Ocean acidification in New Zealand waters: trends and impacts

The threat posed by ocean acidification (OA) to the diversity and productivity of New Zealand marine ecosystems is assessed in a synthesis of published trends and impacts. A 20-year time series in Subantarctic water, and a national coastal monitoring programme, provide insight into pH variability, and context for experimental design, modelling and projections. A review of the potential impact of changes in the carbonate system on the major phyla in New Zealand waters confirms international observations that calcifying organisms, and particularly their early life-history stages, are vulnerable. The synthesis considers ecosystem and socio-economic impacts, and identifies current knowledge gaps and future research directions, including mechanistic studies of OA sensitivity. Advanced ecosystem models of OA, that incorporate the indirect effects of OA and interactions with other climate stressors, are required for robust projection of the future status of New Zealand marine ecosystems.     

Climate change projections for the surface ocean around New Zealand

The future status of the surface ocean around New Zealand was projected using two Earth System Models and four emission scenarios. By 2100 mean changes are largest under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), with a +2.5°C increase in sea surface temperature, and decreases in surface mixed layer depth (15%), macronutrients (7.5–20%), primary production (4.5%) and particle flux (12%). Largest macronutrient declines occur in the eastern Chatham Rise and subantarctic waters to the south, whereas dissolved iron increases in subtropical waters. Surface pH projections, validated against subantarctic time-series data, indicate a 0.335 decline to ～7.77 by 2100. However, projected pH is sensitive to future CO₂ emissions, remaining within the current range under RCP2.6, but decreasing below it by 2040 with all other scenarios. Sub-regions vulnerable to climate change include the Chatham Rise, polar waters south of 50°S, and subtropical waters north of New Zealand, whereas the central Tasman Sea is least affected.     

Monitoring Residual Spatial Patterns using Bayesian Hierarchical Spatial Modelling for Exploring Unknown Risk Factors

This article studies Bayesian hierarchical spatial modelling that monitors the changes of residual spatial pattern (structure) of the outcome variable for exploring unknown risk factors in small‐area analysis. Spatially structured random effects (SRE) and unstructured random effects (URE) terms added to the conventional logistic regression model take into account overdispersion and residual spatial structure, which if unaccounted for could cause incorrect identification of risk factors. Mapping and/or calculating the ratio of random effects that are spatially‐structured monitor the extent of residual spatial structure. The monitoring provides insights into identification of unknown covariates that have similar spatial structures to those of SRE. Adding such covariates to the model has the potential to diminish the residual spatial structure, until possibly all or most of the spatial structure can be explained. Risk factors identified are the added covariates that have statistically significant regression coefficients. We apply the methods to the analysis of domestic burglaries in Cambridgeshire, England. Small‐area analysis of crime where data often display apparent spatial structure would particularly benefit from the methodologies. We discuss the methodologies, their relevancy in our analysis of domestic burglaries, their limitations, and possible paths for future research.     

Did dilution limit the phytoplankton response to iron addition in HNLCLSi sub-Antarctic waters during the SAGE experiment?

An in situ iron addition experiment (SAGE) was carried out in high-nitrate low-chlorophyll low-silicic acid (HNLCLSi) sub-Antarctic surface waters south-east of New Zealand. In contrast to other iron addition experiments, the phytoplankton response was minor, with a doubling of biomass relative to surrounding waters, with the temporal trends in dissolved iron and macronutrients instead dominated by physical factors such as mixing and dilution. The initial increase in patch surface area indicated a lateral dilution rate of 0.125 d⁻¹, with a second estimate from a model of the decline in peak SF₆ concentration yielding a higher lateral dilution rate of 0.16-0.25 d⁻¹. The model was tested on the SOIREE SF₆ dataset and provided a lateral dilution of 0.07 d⁻¹, consistent with previous published estimates. MODIS ocean colour images showed elevated chlorophyll coincident with the SF₆ patch on day 10 and 12, and an elevated chlorophyll filament at the SAGE experiment location 3-4 days after ship departure, which provided additional lateral dilution estimates of 0.19 and 0.128 d⁻¹. Dissolved iron at the patch centre declined by 85% within two days of the initial infusion, of which dilution accounted for 50-65%; it also decreased rapidly after the 2nd and 3rd infusions but remained elevated after the fourth infusion. Despite decreases in nitrate and silicic acid from day 7 and 10, respectively, the final nutrient concentrations in the patch exceeded the initial concentrations due to supply from lateral intrusion and mixed-layer deepening. The low Si:N loss ratio suggested that the observed limited response to iron was primarily by non-siliceous phytoplankton. Algal growth rate exceeded the minimum dilution rate during two periods (days 3-6 and 10-14), and coincided with net chlorophyll accumulation. However, as the ratio of algal growth to dilution was the lowest reported for an iron addition experiment, dilution was clearly a significant factor in the SAGE experiment recording the lowest phytoplankton response to mesoscale iron addition.     

