Secondary phase validation—Phase classification by polarization

A long-standing problem in operational seismology is that of reliable focal depth estimation. Standard analyst practice is to pick and identify a ‘phase’ in the P-coda. This picking will always produce a depth estimate but without any validation it cannot be trusted. In this article we ‘hunt’ for standard depth phases like pP, sP and/or PmP but unlike the analyst we use Bayes statistics for classifying the probability that polarization characteristics of pickings belong to one of the mentioned depth phases given preliminary epicenter information. In this regard we describe a general-purpose PC implementation of the Bayesian methodology that can deal with complex nonlinear models in a flexible way. The models are represented by a data-flow diagram that may be manipulated by the analyst through a graphical-programming environment. An analytic signal representation is used with the imaginary part being the Hilbert transform of the signal itself. The pickings are in terms of a plot of posterior probabilities as a function of time for pP, Sp or PmP being within the presumed azimuth and incident angle sectors for given preliminary epicenter locations. We have tested this novel focal depth estimation procedure on explosion and earthquake recordings from Cossack Ranger II stations in Karelia, NW Russia, and with encouraging results. For example, pickings deviating more than 5° off ‘true’ azimuth are rejected while Pn-incident angle estimate exhibit considerable scatter. A comprehensive test of our approach is not quite easy as recordings from so-called Ground Truth events are elusive.     

Relation between mean stress,thermodynamic, and lithostatic pressure

Pressure is one of the most important parameters to be quantified in geological problems. However, in metamorphic systems the pressure is usually calculated with two different approaches. One pressure calculation is based on petrological phase equilibria and this pressure is often termed thermodynamic pressure. The other calculation is based on continuum mechanics, which provides a mean stress that is commonly used to estimate the thermodynamic pressure. Both thermodynamic pressure calculations can be justified by the accuracy and applicability of the results. Here, we consider systems with low‐differential stress (<1 kbar) and no irreversible volumetric deformation, and refer to them as conventional systems. We investigate the relationship between mean stress and thermodynamic pressure. We discuss the meaning of thermodynamic pressure and its calculation for irreversible processes such as viscous deformation and heat conduction, which exhibit entropy production. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the mean stress for incompressible viscous deformation is essentially equal to the mean stress for the corresponding viscous deformation with elastic compressibility, if the characteristic time of deformation is five times longer than the Maxwell viscoelastic relaxation time that is equal to the ratio of shear viscosity to bulk modulus. For typical lithospheric rocks, this Maxwell time is smaller than c. 10,000 years. Therefore, numerical simulations of long‐term (>10 kyr) geodynamic processes, employing incompressible deformation, provide mean stress values that are close to the mean‐stress value associated with elastic compressibility. Finally, we show that for conventional systems the mean stress is essentially equal to the thermodynamic pressure. However, mean stress and, hence, thermodynamic pressure can be significantly different from the lithostatic pressure.     

Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of mesoplankton in the northwestern Japan Sea

Based upon four decades of observations in the northwestern part of the Japan Sea, the seasonal and inter-annual variations of zooplankton abundance and species composition in the epipelagic layer are considered. Seasonal characteristics of the zooplankton community are described in detail for five domains that occur within this part of the Japan Sea. Inter-decadal variation was not significant, but inter-annual variation was considerable and generally opposite to water temperature changes in the upper layer. Exceptional years such as 1996 were noted when a maximum abundance of zooplankton in summer occurred along with a slowing of the seasonal pattern of succession.     

On Conditions of Phytoplankton Blooms in the Coastal Waters of the North-Western East/Japan Sea

Seasonal changes of abundance of the main phytoplankton groups of species (diatoms, dinoflagellates, chrysophytes, small flagellates and cryptophytes) and a set of environmental parameters were investigated in coastal and preestuarine waters of Peter the Great Bay (East/Japan Sea) in May-October of 1998 and 1999. Three periods of mass development were revealed: spring, summer and autumn blooms, with successive change of species. The conditions favourable for each group of species were determined. Driving mechanisms of the succession include nutrients transport through seasonal pycnocline by turbulent mixing, terrestrial nutrients supply by monsoon floods, nutrients supply by upwellings, and light control by the thickness of upper mixed layer. Summer succession could be explained by a simple SST-MLD diagram similar to Pingree S-kh diagram with sea surface temperature as indicator of stratification (S) and mixed layer depth as indicator of light availability (kh).     

