The impact of el Nino‐Southern oscillation on the temperature field over Canada: Research note

Abstract

The impact of the two phases of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely El Niño and La Niña, on the surface and lower tropospheric temperature fields over Canada is documented. Gridded surface temperature data for 91 years (1900–1990) and 500–1000 hPa thickness data for 49 years (1946–1994) have been analyzed statistically in the context of El Niño, La Niña and normal years.

Using a composite analysis, the present study conclusively demonstrates that significant positive surface temperature anomalies spread eastward from the west coast of Canada to the Labrador coast from the late fall to early spring (November through May) following the onset of El Niño episodes. The accompanying temperatures in the lower troposphere show a transition from the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern to the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH) pattern over the North American sector during the same period. Conversely, significant negative surface temperature anomalies spread southeastward from the Yukon and extend into the upper Great Lakes region by the winter season following the onset of La Niña episodes. Furthermore, the lower tropospheric temperatures show a negatively‐phased PNA‐like pattern in early winter which weakens considerably by May of the following year. Thus, while western Canadian surface temperatures are influenced during both phases of ENSO, eastern Canadian surface temperature effects are found during the El Niño phase only. The impact of ENSO on the Canadian surface temperatures is the strongest during the winter season and nearly disappears by spring (April and May). The largest positive (negative) anomalies are found to be centred over two separate regions, one over the Yukon and the other just west of Hudson Bay in the El Niño (La Niña) years. Over western Canada, mean wintertime temperature distribution of the El Niño (La Niña) years is found to be shifted towards warmer (colder) values relative to the distribution of the normal years.

This study suggests the possibility of developing a long‐range forecasting technique for Canada using ENSO related indices.     

Substructure and the cusp and fold relations

Gravitational lensing of a background source by a foreground galaxy lens occasionally produces four images of the source. The cusp and the fold relations impose conditions on the ratios of magnifications of these four-image lenses. In this theoretical investigation, we explore the sensitivity of these relations to the presence of substructure in the lens. Starting with a smooth lens potential, we add varying amounts of substructure, while keeping the source position fixed, and find that the fold relation is a more robust indicator of substructure than the cusp relation for the images. This robustness is independent of the detailed spatial distribution of the substructure, as well as of the ellipticity of the lensing potential and the presence of external shear.     

Numerical Modeling of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Storm Surge in the Gulf of Oman Using a Storm Surge–Wave–Tide Coupled Model

Ocean Science Journal - A storm surge is a complex phenomenon in which current, tide, and waves interact with each other. Even if the wind is the main force of driving the surge, waves and tide are...     

Comparison of Speed-Up Over Hills Derived from Wind-Tunnel Experiments,Wind-Loading Standards,and Numerical Modelling

We evaluate the accuracy of the speed-up provided in several wind-loading standards by comparison with wind-tunnel measurements and numerical predictions, which are carried out at a nominal scale of 1:500 and full-scale, respectively. Airflow over two- and three-dimensional bell-shaped hills is numerically modelled using the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes method with a pressure-driven atmospheric boundary layer and three different turbulence models. Investigated in detail are the effects of grid size on the speed-up and flow separation, as well as the resulting uncertainties in the numerical simulations. Good agreement is obtained between the numerical prediction of speed-up, as well as the wake region size and location, with that according to large-eddy simulations and the wind-tunnel results. The numerical results demonstrate the ability to predict the airflow over a hill with good accuracy with considerably less computational time than for large-eddy simulation. Numerical simulations for a three-dimensional hill show that the speed-up and the wake region decrease significantly when compared with the flow over two-dimensional hills due to the secondary flow around three-dimensional hills. Different hill slopes and shapes are simulated numerically to investigate the effect of hill profile on the speed-up. In comparison with more peaked hill crests, flat-topped hills have a lower speed-up at the crest up to heights of about half the hill height, for which none of the standards gives entirely satisfactory values of speed-up. Overall, the latest versions of the National Building Code of Canada and the Australian and New Zealand Standard give the best predictions of wind speed over isolated hills.     

