Groundwater-level Anomalies Associated with a Hypothetical Preslip Prior to the Anticipated Tokai Earthquake: Detectability Using the Groundwater Observation Network of the Geological Survey of Japan,AIST

We infer the groundwater-level anomalies associated with a hypothetical preslip prior to the anticipated M 8 Tokai earthquake, and evaluate the detectability of the anomalies using data from seven groundwater wells. We evaluate the detectability of the anomalies under the following assumptions: (1) an Mw 5.5–6.5 aseismic preslip event occurs at the plate boundary in and around the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake; (2) the total amount of the strain step at each observation associated with the preslip can be calculated by tensile and shear faulting based on the dislocation model; (3) a normalized strain history associated with the preslip is defined from the results of numerical simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction laws; and (4) the groundwater-level anomaly prior to the earthquake is proportional to the estimated history of the strain change associated with the preslip. We investigate the detection time of the anomaly at seven wells given an Mw 5.5, 6.0, or 6.5 aseismic preslip at one of the 272 grid points in and around the area of the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake. As a result, over the time interval between 1 and 48 hours prior to the hypothetical Tokai earthquake, we are able to detect at each of the seven wells a hypothetical Mw 6.5 preslip at 10–86 of the 272 grid points, an Mw 6 preslip at 0–19 grid points, and an Mw 5.5 preslip at 0–5 grid points.     

Strain and tilt changes measured during a water injection experiment at the Nojima Fault zone, Japan

Abstract In order to make geophysical and geological investigations of the Nojima Fault on Awaji Island, Japan, three boreholes measuring 1800 m, 800 m and 500 m deep were drilled into the fault zone. The fault is one of the seismic source faults of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake of M 7.2. A new multicomponent borehole instrument was installed at the bottom of the 800 m borehole and continuous observations of crustal strain and tilt have been made using this instrument since May 1996. A high-pressure water injection experiment within the 1800 m borehole was done in February and March 1997 to study the geophysical response, behavior, permeability, and other aspects of the fault zone. The injection site was located approximately 140 m horizontally and 800 m vertically from the instrument. Associated with the water injection, contraction of approximately 0.7 × 10⁻⁷ str (almost parallel to the fault) and tilt of approximately 1 × 10^-7 rad in the sense of upheaval toward the injection site were observed. In addition to these controlled experiments, the strainmeter and tiltmeter also recorded daily variations. We interpret strain and tilt changes to be related to groundwater discharge and increased ultra-micro seismicity induced by the injected water.     

A Model for the Quiescent Phase of the Recurrent Nova U Scorpii

A theoretical light curve is constructed for the quiescent phase of the recurrent nova U Scorpii in order to resolve the existing distance discrepancy between the outbursts (d approximately 6 kpc) and the quiescences (d approximately 14 kpc). Our U Sco model consists of a very massive white dwarf (WD), an accretion disk (ACDK) with a flaring-up rim, and a lobe-filling, slightly evolved, main-sequence star (MS). The model properly includes an accretion luminosity of the WD, a viscous luminosity of the ACDK, and a reflection effect of the MS and the ACDK irradiated by the WD photosphere. The B light curve is well reproduced by a model of 1.37 M middle dot in circle WD + 1.5 M middle dot in circle MS (0.8-2.0 M middle dot in circle MS is acceptable) with an ACDK having a flaring-up rim and the inclination angle of the orbit i approximately 80&j0;. The calculated color is rather blue (B-V approximately 0.0) for a suggested mass accretion rate of 2.5x10-7 M middle dot in circle yr-1, thus indicating a large color excess of E(B-V) approximately 0.56 with the observational color of B-V=0.56 in quiescence. Such a large color excess corresponds to an absorption of AV approximately 1.8 and AB approximately 2.3, which reduces the distance to 6-8 kpc. This is in good agreement with the distance estimation of 4-6 kpc for the latest outburst. Such a large intrinsic absorption is very consistent with the recently detected period change of U Sco, which is indicating a mass outflow of approximately 3x10-7 M middle dot in circle yr-1 through the outer Lagrangian points in quiescence.     

Methane-induced dolomite “chimneys” on the Kuroshima Knoll, Ryukyu islands, Japan

The Kuroshima Knoll is about 26 km south of Ishigaki Island in the southern part of the Ryukyu Arc. The area is considered to be the source area of “The 1771 Yaeyama Earthquake Tsunami”, which was due to the submarine landslide caused by an earthquake. It has been cleared from some investigations using “Dolphin 3K” and “Shinkai 2000” that there are large-scale dead Calyptogena colonies, many gravels of fallen dolomite chimneys and carbonates on the top of the Knoll [Matsumoto, T., Uechi, C., Kimura, M., 1997; Machiyama, H., Matsumoto, T., Matsumoto, R., Hattori, M., Okano, M., Iwase, R., Tomaru, H., 2001b.]. Carbonates of Kuroshima Knoll have various shapes and macroscopic textures. These have been classified into 4 types; shell crust (pavement), chimney, burrow, and nodule. It is clear that all chimney and burrow carbonates are composed of dolomite, while shell curst and nodule are composed of calcite, sometimes both calcite and dolomite. These carbonates are considered to have been formed by cold seep, because they are characterized by the light carbon isotopic ratio (semi-biogenic) and the heavy oxygen isotopic ratio. This suggests that methane hydrate layers develop under this survey area and the water that has the heavy oxygen and the light carbon isotopic ratio is derived from the dissociation of methane hydrate.     

