Development of python-FALL3D: a modified procedure for modelling volcanic ash dispersal in the Asia-Pacific region

Volcanic ash is the most widespread of all volcanic hazards and has the potential to affect hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of people in the densely populated islands of Indonesia. There is limited information available for this region on the hazard posed by volcanic ash, particularly from volcanoes that have not erupted in recent times. There is a need for computational models capable of accurately predicting volcanic ash dispersal at ground level when coupled with field observations of historical or ongoing eruptive activity. To maximise the effectiveness of such models, they should be readily accessible, easy to use and well tested. Geoscience Australia in collaboration with the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction and the Indonesian Centre for Volcanology and Geohazard Mitigation has collaboratively adapted an existing open-source volcanic ash dispersion model for use in Indonesia. The core model is the widely used, open-source volcanic ash dispersion model FALL3D. A Python wrapper (name here python-FALL3D) has been developed, which modifies the modelling procedure of FALL3D in order to simplify its use for those with little or no background in computational modelling. The modified procedure does not alter the core functionality of FALL3D, but simplifies the modelling procedure by streamlining the installation process, automating both the pre-processing of input meteorological datasets and configuring and executing each utility program in a single-step process. An application example was presented using python-FALL3D for an active volcano in West Java, Indonesia. The example showed that communities located on the western side of Gunung Gede are always susceptible to volcanic ash ground loading regardless of the seasonal variations in wind conditions, whereas communities on the eastern side of Gunung Gede have a marked increase in susceptibility to ground loading during rainy season conditions when prevailing winds include a strong easterly component.     

A Temporal Variant‐Invariant Validation Approach for Agent‐based Models of Landscape Dynamics

Agent‐based modeling provides a means for addressing the way human and natural systems interact to change landscapes over time. Until recently, evaluation of simulation models has focused on map comparison techniques that evaluate the degree to which predictions match real‐world observations. However, methods that change the focus of evaluation from patterns to processes have begun to surface; that is, rather than asking if a model simulates a correct pattern, models are evaluated on their ability to simulate a process of interest. We build on an existing agent‐based modeling validation method in order to present a temporal variant‐invariant analysis (TVIA). The enhanced method, which focuses on analyzing the uncertainty in simulation results, examines the degree to which outcomes from multiple model runs match some reference to how land use parcels make the transition from one land use class to another over time. We apply TVIA to results from an agent‐based model that simulates the relationships between landowner decisions and wildfire risk in the wildland‐urban interface of the southern Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. The TVIA approach demonstrates a novel ability to examine uncertainty across time to provide an understanding of how the model emulates the system of interest.     

Investigating dissolution of mechanically activated olivine for carbonation purposes

Mineral carbonation is one of several alternatives for CO₂ sequestration and storage. The reaction rates of appropriate minerals with CO₂, for instance olivine and serpentine with vast resources, are relatively slow in a CO₂ sequestration context and the rates have to be increased to make mineral carbonation a good storage alternative. Increasing the dissolution rate of olivine has been the focus of this paper. Olivine was milled with very high energy intensity using a laboratory planetary mill to investigate the effect of mechanical activation on the Mg extraction potential of olivine in 0.01 M HCl solution at room temperature and pressure. Approximately 30–40% of each sample was dissolved and water samples were taken at the end of each experiment. The pH change was used to calculate time series of the Mg concentrations, which also were compared to the final Mg concentrations in the water samples. Percentage dissolved and the specific reaction rates were estimated from the Mg concentration time series. The measured particle size distributions could not explain the rate constants found, but the specific surface area gave a good trend versus dissolution for samples milled wet and the samples milled with a small addition of water. The samples milled dry had the lowest measured specific surface areas (<4 m²/g), but had the highest rate constants. The crystallinity calculated from X-ray diffractograms, was the material parameter with the best fit for the observed differences in the rate constants. Geochemical modelling of mechanically activated materials indicated that factors describing the changes in the material properties related to the activation must be included. The mechanically activated samples in general reacted faster than predicted by the theoretical models. Mechanical activation as a pre-treatment method was found to enhance the initial specific reaction rates by approximately three orders of magnitude for a sample milled dry for 60 min in a planetary mono mill compared to an unactivated sample. Wet milling in the planetary mill did not produce samples with the same maximum reaction rate as dry milling, but wet milling in general might be easier to implement into a wet carbonation process. Mechanical activation in a planetary mill is likely to consume too much energy for CO₂ sequestration purposes, but the increase in obtained olivine rate constants illustrates a potential for using milling as a pre-treatment method.     

Observations of ionospheric flows and particle precipitation following a Sudden Commencement

On May 4, 1998, at 0227 UT an interplanetary shock crossed the WIND spacecraft, and half an hour later a Sudden Commencement occurred. Coinciding with the Sudden Commencement a rapid intensification of the flux of particle precipitation into the ionosphere was observed. Evidence is presented that the ionospheric electric fields were influenced by the associated dynamic variations of the ionospheric conductivities. Following the initial phase the ionospheric flow speeds increased rapidly over the next 20 min to more than 2000 m/s, in agreement with an increased effective coupling of the solar wind energy to the magnetosphere following the interplanetary shock that caused the Sudden Commencement. These strong flows were meandering in latitude, a type of plasma flow modulation that has been reported before to occur during Omega band events: a string of alternating field-aligned currents propagating eastward. The riometer absorption was found to be at a minimum in regions associated with outward directed field aligned currents. The riometer absorption regions (the regions of particle precipitation) were drifting with E × B drift speed of the ionospheric electrons.     