The Brunhes-Matuyama boundary in Western Beringia: a review

Early-Middle Pleistocene deposits have been studied in Central and Northern Yakutia, the Magadan region, and Chukotka. The Brunhes-Matuyama boundary occurs in the Ozheleznenye Galechniki (=Ferruginated pebblestones) beds of Central Yakutia that belong to the Talagay horizon of the Early-Middle Pleistocene. These layers include classic Aldan mammal fauna. In Eastern Yakutia sediments of Early-Middle Pleistocene belong to the Akan horizon, and the Early Pleistocene sediments are from the Chukochya horizon. These sediments which belong to the Olyor Formation and its age-equivalents yielded numerous mammal remains, termed the Olyor faunal complex. The Brunhes-Matuyama boundary is located in Akan horizon. In the upper reaches of the Kolyma River, the Brunhes-Matuyama boundary occurs in sediments of the Middle Pleistocene Belichan horizon. The boundary of the Brunhes-Matuyama is characteristic within the Elhkakvun and Enmakay formations of Chukotka. In Kamchatka, the boundary of Matuyama and Brunhes is evident in volcanic sequences. In the eastern part of the peninsula, this boundary is located in the Tumrok or Iult volcanic complex and in Central Kamchatka in the Kreruk volcanic complex.     

Decadal prediction skill in the GEOS-5 forecast system

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO’s) GEOS-5 Atmosphere–Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO’s atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 % improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.     

Quasi-thermal Noise Spectra Measured by a Dipole Antenna in the Upper Hybrid frequency band

Quasi-thermal noise (QTN) spectroscopy is one of the most effective tools for in situ diagnostics in space plasmas (Meyer-Vernet et al., 1998; Meyer-Vernet and Perche, 1989; Chugunov and Trakhtengerts, 1978). This method produces routine measurements of the bulk electron density and temperature; recently it has been extended to measure the ion bulk speed. Among the advantages of the method its immunity to spacecraft potential and photoelectron perturbations should be noted. Quasi-thermal noise spectroscopy is used particularly on Ulysses and Wind. However for the interpretation of QTN data the calculation of the noise voltage induced on antennas under different conditions is necessary. This question is especially complicated and so far insufficiently studied in magnetized plasmas. In the present paper we calculate the spectrum of the noise voltage induced on a dipole antenna in the upper hybrid frequency range. The computations are adapted to the interpretation of data acquired on the Ulysses and Wind spacecraft. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Observations of the long-lasting activity of the distant Comets 29P Schwassmann-Wachmann 1, C/2003 WT42 (LINEAR) and C/2002 VQ94 (LINEAR)

We investigated three comets, which are active at large heliocentric distances, using observations obtained at the 6-m BTA telescope (SAO RAS, Russia) in the photometric mode of the focal reducer SCORPIO. The three comets, 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1, C/2003 WT42 (LINEAR), and C/2002 VQ94 (LINEAR), were observed after their perihelion passages at heliocentric distances between 5.5 and 7.08 AU. The dust production rates in terms of Afρ was measured for these comets. Using the retrieved values, an average dust production rate was derived under different model assumptions. A tentative calculation of the total mass loss of the comet nucleus within a certain observation period was executed. We calculated the corresponding thickness of the depleted uppermost layer where high-volatile ices completely sublimated. The results obtained in our study strongly support the idea that the observed activity of Comet SW1 requires a permanent demolition of the upper surface layers.     

Correction to: Zeolite containing rocks of kudurs and reasons of geophagy within the territory of Sikhote-Alin Nature Zapovednik,Far East of Russia

This paper establishes a mechanical model of the stress distribution in front of the driving face during coal roadway excavation. Theoretical research shows that the stress state in the plastic zone of the driving face is consistent with the limit equilibrium equation, and the elastic zone is in accordance with the equilibrium equation based on elasticity mechanics. Based on this improved mechanical state solution model, different coal material constitutive hypotheses are used for the analysis. The width of the plastic zone calculated under the brittle-perfectly elastic model can reach 2–5 times the height of the roadway, and the stress concentration coefficient can reach two or more times. 3DEC numerical simulation software was used to simulate the stress distribution of the heading face. The results of the simulation are similar to those of the theoretical analysis. Compared with the elastic-perfectly plastic model, the calculated results of the brittle-perfectly elastic model are more consistent with the numerical simulation results. The heading face coal during roadway excavation shows obvious damage, and the strength characteristics of the coal decrease.