Cloud measurements on day 245 of gate

Abstract

On day 245 of GATE (2 September 1974) two lines of convection ‐ north (N) and south (S) ‐ were studied by aircraft stacked vertically, patrolling a north‐south line at longitude 22.85° W of length about 200 km. These lines were part of a complex of convection related to an easterly wave. Photogrammetry shows that the northern line consisted at first of a dense aggregate of small clouds, of width roughly 50 m at cloud base. There were a few tall clouds. No line organization was apparent from the aircraft at 1208 GMT. Fifteen minutes later there was line organization, readily apparent from the DC‐6 aircraft. From study of Electra and DC‐6 records, it appears that a vigorous cold northeasterly surface current initiated line N, and that this was a downdraft originating at altitude about 2.5 km in a mesoscale cloud feature to the north. It appears further that penetrative convection to 14 km followed after the first rain, which moistened air near the surface, and thus lowered cloud bases from about 500 to 350 m.

In overhangs of cloud, anvils to the north of line S, active cloud towers only about 2 km wide were found. The anvils were roughly 2 km thick. Patterns of clouds corresponded to a profile of A/B‐scale divergence; active towers at low levels corresponded to convergence up to the 60 kPa level, and stratus coincided with A/B‐scale divergence aloft at about 50 and 26 kPa.

Statistical analyses from the aircraft films indicated that the area covered by clouds of dark base ‐ signifying concentrated updrafts ‐ was ～5%, much less than that covered by rain at cloud base, ～ 18%. Cloud cover at altitude 4 km was ～ 10%.     

A diagnostic study of the southern hemisphere summer circulation of the CCC general circulation model

Abstract

The medium‐scale wave regime, consisting largely of zonal wavenumbers 5–7, frequently dominates the summer Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation. We perform a diagnostic study of this circulation as simulated by the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model (GCM). The analysis of Hövmöller diagrams, space‐time and zonal wavenumber spectra shows that the CCC GCM is able to simulate the observed medium‐scale wave regime.

The zonally averaged meridional eddy heat and momentum transports and the associated baroclinic and barotropic energy conversions are also examined. The distributions of the transports on the vertical plane agree well with the observations. After comparison with the observed December‐January‐February 1979 distributions, some quantitative differences remain: the heat transport is too weak aloft and too large near the surface, whereas the momentum transport tends to be too weak. The baroclinic and barotropic conversions show a maximum in the medium‐scale waves. The time evolution of the Richardson number of the mean flow suggests that the medium‐scale wave is due to a baroclinic instability.     

Modulation of tropical ocean surface chlorophyll by the Madden–Julian Oscillation

The MJO modulation of sea surface chlorophyll-a (Chl) examined initially by Waliser et al. in Geophys Res Lett, (2005) is revisited with a significantly longer time-series of observations and a more systematic approach to characterizing the possible mechanisms underlying the MJO-Chl relationships. The MJO composite analysis of Chl and lead-lag correlations between Chl and other physical variables reveal regional variability of Chl and corresponding indicative temporal relationships among variables. Along the path of the MJO convection, wind speed—a proxy for oceanic vertical turbulent mixing and corresponding entrainment—is most strongly correlated with Chl when wind leads Chl by a few days. Composite Chl also displays MJO influences away from the path of the MJO convection. The role of wind speed in those regions is generally the same for Chl variability as that along the path of the MJO convection, although Ekman pumping also plays a role in generating Chl variability in limited regions. However, the wind forcing away from the MJO convection path is less coherent, rendering the temporal link relatively weak. Lastly, the potential for bio-physical feedbacks at the MJO time-scale is examined. The correlation analysis provides tantalizing evidence for local bio-feedbacks to the physical MJO system. Plausible hypothesis for Chl to amplify the MJO phase transition is presented though it cannot be affirmed in this study and will be examined and reported in a future modeling study.     

Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea

The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO₂ at a rate of 1% per year until CO₂ reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO₂ doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.     

Regional climate modelling over complex terrain: an evaluation study of COSMO-CLM hindcast model runs for the Greater Alpine Region

In this study the results of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) covering the Greater Alpine Region (GAR, 4°–19°W and 43°–49°N) were evaluated against observational data. The simulation was carried out as a hindcast run driven by ERA-40 reanalysis data for the period 1961–2000. The spatial resolution of the model data presented is approx. 10 km per grid point. For the evaluation purposes a variety of observational datasets were used: CRU TS 2.1, E-OBS, GPCC4 and HISTALP. Simple statistics such as mean biases, correlations, trends and annual cycles of temperature and precipitation for different sub-regions were applied to verify the model performance. Furthermore, the altitude dependence of these statistical measures has been taken into account. Compared to the CRU and E-OBS datasets CCLM shows an annual mean cold bias of ?0.6 and ?0.7 °C, respectively. Seasonal precipitation sums are generally overestimated by +8 to +23 % depending on the observational dataset with large variations in space and season. Bias and correlation show a dependency on altitude especially in the winter and summer seasons. Temperature trends in CCLM contradict the signals from observations, showing negative trends in summer and autumn which are in contrast to CRU and E-OBS.     

