A Temporal Variant‐Invariant Validation Approach for Agent‐based Models of Landscape Dynamics

Agent‐based modeling provides a means for addressing the way human and natural systems interact to change landscapes over time. Until recently, evaluation of simulation models has focused on map comparison techniques that evaluate the degree to which predictions match real‐world observations. However, methods that change the focus of evaluation from patterns to processes have begun to surface; that is, rather than asking if a model simulates a correct pattern, models are evaluated on their ability to simulate a process of interest. We build on an existing agent‐based modeling validation method in order to present a temporal variant‐invariant analysis (TVIA). The enhanced method, which focuses on analyzing the uncertainty in simulation results, examines the degree to which outcomes from multiple model runs match some reference to how land use parcels make the transition from one land use class to another over time. We apply TVIA to results from an agent‐based model that simulates the relationships between landowner decisions and wildfire risk in the wildland‐urban interface of the southern Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. The TVIA approach demonstrates a novel ability to examine uncertainty across time to provide an understanding of how the model emulates the system of interest.     

On Rates and Acceleration Trends of Global Glacier Mass Changes

Worldwide glacier mass changes are considered to represent natural key variables within global climate-related monitoring programmes, especially with respect to strategies concerning early detection of enhanced greenhouse effects on climate. This is due to the fact that glacier mass changes provide important quantitative information on rates of change, acceleration tendencies and pre-industrial variability relating to energy exchange at the earth/athmosphere interface. During the coming decades, excess radiation income and sensible heat (a few watts per square metre) as calculated with numerical climate models are both estimated to increase by a factor of about two to four as compared to the mean of the 20th century. The rate of average annual mass loss (a few decimetres per year) measured today on mountain glaciers in various parts of the world now appears to accelerate accordingly, even though detailed interpretation of the complex processes involved remains difficult. Within the framework of secular glacier retreat and Holocene glacier fluctuations, similar rates of change and acceleration must have taken place before, i.e. during times of weak anthropogenic forcing. However, the anthropogenic influences on the atmosphere could now and for the first time represent a major contributing factor to the observed glacier shrinkage at a global scale. Problems with such assessments mainly concern aspects of statistical averaging, regional climate variability, strong differences in glacier sensitivity and relations between mass balance and cumulative glacier length change over decadal to secular time scales. Considerable progress has recently been achieved in these fields of research.     

The effect of flood intermittency on bifurcations in fluviodeltaic systems: Experiment and theory

The dimensions and organization of deltaic islands and channels dictate delta morphology. This study presents experimental results modelling deposition at a river mouth and flow bifurcation around delta islands. Mouth bar formation and channel bifurcation is achieved in a laboratory setting by alternating input of suspended load transport and bedload transport. These two modes of transport produce two characteristic deposits with different advection lengths. Suspended load transport creates a steep deposit far from the inlet, while bedload creates a low angle, levéed deposit near the inlet. This study found that flow bifurcations occur where the proximal and distal deposits encroach on one another; and determined that there is a relationship between the frequency of suspended load transport and the length to channel bifurcation. Frequent flooding causes shorter length to bifurcations, whereas infrequent flooding causes greater length to bifurcations. This work overturns the hitherto understood mechanism of bifurcation location as a function of only high-transport conditions. Instead, the interactions between the sediment transport and deposition from normal flow and large-scale flooding events dictate delta island morphology.     

Modeling cave cross-section evolution including sediment transport and paragenesis

Deposits within caves are often used to interpret past landscape evolution and climate conditions. However, cave passage shapes also preserve information about past conditions. Despite the usefulness of passage shape, no previous models simulate cave cross-section evolution in a realistic manner. Here we develop a model for evolving cave passage cross-sections using a shear stress estimation algorithm and a shear stress erosion rule. Our model qualitatively duplicates observed cave passage shapes so long as erosion rates vary with shear stress, as in the case of transport limited dissolution or mechanical erosion. This result provides further evidence that erosion rates within caves are not typically limited by surface reaction rates, even though current speleogenesis models predict surface-rate limitation under most turbulent flow conditions. By adding sediment transport and alluviation to the model we successfully simulate paragenetic channels. Simulations duplicate the hypothesized dynamics of paragenesis, whereby: 1) the cross-section of a phreatic passage grows until shear stress is sufficiently reduced that alluviation occurs, 2) the floor of the passage becomes armored and erosion continues on the ceiling and walls, 3) negative feedback produces an equilibrium cross-sectional area such that shear stress is sufficient to transport incoming sediment. We derive an approximate scaling relationship that indicates that equilibrium paragenetic channel width scales with the square root of discharge, and weakly with the inverse of sediment supply. Simulations confirm this relationship and show that erosion mechanism, sediment size, and roughness are secondary controls. The inverse scaling of width with sediment supply in paragenetic channels contrasts with surface bedrock channels, which respond to larger sediment supplies by widening. Our model provides a first step in simulating cave cross-section evolution and points to the need for a better understanding of the dominant erosion mechanisms in soluble bedrock channels. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magnetic crustal character in Central Ireland

The simplest magnetic model for the upper 20 km of crust in central Ireland is of two layers. A thin, weakly magnetic upper layer carrying a number of magnetic bodies that can be related to surface geology overlies a magnetic crustal zone whose gross magnetization increases towards the north. The deeper trace of the lapetus Suture in central Ireland forms the boundary between a more magnetic northern crustal area and a less magnetic southern area. A pre-Carboniferous major dextral offset of this suture boundary occurs in the Limerick area. The suture is traced beneath the Dingle peninsula in the far south-west of Ireland. In east-central Ireland, between the Iapetus Suture and Southern Upland Line, the crust contains a large, south-dipping magnetic body with no surface expression, which produces the Virginia magnetic anomaly. The development of magnetic bodies — in particular, volcanic rocks of Carboniferous age — has been controlled by regional stress patterns. The major volcanic centre at Limerick lies at the intersection of two major Caledonian block fault systems just to the north of the surface trace of the Hercynian Front.     

Insights into Holocene relative sea-level changes in the southern North Sea using an improved microfauna-based transfer function

In light of global warming and rising relative sea level (RSL), detailed reconstructions of RSL histories and their controlling processes are essential in order to manage coastal-protection challenges. This study contributes to unravelling Holocene RSL change on the East Frisian North Sea coast in high resolution and with a new approach for the German Bight. For the first time, a transfer function (vertical error: 29.7 cm ? ~11% of the mean tidal range) for RSL change based on a combined training set of benthic foraminifers and ostracods from the back-barrier tidal basin of Spiekeroog is applied to the Holocene record of the back-barrier tidal basin of Norderney. The resulting RSL curve for the Norderney tidal basin is corrected for decompaction and shows a deceleration in RSL rise between 6000 and 5000 cal bp. The smallest possible error envelope (~1 m) results from the good suitability of salt-marsh layers between 5000 and 4000 cal bp. The RSL curve provides an approach towards the closure of the common data gap of peat-based curves for the southern North Sea related to a lack of basal peats in the youngest age range, and verifies regional differences in glacial isostatic adjustment.