Integrating seismic attributes in the accurate modeling of geological structures and determining the storage of the gas reservoir in Gorgan Plain (North of Iran)

Three dimensional seismic operation of Gorgan Plain was studied around a well, which is situated in North of Iran following the hitting of a thin overpressure gas layer (thickness of 9.6 m), with the purpose of the accurate modeling of geological structures and determining the approximate gas storages. The geological structures of the reservoir were modeled using the seismic attributes (coherence, instantaneous amplitude and spectral decomposition (FFT)). The obtained results clearly demonstrated the shape and volume of the existing structural traps in the studied area. In order to estimate the thickness of gas layer in the 3D seismic volume and determining the gas storage, the thickness changes based on the seismic amplitudes were used because its thickness was less than the critical resolution thickness for this layer. However, due to its low thickness, the lack of indicator peak in seismic sections and strong faults of area, it was difficult to pursue this layer in the seismic volume and map its exact amplitude. Considering this issue, a new method with integrating of seismic attributes was recommended. First, the instantaneous amplitude attribute of the thin reservoir layer reflector in computed synthetic seismogram were fabricated and then the frequency regarding the highest amount (dominant frequency) was chosen by Fourier Transform. Finally, spectral decomposition (FFT) with the resulting frequency was gained over the cross-section of the layer's instantaneous amplitude attribute in the 3D seismic volume choosing a proper time window. In such a situation, an increase of its thickness was seen as its amplitude increase and the minimum gas storage of this reservoir was calculated using the area of the restricted part of high thickness (over 9.6 m).     

Earthquake-induced landslide prediction using back-propagation type artificial neural network: case study in northern Iran

Natural Hazards - Landslides can cause extensive damage, particularly those triggered by earthquakes. The current study used back propagation of an artificial neural network (ANN) to conduct risk...     

Effect of Particles Shape on the Hydraulic Conductivity of Stokesian Flow in Granular Materials

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - The hydraulic conductivity of a granular porous medium depends on parameters such as the porosity, particles shape and fluid viscosity. Although other...     

Synoptic analysis of dust storms in the Middle East

Dust storm in the Middle East and south-west Asia is a natural hazard and the Tigris-Euphrates alluvial plain has been recognized as the main dust source in this area. In this study, more than 60 dust storms that occurred during the period 2003–2011 are investigated on the basis of MODIS satellite images, and 12 of the dust storms are selected for synoptic analysis using the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Data. The potential dust sources in the Middle East and south-west Asian region (20°E to 80°E, 5°N to 50°N) are analyzed and used in the synoptic analysis. Dust storms in the region can be grouped into two main categories, i.e., the Shamal dust storms and the frontal dust storms. Synoptic systems, associated with the two categories, are distinguished and the frequency of the patterns is identified. For 68% of the Shamal dust storms, a high pressure system is situated between 0°E to 30°E and 27°N to 45°N, and a low pressure system between 50°E to 70°E and 23°N to 43°N. For 86% of the frontal dust storms, a high is located between 51°E to 67°E and 18°N to 33°N and a low between 28°E to 48°E and 32°N to 43°N. Three main patterns for Shamal dust storms are identified, which represent about 60% of the Shamal dust storms. This analysis confirms that the Shamal is related to the anticyclones located over northern Africa to Eastern Europe and the monsoon trough over Iraq, southern Iran, Pakistan and the Indian Subcontinent. The analysis also shows that the main dust sink for the frontal dust storms in Tigris and Euphrates alluvial plain extends from center of Iraq to west and center of Iran and, in most severe cases, to northern Iran and the southern coast of the Caspian Sea.     

An investigation of trends in precipitation volume for the last three decades in different regions of Fars province, Iran

Under condition of climate changes as global warming, monitoring and detecting trend of precipitation volume is essential and will be useful for agricultural sections. Considering the fact that there were not enough research related to precipitation volume, this study aimed to determine trends in precipitation volume, monthly and annually in different regions of Fars province for the last three decades (33?years period; 1978–2010). Fars province is located in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, and it plays an important role in agricultural production. Inverse distance weighting interpolation method was used to provide precipitation data for all regions. To analyze the trends of precipitation volume, Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and 10-year moving average low-pass filter (within time series) were used. The negative trends were identified by the Sen’s slope estimator as well as Mann–Kendall test. However, all the trends were insignificant at the surveyed confidence level (95%). With regards to the application of 10-year moving average low-pass filter, a considerable decreasing trend was observed after around year 1994. Since one of the most important restrictions in agricultural development of the Fars province is lack of sufficient water resources, any changes onward to lack of sufficient precipitation impose impressive pressure and stress on valuable resources and subsequently agricultural production.     

