Solar shield: forecasting and mitigating space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission systems

In this paper, central elements of the Solar Shield project, launched to design and establish an experimental system capable of forecasting the space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission system, are described. It will be shown how Sun–Earth system data and models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) are used to generate two-level magnetohydrodynamics-based forecasts providing 1–2 day and 30–60 min lead-times. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) represents the end-user, the power transmission industry, in the project. EPRI integrates the forecast products to an online display tool providing information about space weather conditions to the member power utilities. EPRI also evaluates the economic impacts of severe storms on power transmission systems. The economic analysis will quantify the economic value of the generated forecasting system. The first version of the two-level forecasting system is currently running in real-time at CCMC. An initial analysis of the system’s capabilities has been completed, and further analysis is being carried out to optimize the performance of the system. Although the initial results are encouraging, definite conclusions about system’s performance can be given only after more extensive analysis, and implementation of an automatic evaluation process using forecasted and observed geomagnetically induced currents from different nodes of the North American power transmission system. The final output of the Solar Shield will be a recommendation for an optimal forecasting system that may be transitioned into space weather operations.     

The impact of precipitation on speed–flow relationships along a UK motorway corridor

Although the fundamental traffic diagram provides the characteristics of a typical road traffic speed–flow relationship, little consideration has been given to the impact of adverse weather conditions on the relationship and the subsequent impact on local speed–flow. For the first time, this study uses precipitation radar along with a state-of-the art traffic information system to ascertain the relationship between speed–flow and precipitation on a UK transport corridor at the local (junction to junction) scale. It is evident that precipitation causes a significant reduction in speed and maximum flow on many links of the corridor as well as a downward reduction in the overall speed-flow relationship. With increased instances of heavy precipitation predicted in the UK as a result of climate change, these findings highlight the subsequent impact on journey travel times and associated economic costs.     

The critical behaviour of a power law between preseismic electric signals and earthquakes of different mechanism in Greece and Japan

The consistency of the critical exponent in the power law relation between the stress drop of the earthquake and the lead time of the precursory seismic electric signal is checked using new data from the recent M _w 4.9 earthquake of strike-slip mechanism that occurred on 12 November 2013 in northern Evia island, Greece and the megathrust M _w 9.0 Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011, in Japan. For the first case, the derived exponent is in excellent agreement with previous ones obtained from all non thrust events analysed by the author and matches the value of critical exponent for fracture. On the other hand, the megathrust Tohoku earthquake follows the behaviour of all thrust events studied by the author, and thus, the calculated exponent significantly deviates from this critical value. The different behaviour between non thrust and thrust-type events could be attributed to the fact that thrust mechanism earthquakes usually occur in collision or subduction zones which are characterised by high accumulation of strain. However, a larger number of thrust events are required in order to obtain reliable results and shed light in the above experimental findings.     

A physical model for the precursory magnetic anomalies of the M5.4 Alum Rock and M6.0 Parkfield earthquakes

Here, we propose an alternative physical model, based on the concept of criticality, for the explanation of the observed magnetic signals prior to the M6.0 Parkfield and the M5.4 Alum Rock earthquakes. Motivated by an analogous experience from major earthquakes in Greece, where both magnetic field variations and seismic electric signals were also recorded few weeks before the main shock, we suggest that in all these cases, similar dynamic processes characterized by critical behaviour should govern the corresponding pre-focal areas when the relevant precursory signals emerged.     

Aspects on the origin of the precursory magnetic anomalies of the Mw 6.4 Aquila earthquake

An anomalous behaviour of the scaling exponent derived from the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) of the time series of low frequency variations of the horizontal and vertical magnetic field components has been recently reported as being observed 2 months prior to the Mw 6.3 earthquake on 6 April 2009, close to L’Aquila city, Italy. Here, we suggest a possible physical explanation of this effect based on the experience from similar measurements in Greece. In particular, for example, we compare these observations associated with Aquila earthquake with the ones of the Mw 6.6 earthquake on 13 May 1995 at Kozani-Grevena, Greece where both magnetic field variations and seismic electric signals (SES) were recorded. Almost 1 month before the latter earthquake, anomalous variations in both electric and magnetic field were detected, the time series of that were analysed by means of DFA and led to an exponent close to unity. Similarly, the calculated DFA exponent for the Aquila earthquake time series of the anomalous magnetic field variations 2 months before the main shock was also found close to unity. These results could imply that in the case of Aquila, according to the Maxwell’s laws, one should expect to observe simultaneously with the magnetic signal an associated SES activity, provided that an appropriate station to monitoring the earth’s electric field variations in the same area was available. Hence, it seems that similar underlying non-linear dynamic processes in mechanical and as well as electromagnetic sense, with features of criticality, dominated in both pre-focal areas.     

