Implications of next generation attenuation ground motion prediction equations for site coefficients used in earthquake resistant design

Proposals are developed to update Tables 11.4‐1 and 11.4‐2 of Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures published as American Society of Civil Engineers Structural Engineering Institute standard 7‐10 (ASCE/SEI 7–10). The updates are mean next generation attenuation (NGA) site coefficients inferred directly from the four NGA ground motion prediction equations used to derive the maximum considered earthquake response maps adopted in ASCE/SEI 7–10. Proposals include the recommendation to use straight‐line interpolation to infer site coefficients at intermediate values of (average shear velocity to 30‐m depth). The NGA coefficients are shown to agree well with adopted site coefficients at low levels of input motion (0.1 g) and those observed from the Loma Prieta earthquake. For higher levels of input motion, the majority of the adopted values are within the 95% epistemic‐uncertainty limits implied by the NGA estimates with the exceptions being the mid‐period site coefficient, F_v, for site class D and the short‐period coefficient, F_a, for site class C, both of which are slightly less than the corresponding 95% limit. The NGA data base shows that the median value of 913 m/s for site class B is more typical than 760 m/s as a value to characterize firm to hard rock sites as the uniform ground condition for future maximum considered earthquake response ground motion estimates. Future updates of NGA ground motion prediction equations can be incorporated easily into future adjustments of adopted site coefficients using procedures presented herein. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Effects of glacial retreat on proglacial streams and riparian zones in the Coast and North Cascade Mountains

Proglacial stream development was studied in coastal British Columbia and Washington, focusing on reaches exposed by post‐Little Ice Age (LIA) glacier retreat, to address three principal questions: (i) Does the legacy of LIA glaciation influence the evolution of channel morphology? (ii) How long does it take for riparian forest to establish following glacier retreat? (iii) Can newly exposed proglacial streams provide suitable fish habitat? Channel morphologies were identified by field surveys of 69 reaches in 10 catchments. Riparian forest development and potential fish habitat were characterized in those reaches and an additional 22 catchments using GIS analysis. The landscape template imposed by the Quaternary glaciation appears to override most of the modern effects of the LIA in controlling channel‐reach morphology. Binary logistic regression analysis identified elevation and time since deglaciation as primary controls on the presence of riparian forest. At higher elevations, establishment of morphologically functional riparian forest could take several centuries, prolonged by channel instability associated with post‐LIA sediment inputs. Of the recently deglaciated streams included in this analysis, the majority (86%) of the total length was of suitable gradient for fish and could be accessed either by downstream populations or from adjacent lakes. Predicted maximum weekly average stream temperature (MWAT) indicated that the post‐LIA study streams were thermally suitable for cold‐water fish. A future scenario of glacier loss would cause a 14% decline in accessible cold‐water thermal habitat in post‐LIA streams. Decreased summer flows due to glacier retreat could further limit usable habitat by reducing stream depths and wetted perimeters. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shoreline features of Titan's Ontario Lacus from Cassini/VIMS observations

We analyze observations of Titan's south polar lake Ontario Lacus obtained by Cassini's Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer during the 38th flyby of Titan (T38; 2007 December 5). These near-closest-approach observations have the highest signal-to-noise, the finest spatial resolution, and the least atmospheric influence of any near-infrared lake observation to date. We use the large, spatially flat, and low-albedo interior of Ontario Lacus as a calibration target allowing us to derive an analytical atmospheric correction for emission angle. The dark lake interior is surrounded by two separate annuli that follow the lake interior's contours. The inner annulus is uniformly dark, but not so much as the interior lake, and is generally 5-10 kilometers wide at the lake's southeastern margin. We propose that it represents wet lakebed sediments exposed by either tidal sloshing of the lake or seasonal methane loss leading to lower lake-volume. The exterior annulus is bright and shows a spectrum consistent with a relatively low water-ice content relative to the rest of Titan. It may represent fine-grained condensate deposits from a past era of higher lake level. Together, the annuli seem to indicate that the lake level for Ontario Lacus has changed over time. This hypothesis can be tested with observations scheduled for future Titan flybys.     

Ethane ices in the outer Solar System: Spectroscopy and chemistry

We report recent experiments on ethane ices made at temperatures applicable to the outer Solar System. New near- and mid-infrared data for crystalline and amorphous ethane, including new spectra for a seldom-studied solid phase that exists at 35-55 K, are presented along with radiation-chemical experiments showing the formation of more-complex hydrocarbons.     

