyandesite or An₅₀ plagioclase melt composition.The conditions for pseudotachylite formation were reproduced by an analytical model taking into account the heat released by friction along a horizontal fault plane during a seismic event. The model is based on a three-stage rupture history that includes nucleation, propagation and stopping. In addition, by means of a numerical approach, the model reproduces cooling that follows the stopping stage.According to previous studies, the thermal perturbation induced by fault displacement is very intense. In fact, temperatures exceeding the tonalite and even An₅₀ plagioclase liquidus (1470 °C) are reproduced by small amount of slip (≤ 6 cm) in suprahydrostatic regime. On the other hand, the thermal perturbation is strongly localised and of short duration. Peak temperatures abruptly decrease at a short distance from the fault plane (typically in few millimetres). In these conditions a thin film of melt can be produced. Therefore, the presence of cm-scale pseudotachylite veins can be only explained assuming an efficient and fast melt migration towards dilatant sites, such as pull-apart structures and injections veins. Results of the model may be useful to predict the thermal disturbance produced by earthquakes of low intensity.     

Temperature and density of the Tyrrhenian lithosphere and slab and new interpretation of gravity field in the Tyrrhenian Basin

The gravity anomaly field of the Tyrrhenian basin and surrounding regions reflects the complex series of geodynamic events active in this area since the Oligocene–Miocene. They can resume in lithospheric thinning and asthenospheric rising beneath the Tyrrhenian Basin, coexisting with the roll-back subduction of the African plate margin westward sinking beneath the Calabrian Arc. The geographic closeness between these processes implies an intense perturbation of the mantle thermal regime and an interference at regional scale between the related gravity effects.A model of the litho-asthenospheric structure of this region is suggested, showing a reasonable agreement with both the evidences in terms of regional gravity anomaly pattern and the results concerning thermal state and petro-physical features of the mantle. The first phase of this study consisted of the computation of the isotherms in the crust–mantle system beneath the Tyrrhenian Basin and, afterwards, of the density distribution within the partially melted upwelling asthenosphere. The second phase consisted of a temperature/density modelling of the slab subducting beneath the Calabrian Arc. Finally, a 2^1 / 2 interpretation of gravity data was carried out by including as constraints the results previously obtained. Thus, the final result depicts a model matching both gravity, thermal and petrographic data. They provide (a) a better definition of the thermal regime of the passive mantle rise beneath the Tyrrhenian basin by means of the estimation of the moderate asthenospheric heating and (b) a model of lithospheric slab subducting with rates that could be smaller than generally suggested in previous works.     

Analysis of the Major Fe Bearing Mineral Phases in Recent Lake Sediments by EXAFS Spectroscopy

Extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy and chemical analyses were combined to determine the Fe bearing minerals in recent lake sediments from Baldeggersee (Switzerland). The upper section of a laminated sediment core, deposited under eutrophic conditions, was compared to the lower part from an oligotrophic period. Qualitative analysis of FeK EXAFS agreed well with chemical data: In the oligotrophic section Fe(II)–O and Fe(III)–O specieswere present, whereas a significant fraction of Fe(II)–S sulfides was strongly indicated in the eutrophic part. A statistical analysis was performed by least square fitting of normalized reference spectra. The set of reference minerals included Fe(III) oxides and Fe(II) sulfides, carbonates and phosphates. In the oligotrophic regime no satisfying fit was obtained using the set of reference spectra, indicating that siderite (FeCO₃) was not present in a significant amount in these carbonate-rich sediments. Simulated EXAFS spectra for a(Ca_x, Fe_1-x)CO₃solid solution allowed reconstructing the specificfeatures of the experimental spectra, suggesting that this phase was the dominant Fe carrier in the oligotrophic section of the core. In the eutrophic part, mackinawite was positively identified and represented the dominant Fe(II) sulfide phase. This finding agreed with chemical extraction, which indicated that18–40 mol% of Fe was contained in the acid volatile iron sulfide fraction. EXAFS spectra of the eutrophic section were best fitted by considering the admixture of mackinawite and the Fe–Ca carbonate phase inferred to be predominant in the oligotrophic regime.     

Heat flow and geodynamics in the Tyrrhenian Sea

The present heat flow in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea appears as a transient thermal wave that has migrated eastward in time. The higher heat flow in the south‐eastern side of the basin confirms the suggestion of an eastward‐migrating rift. Punctuation of the Tyrrhenian backarc extension in lithospheric boudins is accompanied by a concentrated increase in heat flow generated by asthenospheric intrusions and related magmatism progressively moving eastward. The migration of the asthenosphere in the same direction could explain these phenomena.