Correction to “the vertical distribution of climate forcings and feedbacks from the surface to top of atmosphere”

We discuss here a mistake in the analysis of Previdi and Liepert (Clim Dyn, 2011). In that article, the surface albedo radiative kernels were calculated incorrectly. We present in this brief comment the corrected albedo kernels. We then use these kernels to compute the surface albedo radiative feedback in climate model simulations driven by increasing carbon dioxide, as in Previdi and Liepert (Clim Dyn, 2011). We find that the use of the corrected albedo kernels does not change the conclusions of our earlier work.     

Evaluation of twentieth-century Atlantic Warm Pool simulations in historical CMIP5 runs

State-of-the-art coupled global climate models are evaluated for their simulation of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP). Historical runs from 17 coupled climate models included in the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) serve as the basis for this model evaluation study. The model simulations are directly compared to observations and reanalysis data to evaluate the climatological features and variability of the AWP within each individual model. Results reveal that a select number of models—namely the GISS-E2-R, CSIRO-Mk3.6, and MPI-ESM-LR—are successful at resolving an appropriately sized AWP with some reasonable climatological features. However, these three models exhibit an erroneously broad seasonal peak of the AWP, and its variability is significantly underestimated. Furthermore, all of the CMIP5 models exhibit a significant cold bias across the tropical Atlantic basin, which hinders their ability to accurately resolve the AWP.     

Simulated impacts of afforestation in East China monsoon region as modulated by ocean variability

Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3.5, this paper examines the climatic effects of afforestation in the East China monsoon region with a focus on land–atmosphere interactions and the modulating influence of ocean variability. In response to afforestation, the local surface air temperature significantly decreases in summer and increases in winter. The summer cooling is attributed to enhanced evapotranspiration from increased tree cover. During winter, afforestation induces greater roughness and weaker winds over the adjacent coastal ocean, leading to diminished latent heat flux and increased sea-surface temperature (SST). The enhanced SST supports greater atmospheric water vapor, which is accompanied by anomalous wind, and transported into the East China monsoon region. The increase in atmospheric water vapor favors more cloud cover and precipitation, especially in the eastern afforestation region. Furthermore, the increase in atmospheric water vapor and cloud cover produce a greenhouse effect, raising the wintertime surface air temperature. By comparing simulations in which ocean temperature are either fixed or variable, we demonstrate that a significant hydrologic response in East China to afforestation only occurs if ocean temperatures are allowed to vary and the oceanic source of moisture to the continent is enhanced.     

Assessing vulnerability due to sea-level rise in Maui, Hawai‘i using LiDAR remote sensing and GIS

Sea-level rise (SLR) threatens islands and coastal communities due to vulnerable infrastructure and populations concentrated in low-lying areas. LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data were used to produce high-resolution DEMs (Digital Elevation Model) for Kahului and Lahaina, Maui, to assess the potential impacts of future SLR. Two existing LiDAR datasets from USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) were compared and calibrated using the Kahului Harbor tide station. Using tidal benchmarks is a valuable approach for referencing LiDAR in areas lacking an established vertical datum, such as in Hawai‘i and other Pacific Islands. Exploratory analysis of the USACE LiDAR ground returns (point data classified as ground after the removal of vegetation and buildings) indicated that another round of filtering could reduce commission errors. Two SLR scenarios of 0.75 (best-case) to 1.9 m (worst-case) (Vermeer and Rahmstorf Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:21527–21532, 2009) were considered, and the DEMs were used to identify areas vulnerable to flooding. Our results indicate that if no adaptive strategies are taken, a loss ranging from $18.7 million under the best-case SLR scenario to $296 million under the worst-case SLR scenario for Hydrologically Connected (HC; marine inundation) and Hydrologically Disconnected (HD; drainage problems due to a higher water table) areas combined is possible for Kahului; a loss ranging from $57.5 million under the best-case SLR scenario to $394 million under the worst-case SLR scenario for HC and HD areas combined is possible for Lahaina towards the end of the century. This loss would be attributable to inundation between 0.55 km² to 2.13 km² of area for Kahului, and 0.04 km² to 0.37 km² of area for Lahaina.