An event-based stochastic model of phosphorus loading into a lake

In most lakes, phosphorus (P) is the nutrient controlling the trophic state. Thus, for effective control of eutrophication, the uncertainty in P-loading should be encoded as a probability density function (pdf). Specifically, the pdf of P-loading Y from non-point agricultural sources is sought by means of an event-based stochastic model.P-loading events are triggered by precipitation events (X₁, X₂, T), in which X₁ is the rainfall amount, X₂ the duration, and T the interarrival time between events. (X₁, X₂) are dependent random variables, while T is assumed to be exponentially distributed. The precipitation event causes runoff, which carries dissolved P into the lake with a concentration C₁ and sediment yield, Z, which carries fixed or sorbed P into the lake in a fraction C₂ of Z. Seasonal loading of P is calculated by adding random numbers of random variables. The model accounts separately for dissolved P and sorbed P. Explicit expressions are given for the mean and variance of each type of P-loadings. The case study of a sub-watershed of Lake Balaton, Hungary, is used to illustrate the methodology. Precipitation data, empirical rainfall-runoff-sediment yield relationships and a small number of observations of events are used to calibrate the model and estimate the means and variances of loading per event and per season. Then a simulation method is used to estimate complete pdf of these random variables. Use of the model for alternative methods of controlling P-loading is briefly discussed, as well as the economics of control.     

Evaluation of fractionation effects during the early stages of primary migration

A stepwise extraction technique, based on that of Beletskaya (1972), has been aplied to sedimentary rock samples of variable grain size and maturity from a Neogene sequence in the Pannonian Basin (S.E. Hungary). The resulting chloroform extracts, claimed by Beletskaya (1978) to sample “open” and mineralogically “closed” pores, have been analysed by gas chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Differences in the concentrations of the two extracts and the concentrations of their hydrocarbon fractions, and in the distributions of $\text{n}$-alkanes and steroid hydrocarbons suggest that either the “open” pores are impregnated with mature oil which has migrated from depth, or that movement of organic material from the “closed” to “open” pores occurs with considerable fractionation based on both polarity and molecular size. The implications of these differences for source rock-oil correlation studies are discussed and an assessment of mechanisms for primary migration is given.     

Middle to late Miocene sequence stratigraphy of the Transylvanian Basin (Romania)

The history of Middle to Late Miocene evolution of the Transylvanian Basin was determined by the bordering Carpathian orogen evolution, the tectonic events being well recorded by the sedimentary history. The basin evolved in a back-arc setting, under a regional, compressional stress field. The major tectonic events produced during the Late Sarmatian and Post-Pannonian were related to the reactivation of the pre-Badenian fault systems. The Transylvanian Basin got uplifted after the Late Pannonian (? during the Pliocene), and at least 500 m of sedimentary cover was eroded.

Based on seismic and well-log interpretation, core and outcrop sedimentology, and microfauna, eight sequences were defined. The early Middle Miocene sequences are roughly synchronous to five 3rd order global sea-level cycles. Most of the recognized sequence boundaries are enhanced by regional tectonic events. The sedimentary evolution was also strongly influenced by salt-tectonics, active starting with the Late Sarmatian.

Two sequences were identified in the Lower Badenian deposits. The third sequence (late Early Badenian to early Mid Badenian) preserves information about deeper shelf settings. The lowstand of the following sequence was responsible for the deposition of the salt formation (late Mid Badenian), an important lithostratigraphic marker in the sedimentary record of the basin. In general, the Upper Badenian deposits (parts of the 4th and 5th sequences) belong to deep marine submarine fan systems. The Sarmatian (partially 5th, 6th and partially 7th sequences) was characterized by diverse salinity conditions, stretching from brackish to hypersaline, and by high tectonic instability, which induced several significant relative sea-level falls. During that time, deltaic (north) and fandeltaic (east) systems fed submarine fans, stacked between salt-related submarine heights (“channeled” deep-marine depocenters). Most of the Pannonian deposits (partially 7th and 8th sequences) belong to submarine fan systems, but shallower facies were also found in the western and eastern part of the basin.     

Sensitivity of the C and O production on the 3α rate

We investigate the dependence of the carbon and oxygen production in stars on the 3α rate by varying the energy of the 0⁺ ₂-state of ¹²C and determine the resulting yields for a selection of low-mass, intermediate-mass and massive stars. The yields are obtained using modern stellar evolution codes that follow the entire evolution of massive stars, including the supernova explosion, and consider in detail the 3^rd dredge-up process during the thermally pulsating asymptotic giant branch of low-mass and intermediate-mass stars. Our results show that the C and O production in massive stars depends strongly on the initial mass, and that it is crucial to follow the entire evolution. A rather strong C production during the He-shell flashes compared to quiescent He burning leads to a lower sensitivity of the C and O production in low-mass and intermediate-mass stars on the 3α-rate than predicted in our previous work. In particular, the C production of intermediate-mass stars seems to have a maximum close to the actual value of the 0⁺ ₂ energy level of ¹²C. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A forecast of public water scarcity on Leu-Rotunda Plain,Romania, for the end of the 21st century

The article examines the risk of water shortages due to the climate change on Leu-Rotunda Plain, which is part of Oltenia Plain in Romania. The region has been exposed to several extreme climatic phenomena, mostly droughts, which has created several problems related to water quality and quantity. The authors defined climate change scenarios using two regional climate models. Water resources under climate change were estimated by a regional numerical groundwater model covering a deep aquifer. The water demand components were estimated for households, industries, services, and livestock, based on specific socio-economic assumptions. A non-probabilistic risk assessment, using simplified fuzzy sets mathematics, was used to estimate water supply, water demand, and the consequences of water shortages. The results of the study revealed significant vulnerability in the water supply, a limited territorial expansion of sewerage networks, an expected increase in households’ demand, an expected increase in industrial and services water demand, a relatively stable demand for water for livestock farming, and an important water shortage in the study area. The authors conclude by highlighting a set of actions to mitigate the risk of the potential crisis.     

Improved Analyses and Forecasts With AIRS Temperature Retrievals Using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter

In this paper we investigate the impact of the Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals on data assimilation and the resulting forecasts using the four-dimensional Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation scheme and a reduced resolution version of the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). Our results indicate that the AIRS temperature retrievals have a significant and consistent positive impact in the Southern Hemispheric extratropics on both analyses and forecasts, which is found not only in the temperature field but also in other variables. In tropics and the Northern Hemispheric extratropics these impacts are smaller, but are still generally positive or neutral.     

Effect of Flow on Resonant Absorption of Slow MHD Waves in Coronal Arcades

Resonant absorption of slow MHD waves is studied numerically by using the SGH method and is applied to a model of a coronal arcade in the presence of equilibrium plasma flows. The arcade is approximated by a 1D horizontal magnetic slab that is non-uniform along the vertical direction and which is surrounded by two homogeneous media. While propagating from the photosphere upwards into the corona, the magneto-acoustic waves can be resonantly absorbed in the inhomogeneous region of the arcade. Computational results show that the resonant absorption of the impinging waves strongly depends on the equilibrium model and on the characteristics of the driving wave. The results also indicate that the presence of an equilibrium plasma flow along the magnetic field of the arcade reduces the resonant absorption for the flow speed parameters considered.