ParCYCLIC: finite element modelling of earthquake liquefaction response on parallel computers

This paper presents the computational procedures and solution strategy employed in ParCYCLIC, a parallel non‐linear finite element program developed based on an existing serial code CYCLIC for the analysis of cyclic seismically‐induced liquefaction problems. In ParCYCLIC, finite elements are employed within an incremental plasticity, coupled solid–fluid formulation. A constitutive model developed for simulating liquefaction‐induced deformations is a main component of this analysis framework. The elements of the computational strategy, designed for distributed‐memory message‐passing parallel computer systems, include: (a) an automatic domain decomposer to partition the finite element mesh; (b) nodal ordering strategies to minimize storage space for the matrix coefficients; (c) an efficient scheme for the allocation of sparse matrix coefficients among the processors; and (d) a parallel sparse direct solver. Application of ParCYCLIC to simulate 3‐D geotechnical experimental models is demonstrated. The computational results show excellent parallel performance and scalability of ParCYCLIC on parallel computers with a large number of processors. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Targeting European R&D for accidental marine pollution

Accidental marine pollution can have major ecological and economic consequences at national and trans-national levels, and there is a need to achieve a better integration of science into actual decision-making systems to support prevention measures, response systems and management activities.. Effective linking mechanisms between R&D and end-users/policy stakeholders are required to ensure the relevance of R&D, effective uptake of R&D outputs, and suitable policy development. Different issues and barriers to effectively link accidental marine pollution R&D effort to end-users concerns and needs and to develop a trans-national strategic approach are identified, analysed, and further developed into recommendations.     

Parallel finite element modeling of earthquake ground response and liquefaction

Parallel computing is a promising approach to alleviate the computational demand in conducting large-scale finite element analyses. This paper presents a numerical modeling approach for earthquake ground response and liquefaction using the parallel nonlinear finite element program, ParCYCLIC, designed for distributed-memory message-passing parallel computer systems. In ParCYCL1C, finite elements are employed within an incremental plasticity, coupled solid-fluid formulation. A constitutive model calibrated by physical tests represents the salient characteristics of sand liquefaction and associated accumulation of shear deformations. Key elements of the computational strategy employed in ParCYCL1C include the development of a parallel sparse direct solver, the deployment of an automatic domain decomposer, and the use of the Multilevel Nested Dissection algorithm for ordering of the finite element nodes. Simulation results of centrifuge test models using ParCYCLIC are presented. Performance results from grid models and geotechnical simulations show that ParCYCLIC is efficiently scalable to a large number of processors.     

An analysis of soil moisture dynamics using multi-year data from a network of micrometeorological observation sites

Soil moisture data, obtained from four AmeriFlux sites in the US, were examined using an ecohydrological framework. Sites were selected for the analysis to provide a range of plant functional type, climate, soil particle size distribution, and time series of data spanning a minimum of two growing seasons. Soil moisture trends revealed the importance of measuring water content at several depths throughout the rooting zone; soil moisture at the surface (0–10 cm) was approximately 20–30% less than that at 50–60 cm. A modified soil moisture dynamics model was used to generate soil moisture probability density functions at each site. Model calibration results demonstrated that the commonly used soil matric potential values for finding the vegetation stress point and field content may not be appropriate, particularly for vegetation adapted to a water-controlled environment. Projections of future soil moisture patterns suggest that two of the four sites will become severely stressed by climate change induced alterations to the precipitation regime.     

Market‐based control of linear structural systems

To limit the response of structures during external disturbances such as strong winds or large seismic events, structural control systems can be used. In the structural engineering field, attention has been shifted from active control to semi‐active control systems. Unlike active control system devices, semi‐active devices are compact, have efficient power consumption characteristics and are less expensive. As a result, an environment of a large number of actuators and sensors will result, rendering a complex large‐scale dynamic system. Such a system is best controlled by a decentralized approach such as market‐based control (MBC). In MBC, the system is modelled as a market place of buyers and sellers that leads to an efficient allocation of control power. The resulting MBC solution is shown to be locally Pareto optimal. This novel control approach is applied to three linear structural systems ranging from a one‐storey structure to a 20‐storey structure, all controlled by semi‐active hydraulic dampers. It is shown that MBC is competitive in the reduction of structural responses during large seismic loadings as compared to the centralized control approach of the linear quadratic regulation controller. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.