Numerical Simulation of Solute Transport in Saturated Porous Media with Bounded Domains

This work presents the first attempt to develop unconditionally stable, implicit finite difference solutions of one-sided spatial fractional advection-dispersion equation (s-FADE) by imposing the nonzero Dirichlet boundary condition (ND BC) or the nonzero fractional Robin boundary condition (NFR BC) at inlet boundary and the zero fractional Neumann boundary condition (ZFN BC) at outlet boundary. The results of the numerical studies performed using artificial solute transport parameters demonstrated that the numerical solution with the NFR BC as the inlet boundary produced much more realistic concentration values. The numerical solution with the NFR BC at the inlet boundary was capable of correctly describing the Fickian and non-Fickian behaviors of the solute transport at different α values, and it had the relatively same accuracy at different numbers of the spatial nodes. Also, the practical application of the numerical solution with the NFR BC as the inlet boundary was investigated by conducting tracer experiments in homogeneous and heterogeneous soil columns. According to the obtained results, this numerical solution described well solute transport in the homogenous and heterogeneous soils. The α values of the homogeneous and heterogeneous soils were obtained in the ranges of 1.849–1.999 and 1.248–1.570, respectively, which were in excellent agreement with the physical properties of the soils. In a nutshell, the numerical solution of the s-FADE with the NFR BC as the inlet boundary can be successfully applied to describe the solute transport in the homogeneous and heterogeneous soils with bounded spatial domains.     

Spatial downscaling of climate variables using three statistical methods in Central Iran

Spatial downscaling methods are widely used for the production of bioclimatic variables(e.g. temperature and precipitation) in studies related to species ecological niche and drainage basin management and planning. This study applied three different statistical methods, i.e. the moving window regression(MWR), nonparametric multiplicative regression(NPMR), and generalized linear model(GLM), to downscale the annual mean temperature(Bio1) and annual precipitation(Bio12) in central Iran from coarse scale(1 km × 1 km) to fine scale(250 m ×250 m). Elevation, aspect, distance from sea and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) were used as covariates to create downscaled bioclimatic variables. Model assessment was performed by comparing model outcomes with observational data from weather stations. Coefficients of determination(R2), bias, and root-mean-square error(RMSE) were used to evaluate models and covariates. The elevation could effectively justify the changes in bioclimatic factors related to temperature and precipitation. Allthree models could downscale the mean annual temperature data with similar R2, RMSE, and bias values. The MWR had the best performance and highest accuracy in downscaling annual precipitation(R2=0.70; RMSE=123.44). In general, the two nonparametric models, i.e. MWR and NPMR, can be reliably used for the downscaling of bioclimatic variables which have wide applications in species distribution modeling.     

Measuring the effect of an ongoing urbanization process on biodiversity conservation suitability index: integrating scenario-based urban growth modelling with Conservation Assessment and Prioritization System (CAPS)

The present study adopts an integrative modelling methodology, which combines the strengths of the SLEUTH model and the Conservation Assessment and Prioritization System (CAPS) method. By developing a scenario-based geographic information system simulation environment for Hashtpar City, Iran, the manageability of the landscape under each urban growth scenario is analysed. In addition, the CAPS approach was used for biodiversity conservation suitability mapping. The SLEUTH model was implemented to generate predictive urban layers of the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 for each scenario (dynamic factors for conservation suitability mapping). Accordingly, conservation suitability surface of the area is updated for each time point and under each urban development storyline. Two-way analysis of variance and Duncan’s new multiple range tests were employed to compare the functionality of the three scenarios. Based on results, the managed urban growth scenario depicted better results for manageability of the landscape and less negative impact on conservation suitability values.     

A new integration scheme for application to seismic hybrid simulation

Hybrid simulation is a powerful test method for evaluating the seismic performance of structural systems. This method makes it feasible that only critical components of a structure be experimentally tested. This paper presents a newly proposed integration algorithm for seismic hybrid simulation which is aimed to extend its capabilities to a wide range of systems where existing methods encounter some limitations. In the proposed method, which is termed the variable time step (VTS) integration method, an implicit scheme is employed for hybrid simulation by eliminating the iterative phase on experimental element, the phase which is necessary in regular implicit applications. In order to study the effectiveness of the VTS method, a series of numerical investigations are conducted which show the successfulness of the VTS method in obtaining accurate, stable and converged responses. Then, in a comparative approach, the improved accuracy of the VTS method over commonly used integration methods is demonstrated. The stability of the VTS method is also studied and the results show that it provides conditional stability; however, its stability limit is well beyond the accuracy limit. The effect of time delay on the VTS method results is also investigated and it is shown that the VTS method is quite successful in handling this experimental error.