Continuous zircon growth during long-lived granulite facies metamorphism: a microtextural,U–Pb,Lu–Hf and trace element study of Caledonian rocks from the Arctic

Microtextural, U–Pb, trace element and Lu–Hf analyses of zircons from gneisses dredged from the Chukchi Borderland indicate a long-lived, Cambrian–Ordovician, granulite facies metamorphism. These results reveal a complete prograde, peak and cooling history of zircon growth during anatexis. Early increasing temperatures caused modification and Pb-loss of Precambrian zircons by recrystallization and dissolution/re-precipitation of existing grains. Small variations in initial ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf results (0.282325–0.282042) and flat HREE patterns of these zircons indicate that they grew by dissolution/re-precipitation in the presence of garnet. Zircons subsequently crystallized from a partial melt during peak to post-peak metamorphism from 530 to 485 Ma. A broad range of initial ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf ratios (0.282693–0.282050) and mineral inclusions within zircons suggest that this phase of growth incorporated Zr and Hf obtained from the breakdown of Zr-enriched phases. Microtextural evidence along with trace element and isotopic data suggests that final growth of metamorphic rims on zircon occurred during slow cooling and crystallization of residual partial melts during the early Ordovician (485–470 Ma). Younger, late Ordovician–Silurian (420–450 Ma) euhedral, oscillatory-zoned, trace element-enriched zircons crystallized within leucocratic veins that intrude the gneisses. Their age corresponds to granitoids dated from this same dredge. The intrusives and veins provide evidence that the Chukchi Borderland rifted from a position near Pearya and northwest Svalbard, which represent the northern continuation of the Caledonian orogen. Evidence for earlier Cambrian metamorphism has not been reported from this region. The age of granulite facies metamorphism reported here represents the earliest phase of deformation in the Arctic Caledonides.     

Mapping collective human activity in an urban environment based on mobile phone data

Identifying and characterizing variations of human activity – specifically changes in intensity and similarity – in urban environments provide insights into the social component of those eminently complex systems. Using large volumes of user-generated mobile phone data, we derive mobile communication profiles that we use as a proxy for the collective human activity. In this article, geocomputational methods and geovisual analytics such as self-organizing maps (SOM) are used to explore the variations of these profiles, and its implications for collective human activity. We evaluate the merits of SOM as a cross-dimensional clustering technique and derived temporal trajectories of variations within the mobile communication profiles. The trajectories’ characteristics such as length are discussed, suggesting spatial variations in intensity and similarity in collective human activity. Trajectories are linked back to the geographic space to map the spatial and temporal variation of trajectory characteristics. Different trajectory lengths suggest that mobile phone activity is correlated with the spatial configuration of the city, and so at different times of the day. Our approach contributes to the understanding of the space-time social dynamics within urban environments.     

Variation and pattern in the responses of mammal faunas to Late Pleistocene climatic change in southeastern South Australia

We examined mammal occurrence and variability through the Late Pleistocene vertebrate fossil deposit of Grant Hall in Victoria Fossil Cave, Naracoorte, South Australia. To determine long‐term patterns of change, we compared the composition and relative abundance trends of the assemblage with a nearby Middle Pleistocene deposit in Cathedral Cave. Total species richness did not change through the Grant Hall sequence, dated from 93 ± 8 to 70 ± 5 ka. However, species relative abundances varied between ecologically divergent species, and in some cases between species that demonstrate similar environmental preferences. For some species this variation is comparable to that recorded in Cathedral Cave. Of those showing similar trends between the two deposits, the forest inhabitant, Pseudomys fumeus, recorded an 8.6% decline through Grant Hall, coincident with a 9.7% increase in the dry heath/mallee dweller Pseudomys apodemoides. These patterns indicate that climatic transition from relatively warm, moist to cooler, drier conditions impacted some species in similar ways through climatic cycles of the past. However, the majority of the fauna demonstrated complex responses that are individual and variable through time. Statistical tests of species trends from the Grant Hall assemblage caution that large fossil samples are required to validate patterns observed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘Whose science?’ Precaution and power-play in European marine environmental decision-making

This paper explores the science–policy interface in environmental decision-making in the European Community as it moves towards its stated aims of implementing a precautionary and ecosystem-based approach to marine environmental management. Whilst recent EC case law has clarified some questions of Member State responsibilities under international environmental obligations, recent case studies at the crossing point between marine nature conservation and fisheries management in EC waters raise questions about the role of science in policy-making in Brussels. This has important implications for the developing EC Integrated Maritime Policy and Marine Strategy Framework Directive, and the concept of Maritime Spatial Planning as a whole. A new paradigm for bridging the science–policy gap is required in light of the developing legislative framework and given the complex nature of the marine environment.