Atmospheric river orientation determines flood occurrence

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) have been linked to many of the largest recorded UK winter floods. These large-scale features can be 500–800 km in width but produce markedly different flood responses in adjacent catchments. Here we combine meteorological and hydrological data to examine why two impermeable catchments on the west coast of Britain respond differently to landfalling ARs. This is important to help better understand flood generation associated with ARs and improve flood forecasting and climate-change impact assessment. Analysis of 32 years of a newly available ERA5 high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis and corresponding 15-min river flow data show that the most impactful ARs arise through a combination of the orientation and magnitude of their water vapour flux. At the Dyfi catchment, AR orientations of between 238–258° result in the strongest hydrological responses, whereas at the Teifi the range is 224–243°. We believe this differential flood response is the result of catchment orientation and topography enhancing or suppressing orographic rainfall totals, even in relatively low-relief coastal catchments. Further to the AR orientation, ARs must have an average water vapour flux of 400–450 kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹ across their lifetime. Understanding the preferential properties of impactful ARs at catchments allows for the linking of large-scale synoptic features, such as ARs, directly to winter flood impacts. These results using two test catchments suggest a novel approach to flood forecasts through the inclusion of AR activity.     

Emplacement age of the Markagunt gravity slide in southwestern Utah,USA

The Markagunt gravity slide (MGS) is a large-volume landslide in southwestern Utah that originated within the Oligocene-Miocene Marysvale volcanic field. Gravity slides are single emplacement events with long runout distances and are now recognized as a new class of volcanic hazard. Accumulation of volcanic material on a structurally weak substrate along with voluminous shallow intrusive events led to collapse. Here, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data for landslide-generated pseudotachylyte, the landslide-capping Haycock Mountain Tuff and the deformed Osiris Tuff are combined with a Bayesian age model to determine an emplacement age of 23.05 + 0.22/−0.20 Ma for the MGS. The results suggest a lag time of <200 kyr between the caldera-forming eruption of the Osiris Tuff, additional buildup of the unstable volcanic pile and subsequent mass movement.     

Spatial autocorrelation mixtures in geospatial disease data: An important global epidemiologic/public health assessment ingredient?

Geographic-oriented public health has a time-honored history, beginning with such classic assessments as John Snow's cholera deaths vis-à-vis London's Broad Street water pump. His constructed map illustrates how gathering locational information about diseases and mapping its static as well as diffusion map patterns benefit society in the long run. Spatial autocorrelation (SA)—a habitual manifestation of geospatial data locational tagging/indexing characterizing their nonrandom mixture of attribute values across a geographic landscape—latent in georeferenced disease data, is a key feature of such assessment instruments. The objective of this article is to highlight the presence of positive–negative SA mixtures, rather than solely positive SA, in global epidemiologic/public health data, regardless of the place on Earth that houses them, and consequential impacts on the assessment of such data.