Sensitivity analysis of a coastal marine ecosystem

An ecosystem with four compartments, i.e. PO₄-P, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus, in a coastal region was considered. Sensitivity analysis of a phosphorus flow model in well-mixed water without currents concludes that (1) the maximal photosynthetic rate,V _m , in Michaelis-Menten relation plays an important role in the distribution of biomass among compartments but the half saturation constant,K _s , is not so important, (2) the natural death rate of phytoplankton is important for the ecosystem, (3) the natural death rate of zooplankton is also effective on the ecosystem.A numerical experiment was also performed on the ecosystem with four compartments are also studied using a dynamical barotropic model of tidal currents of Mikawa Bay (Japan). Diffusion coefficient in diffusion equation plays the role of a linear smoothing parameter in the horizontal distribution of compartment. On the other hand, perturbations of biological parameters cause nonlinear variations in the horizontal distribution of compartment.     

Tidal Mixing in the Kuril Straits and Its Impact on Ventilation in the North Pacific Ocean

A numerical study using a 3-D nonhydrostatic model has been applied to baroclinic processes generated by the K ₁ tidal flow in and around the Kuril Straits. The result shows that large-amplitude unsteady lee waves are generated and cause intense diapycnal mixing all along the Kuril Island Chain to levels of a maximum diapycnal diffusivity exceeding 10³ cm²s⁻¹. Significant water transformation by the vigorous mixing in shallow regions produces the distinct density and potential vorticity (PV) fronts along the Island Chain. The pinched-off eddies that arise and move away from the fronts have the ability to transport a large amount of mixed water (∼14 Sv) to the offshore regions, roughly half being directed to the North Pacific. These features are consistent with recent satellite imagery and in-situ observations, suggesting that diapycnal mixing within the vicinity of the Kuril Islands has a greater impact than was previously supposed on the Okhotsk Sea and the North Pacific. To examine this influence of tidal processes at the Kurils on circulations in the neighboring two basins, another numerical experiment was conducted using an ocean general circulation model with inclusion of tidal mixing along the islands, which gives a better representation of the Okhotsk Sea Mode Water than in the case without the tidal mixing. This is mainly attributed to the added effect of a significant upward salt flux into the surface layer due to tidal mixing in the Kuril Straits, which is subsequently transported to the interior region of the Okhotsk Sea. With a saline flux into the surface layer, cooling in winter in the northern part of the Okhotsk Sea can produce heavier water and thus enhance subduction, which is capable of reproducing a realistic Okhotsk Sea Mode Water. The associated low PV flux from the Kuril Straits to the open North Pacific excites the 2nd baroclinic-mode Kelvin and Rossby waves in addition to the 1st mode. Interestingly, the meridional overturning in the North Pacific is strengthened as a result of the dynamical adjustment caused by these waves, leading to a more realistic reproduction of the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) than in the case without tidal mixing. Accordingly, the joint effect of tidally-induced transport and transformation dominating in the Kuril Straits and subsequent eddy-transport is considered to play an important role in the ventilation of both the Okhotsk Sea and the North Pacific Ocean. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Formation, Distribution and Volume Transport of the North Pacific Intermediate Water Studied by Repeat Hydrographic Observations

In order to examine the formation, distribution and transport of North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW), repeated hydrographic observations along several lines in the western North Pacific were carried out in the period from 1996 to 2001. NPIW formation can be described as follows: (1) Oyashio water extends south of the Subarctic Boundary and meets Kuroshio water in intermediate layers; (2) active mixing between Oyashio and Kuroshio waters occurs in intermediate layers; (3) the mixing of Oyashio and Kuroshio waters and salinity minimum formation around the potential density of 26.8σ_θ proceed to the east. It is found that Kuroshio water flows eastward even in the region north of 40°N across the 165°E line, showing that Kuroshio water extends north of the Subarctic Boundary. Volume transports of Oyashio and Kuroshio components (relative to 2000 dbar) integrated in the potential density range of 26.6–27.4σθ along the Kuroshio Extension across 152°E–165°E are estimated to be 7–8 Sv (10⁶ m³s⁻¹) and 9–10 Sv, respectively, which is consistent with recent work. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Application of Sensitivity Analysis Using an Adjoint Model for Short-Range Forecasts of the Kuroshio Path South of Japan

A sensitivity experiment has been performed by assimilating altimetric data into a 1.5-layer primitive equation model as a first attempt to examine the impact of initialization on forecasts of the Kuroshio path variability south of Japan. By exploiting the advantage of an adjoint model, our approach clearly shows that a small meander off Shikoku Island has a large impact on the prediction of meander growth in the Kuroshio region. