大到暴雪天气模型及数值产品释用预报方法

用欧洲数值预报产品格点资料,对1986年11月-2002年3月河南省出现的87个大到暴雪个例进行对比分析,将大到暴雪划分为3个类型,即高原低槽型、阻高-横槽型和L型,对每个型进行合成平均,建立了大到暴雪的天气学概念模型.为提高样本中大到暴雪的概率,先将样本进行消空处理,然后选取物理意义清晰、天气学意义明确的预报因子,分别建立了全省分片大到暴雪1-7 d预报方法,在业务试应用中取得了较好的预报效果.     

河南夏季高温气候特征及500 hPa环流型

对河南省40个代表站1961～2005年45年夏季大于等于35℃高温日数进行经验正交函数(EOF)展开分析。方差累积贡献率和空间分布特征显示,前3个典型场基本能反映河南夏季高温日数分布的主要特征,前3个模态的累积方差贡献率达85%,据此得出河南夏季大于等于35℃高温日数的时空分布类型:全省一致型、西北—东南差异型和西南—东北差异型。第1模态对应的时间系数序列的变化幅度最大,第2模态对应的时间系数序列的变化幅度比前一个时间序列要小,第1模态的时间系数演变显示,河南夏季高温日数平均呈减少的趋势,且存在2～4年、8～14年的周期变化,目前河南夏季高温日数正处于偏多的时段。应用逐日20:00500hPa ECMWF北半球格点资料,对1991～2005年15年河南典型的大面积持续高温下的环流形势进行普查、分类,分别求各种类型下的环流平均场,从而得到河南省高温的两种环流型,即贝加尔湖高压型和副热带高压型。     

Reservoir operation using grey fuzzy stochastic dynamic programming

This paper presents an optimal regulation programme, grey fuzzy stochastic dynamic programming (GFSDP), for reservoir operation. It is composed of a grey system, fuzzy theory and dynamic programming. The grey system represents data by covering the whole range without loss of generality, and the fuzzy arithmetic takes charge of the rules of reservoir operation. The GFSDP deals with the multipurpose decision‐making problem by fuzzy optimization theorem. The practicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach is tested on the operation of the Shiman reservoir in Taiwan. The current M5 operating rule curves of this reservoir also are evaluated. The simulation results demonstrate that this new approach, in comparison with the M5 rule curves, has superior performance with regard to the total water deficit and number of monthly deficits. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The mean oceanic residence time

In this note the significance of heat of hydration and electronegativity in the study of oceanic residence times of elements is discussed.     

VLF input impedance of a loop antenna embedded in the magnetosphere

An analysis is made to calculate input impedance of a loop antenna for radiation of the VLF whistler mode in the magnetosphere. The magnetosphere is assumed to be represented by a cold, uniform and collisionless magnetoplasma medium. Assuming a uniform current distribution of a circular loop, oriented at an arbitrary angle with respect to the Earth's magnetic field line, several closed-form expressions for the loop impedance have been derived. It is found that the loop input reactance is in substantial agreement with the self-inductance of a loop in free space and that the radiation resistance for a small loop can be as large as ～10 ² Ω. It is also found that a second order quasi-static theory is quite valid for determining the input impedance for small loops radiating VLF whistlers in the magnetosphere.     

反向断阶构造样式与砂质沉积体发育

孤南洼陷是一个复合的半地堑盆地 ,洼陷斜坡发育由断层和断块构成的断阶构造样式 ,其中一种为反断阶。反断阶的发育使得盆地斜坡的沉积地形复杂化 ,因此发育其上的砂质沉积体具有特殊的分布型式 ,包括展布方向、几何形态和水流特征。孤南凸起东南斜坡的反向断阶是由一正断层和倾向相反的斜坡构成。斜坡总体向盆内倾斜 ,但在断层处形成一个次级隆起。沙河街组二段的砂体是在这样的复合地形上沉积并赋存下来。在平面上该砂体一方面沿沉积斜坡方向延伸至断层 ,一方面沿断层走向延伸或越过断层 ,呈不规则的丁字形。砂体在越过孤南洼陷与孤岛凸起的分界断层后在远端发散 ,形成扇体。     

泡塑-地电联用法找金研究

本文介绍了一种新的找金方法－泡塑－地电联用法。该用法将泡沫塑料吸附和地电化学离子提取等两种找金方法融为一体。通过综合研究联用法找金机理,改进提取器材料、结构及仪器设备,并结合研究金的地坏化学规律,使该联用法成为寻找隐伏型金矿的新方法。该联用法既发挥了上述两种方法的优点,又克服了二者的缺点,具有灵敏度高、探测深度大和使用安全可靠的特点。     

地面电场资料在雷电预警技术中的应用

论述利用地面电场仪的探测资料对雷电预警预报的技术方法，以大气电场测量为基础，利用地面电场仪的组网，实现自动、连续、实时监测雷雨云中强雷电活动中心在地面产生的电场强度、极性以及闪电数等，提供监测范围内雷暴强电荷活动中心的发生发展演变特征和整个雷暴过程中雷电活动位置和发展信息。同时结合闪电定位系统的观测，为雷电的监测和预报提供更充分的信息。     

Dynamics of the boreal summer African monsoon in the NSIPP1 atmospheric model

A nine-member ensemble of simulations with a state-of-the-art atmospheric model forced only by the observed record of sea surface temperature (SST) over 1930–2000 is shown to capture the dominant patterns of variability of boreal summer African rainfall. One pattern represents variability along the Gulf of Guinea, between the equator and 10°N. It connects rainfall over Africa to the Atlantic marine Intertropical Convergence Zone, is controlled by local, i.e., eastern equatorial Atlantic, SSTs, and is interannual in time scale. The other represents variability in the semi-arid Sahel, between 10°N and 20°N. It is a continental pattern, capturing the essence of the African summer monsoon, while at the same time displaying high sensitivity to SSTs in the global tropics. A land–atmosphere feedback associated with this pattern translates precipitation anomalies into coherent surface temperature and evaporation anomalies, as highlighted by a simulation where soil moisture is held fixed to climatology. As a consequence of such feedback, it is shown that the recent positive trend in surface temperature is consistent with the ocean-forced negative trend in precipitation, without the need to invoke the direct effect of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. We advance plausible mechanisms by which the balance between land–ocean temperature contrast and moisture availability that defines the monsoon could have been altered in recent decades, resulting in persistent drought. This discussion also serves to illustrate ways in which the monsoon may be perturbed, or may already have been perturbed, by anthropogenic climate change.