Bringing globalization to the countryside: Special Economic Zones in India

Special Economic Zones (SEZs) are important vectors of neoliberal globalization in India. Despite facing widespread resistance against the proposed land acquisition for these zones, they are still being promoted across the country. We argue that the wealth redistribution to the country's elites and the fractured resistance movements enable neoliberalism and its practices to grow in the countryside. Using a private sector SEZ in Gurgaon as a case study, this article explores how special economic zoning, as a neoliberal policy, has been implicated in the spatialized production of poverty. We also show that the main actors who promote neoliberalism in India (the state and the large‐scale urban private sector) have found a seemingly unlikely ally in rural India in the form of farmers with large landholdings, rural elites who are willing to let go of their land under certain conditions. The data for the article was collected in India in 2009–10.     

Intentional contamination of water distribution networks: developing indicators for sensitivity and vulnerability assessments

Performing a comprehensive risk analysis is primordial to ensure a reliable and sustainable water supply. Though the general framework of risk analysis is well established, specific adaptation seems needed for systems such as water distribution networks (WDN). Understanding of vulnerabilities of WDN against deliberate contamination and consumers’ sensitivity against contaminated water use is very vital to inform decision-maker. This paper presents an innovative step-by-step methodology for developing comprehensive indicators to perform sensitivity, vulnerability and criticality analyses in case of absence of early warning system (EWS). The assessment and the aggregation of these indicators with specific fuzzy operators allow identifying the most critical points in a WDN. Intentional intrusion of contaminants at these points can potentially harm both the consumers as well as water infrastructure. The implementation of the developed methodology has been demonstrated through a case study of a French WDN unequipped with sensors.     

Lithology-dependent seismic anisotropic amplitude variation with offset correction in transversely isotropic media

Analysis of amplitude variation with offset is an essential step for reservoir characterization. For an accurate reservoir characterization, the amplitude obtained with an isotropic assumption of the reservoir must be corrected for the anisotropic effects. The objective is seismic anisotropic amplitude correction in an effective medium, and, to this end, values and signs of anisotropic parameter differences (Δδ and Δε) across the reflection interfaces are needed. These parameters can be identified by seismic and well log data. A new technique for anisotropic amplitude correction was developed to modify amplitude changes in seismic data in transversely isotropic media with a vertical axis of symmetry. The results show that characteristics of pre-stack seismic data, that is, amplitude variation with offset gradient, can be potentially related to the sign of anisotropic parameter differences (Δδ and Δε) between two layers of the reflection boundary. The proposed methodology is designed to attain a proper fit between modelled and observed amplitude variation with offset responses, after anisotropic correction, for all possible lithofacies at the reservoir boundary. We first estimate anisotropic parameters, that is, δ and ε, away from the wells through Backus averaging of elastic properties resulted from the first pass of isotropic pre-stack seismic inversion, on input data with no amplitude correction. Next, we estimate the anisotropic parameter differences at reflection interfaces (values and signs of Δδ and Δε). We then generate seismic angle gather data after anisotropic amplitude correction using Rüger's equation for the P-P reflection coefficient. The second pass of isotropic pre-stack seismic inversion is then performed on the amplitude-corrected data, and elastic properties are estimated. Final outcome demonstrates how introduced methodology helps to reduce the uncertainty of elastic property prediction. Pre-stack seismic inversion on amplitude-corrected seismic data results in more accurate elastic property prediction than what can be obtained from non-corrected data. Moreover, a new anisotropy attribute (ν) is presented for improvement of lithology identification.     

Socio-hydrological framework for investigating farmers’ activities affecting the shrinkage of Urmia Lake; hybrid data mining and agent-based modelling

ABSTRACT

Developing a general framework to capture the complexities associated with the non-linear and adaptive nature of farmers facing water resources scarcity is a challenging problem. This paper integrates agent-based modelling (ABM) and a data mining method to develop a hybrid socio-hydrological framework to provide future insights for policy-makers. The data associated with the farmers’ main characteristics were collected through field surveys and interviews. Afterwards, the association rule was employed to discover the main patterns representing the farmers’ agricultural decisions. The discovered patterns were then used as the behavioural rules in ABM to simulate the agricultural activities. The proposed framework has been was applied to explore the interactions between agricultural activities and the main river feeding the Urmia-Lake, Iran. The outcomes indicate that farmers’ acquisitive traits and belongings have significant impacts on their socio-hydrological interactions. The reported values of the efficiency criteria may support the satisfactory performance of the proposed framework.