Automated rainfall simulator for variable rainfall on urban green areas

Rainfall simulators can enhance our understanding of the hydrologic processes affecting the total runoff to urban drainage systems. This knowledge can be used to improve urban drainage designs. In this study, a rainfall simulator is developed to simulate rainfall on urban green surfaces. The rainfall simulator is controlled by a microcomputer programmed to replicate the temporal variations in rainfall intensity of both historical and synthetic rainfall events with constant rainfall intensity on an area of 1 m². The performance of the rainfall simulator is tested under laboratory conditions with regard to spatial uniformity of the rainfall, the kinetic energy of the raindrops, and the ability to replicate historical and synthetic rainfall events with temporally varying intensity. The rainfall simulator is applied in the field to evaluate its functionality under field conditions and the influence of wind on simulated rainfall. Finally, a field study is carried out on the relationship between runoff, soil volumetric water content, and surface slope. Performance and field tests show that the simulated rainfall has a uniform spatial distribution, whereas the kinetic energy of the raindrops is slightly higher than that of other comparable rainfall simulators. The rainfall simulator performs best in low wind speed conditions. The simulator performs well in replicating historical and synthetic rainfall events by matching both intensity variations and accumulated rainfall depth. The field study shows good correlation between rainfall, runoff, infiltration, soil water content, and surface slope.     

Shocked quartz grains in the early Cambrian Vakkejokk Breccia,Sweden—Evidence of a marine impact

Here we present a study of the abundance and orientation of planar deformation features (PDFs) in the Vakkejokk Breccia, a proposed lower Cambrian impact ejecta layer in the North‐Swedish Caledonides. The presence of PDFs is widely accepted as evidence for shock metamorphism associated with cosmic impact events and their presence confirms that the Vakkejokk Breccia is indeed the result of an impact. The breccia has previously been divided into four lithological subunits (from bottom to top), viz. lower polymict breccia (LPB), graded polymict breccia (GPB), top sandstone (TS), and top conglomerate (TC). Here we show that the LPB contains no shock metamorphic features, indicating that the material derives from just outside of the crater and represents low‐shock semi‐autochthonous bombarded strata. In the overlying, more fine‐grained GPB and TS, quartz grains with PDFs are relatively abundant (2–5% of the grain population), and with higher shock levels in the upper parts, suggesting that they have formed by reworking of more distal ejecta by resurge of water toward the crater in a marine setting. The absence of shocked quartz grains in the TC indicates that this unit represents later slumps associated with weathering and erosion of the protruding crater rim. Sparse shocked quartz grains (<0.2%) were also found in sandstone beds occurring at the same stratigraphic level as the Vakkejokk Breccia 15–20 km from the inferred crater site. It is currently unresolved whether the sandstone at these distal sites is related to the impact or just contains rare reworked quartz grains with PDFs.     

Segregation of Residents with Tertiary Education in Sweden from 1990 to 2012

There has been a dramatic increase in the number of people with tertiary education in Sweden, partly due to the governmental policy of making higher education more geographically available. In this study, we analyze how educational expansion and the governmental policy of offering tertiary education outside of old academic centers affected segregation patterns in 2012 compared to 1990. We analyze the spatial distribution of those with tertiary education using neighborhoods based on k-nearest neighbors and measure the segregation of residents with tertiary education using a multiscalar method. Additionally, we compare local labor market regions that include old, new, or no institutions of higher education. The results show an overall higher share of tertiary-educated people age twenty-five to sixty-four in all parts of Sweden in 2012 and a decrease in the levels of population-weighted mean segregation at all geographical scales. Segregation was mostly introduced on the city or city district level (for larger cities) and regional level rather than the neighborhood level. Segregation also decreased in all three types of labor market regions. The segregation patterns remained similar between 2012 and 1990, however, and a higher share of the population lived in segregated areas in 2012 compared to that in 1990.     

Geological evolution,regional perspectives and hydrocarbon potential of the northwest Phu Khanh Basin,offshore Central Vietnam

Seismic stratigraphic and structural analyses of the northwest Phu Khanh Basin, offshore Central Vietnam, based on 2-D seismic data, indicate that the initial rifting began during the latest Cretaceous? or Palaeogene controlled by left-lateral transtension along the East Vietnam Boundary Fault Zone (EVBFZ) and northwest–southeast directed extension east of the EVBFZ. Rifting stopped due to transpression during middle Oligocene times but resumed by left-lateral transtension during the Late Oligocene. Thick sequences of lacustrine and alluvial sediments were deposited during the Palaeogene rift periods. The Late Oligocene rifting ended due to inversion, triggered by right-lateral wrenching near the Palaeogene–Neogene boundary. Following the onset of this inversion regional uplift and volcanism took place in the southern half of the study area and contemporaneous subsidence and transgression took place farther north, leading to widespread carbonate deposition. As the right-lateral wrenching decreased during the early Neogene, thermal subsidence and siliciclastic sedimentation became dominant, resulting in the buildup and southward propagation of the shelf slope. Sediment accumulation and subsidence rates increased after the Middle Miocene times due to eastward tilting of Central Vietnam and the adjacent offshore area.