Seasonal Transition Features of Large-Scale Moisture Transport in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1957-2001, the climatological seasonal transition features of large-scale vertically integrated moisture transport （VIMT） in the Asian-Australian monsoon region are investigated in this paper. The basic features of the seasonal transition of VIMT from winter to summer are the establishment of the summertime ＂great moisture river＂ pattern （named the GMR pattern） and its eastward expansion, associated with a series of climatological events which occurred in some ＂key periods＂, which include the occurrence of the notable southerly VIMT over the Indochina Peninsula in mid March, the activity of the low VIMT vortex around Sri Lanka in late April, and the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon in mid May, among others. However, during the transition from summer to winter, the characteristics are mainly exhibited by the establishment of the easterly VIMT belt located in the tropical area, accompanied by some events occurring in ＂key periods＂. Further analyses disclose a great difference between the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions when viewed from the meridional migration of the westerly VIMT during the seasonal change process, according to which the Asian monsoon region can be easily divided into two parts along the western side of the Indochina Peninsula and it may also denote different formation mechanisms between the two regions.     

Biostratigraphy and depositional facies of the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary strata in Amakusa-Shimojima,Kyushu, Western Japan

The Upper Himenoura Subgroup exposed in the island of Amakusa-Shimojima, Kyushu, Japan shows an example of the terminal Cretaceous stratigraphic record in the circum Pacific region. This sequence is a part of the Upper Cretaceous intra-arc basins of southwest Japan. Four cycles of upward coarse-graded facies are recognized. Each cycle consists of a basinal mud facies in the lower part and a tide-dominated shallow marine to brackish coarse clastic facies in the upper part. Biostratigraphic correlation chiefly based on ammonites, inocerami and trigoniids indicates that this sequence is Campanian to Maastrichtian in age. The occurrence of the above three fossils decreases upward and is terminated at the top of the sequence, being replaced by a molluscan assemblage similar to the Danian. This suggests that the sedimentation may have continued to the very end of the Cretaceous period and possibly to the beginning of the Tertiary.     

A 3600 years paleoclimatic change inferred from organic δ13C and TOC/TN of the Gucheng Lake sediments, southeast China

A 6.2 m thick core of Gucheng Lake sediment provided a 3600 years record of climate change. The contents of the TOC in the core changed from 2.63% to 8.48%, and the δ¹³C values of organic matter were from −21.54% to −27.3%. The TOC/TN ratios indicated that the organic materials in sediments were from lake plankton and land-derived plants. The 2.9–22 m core interval with high TOC/TN ratios, low δ¹³C values and low contents of TOC indicated a cold climate stage. The 6.2–5.5 m and 0.4–0.1 m intervals were characterized by low TOC/TN ratios, high δ¹³C values and high contents of TOC, and reflected temperate climate stages. Project 49372129 supported by NSFC.     

Petrological constraints on the formation conditions and retrograde P–T path of the Kotsu eclogite unit, central Shikoku

A largely undocumented region of eclogite associated with a thick blueschist unit occurs in the Kotsu area of the Sanbagawa belt. The composition of coexisting garnet and omphacite suggests that the Kotsu eclogite formed at peak temperatures of around 600 °C synchronous with a penetrative deformation (D1). There are local significant differences in oxygen fugacity of the eclogite reflected in mineral chemistries. The peak pressure is constrained to lie between 14 and 25 kbar by microstructural evidence for the stability of paragonite throughout the history recorded by the eclogite, and the composition of omphacite in associated eclogite facies pelitic schist. Application of garnet‐phengite‐omphacite geobarometry gives metamorphic pressures around 20 kbar. Retrograde metamorphism associated with penetrative deformation (D2) is in the greenschist facies. The composition of syn‐D2 amphibole in hematite‐bearing basic schist and the nature of the calcium carbonate phase suggest that the retrograde P–T path was not associated with a significant increase or decrease in the ratio of P–T conditions following the peak of metamorphism. This P–T path contrasts with the open clockwise path derived from eclogite of the Besshi area. The development of distinct P–T paths in different parts of the Sanbagawa belt shows the shape of the P–T path is not primarily controlled by tectonic setting, but by internal factors such as geometry of metamorphic units and exhumation rates.     

A 16 ka climate record deduced from δ^13C and C/N ratio in Qinghai Lake sediments, northeastern Tibetan Plateau

1 INTRODUCTION δ13C in organic matters from lacustrine sedi- ments varies with several factors including aquatic plants, vegetation type in the catchment, atmos- pheric CO2 concentration, climate (temperature and precipitation), and properties of water, …