Seasonal surface ocean circulation and dynamics in the Philippine Archipelago region during 2004–2008

The dynamics of the seasonal surface circulation in the Philippine Archipelago (117°E–128°E, 0°N–14°N) are investigated using a high-resolution configuration of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for the period of January 2004–March 2008. Three experiments were performed to estimate the relative importance of local, remote and tidal forcing. On the annual mean, the circulation in the Sulu Sea shows inflow from the South China Sea at the Mindoro and Balabac Straits, outflow into the Sulawesi Sea at the Sibutu Passage, and cyclonic circulation in the southern basin. A strong jet with a maximum speed exceeding 100 cm s⁻¹ forms in the northeast Sulu Sea where currents from the Mindoro and Tablas Straits converge. Within the Archipelago, strong westward currents in the Bohol Sea carry the surface water of the western Pacific (WP) from the Surigao Strait into the Sulu Sea via the Dipolog Strait. In the Sibuyan Sea, currents flow westward, which carry the surface water from the WP near the San Bernardino Strait into the Sulu Sea via the Tablas Strait.These surface currents exhibit strong variations or reversals from winter to summer. The cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation during winter (summer) in the Sulu Sea and seasonally reversing currents within the Archipelago region during the peak of the winter (summer) monsoon result mainly from local wind forcing, while remote forcing dominates the current variations at the Mindoro Strait, western Sulu Sea and Sibutu passage before the monsoons reach their peaks. The temporal variations (with the mean removed), also referred to as anomalies, of volume transports in the upper 40 m at eight major Straits are caused predominantly by remote forcing, although local forcing can be large during sometime of a year. For example, at the Mindoro Strait, the correlation between the time series of transport anomalies due to total forcing (local, remote and tides) and that due only to the remote forcing is 0.81 above 95% significance, comparing to the correlation of 0.64 between the total and local forcing. Similarly, at the Sibutu Passage, the correlation is 0.96 for total versus remote effects, comparing to 0.53 for total versus local forcing. The standard deviations of transports from the total, remote and local effects are 0.59 Sv, 0.50 Sv, and 0.36 Sv, respectively, at the Mindoro Strait; and 1.21 Sv, 1.13 Sv, and 0.59 Sv at the Sibutu Passage. Nonlinear rectification of tides reduces the mean westward transports at the Surigao, San Bernardino and Dipolog Straits, and it also has non-negligible influence on the seasonal circulation in the Sulu Sea.     

Application of 4D-Variational data assimilation to the California Current System

The Incremental Strong constraint 4D-Variational (IS4DVAR) data assimilation system of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) is used to study the controllability of a realistic, high resolution configuration of the California Current System. The configuration and results of assimilating both satellite-derived surface observations along with in situ data are presented. Results show consequent improvements in many characteristics of the model circulation, and some of the strengths of the adjoint method for data assimilation are highlighted. General issues of the sensitivity of the results to the configuration of ROMS-IS4DVAR are also discussed.     

Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with larger economic value for the state (apples, potatoes, and wheat). To evaluate crop performance, a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) was utilized using historical and future climate sequences. Crops were assumed to receive adequate water (irrigated crops), nutrients, and control of weeds, pests and diseases. Results project that the impact of climate change on eastern Washington agriculture will be generally mild in the short term (i.e., next two decades), but increasingly detrimental with time (potential yield losses reaching 25% for some crops by the end of the century). However, CO₂ elevation is expected to provide significant mitigation, and in fact result in yield gains for some crops. The combination of increased CO₂ and adaptive management may result in yield benefits for all crops. One limitation of the study is that water supply was assumed sufficient for irrigated crops, but other studies suggest that it may decrease in many locations due to climate change.     

Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 ad

We use a physically plausible four parameter linear response equation to relate 2,000 years of global temperatures and sea level. We estimate likelihood distributions of equation parameters using Monte Carlo inversion, which then allows visualization of past and future sea level scenarios. The model has good predictive power when calibrated on the pre-1990 period and validated against the high rates of sea level rise from the satellite altimetry. Future sea level is projected from intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) temperature scenarios and past sea level from established multi-proxy reconstructions assuming that the established relationship between temperature and sea level holds from 200 to 2100 ad. Over the last 2,000 years minimum sea level (−19 to −26 cm) occurred around 1730 ad, maximum sea level (12–21 cm) around 1150 ad. Sea level 2090–2099 is projected to be 0.9 to 1.3 m for the A1B scenario, with low probability of the rise being within IPCC confidence limits.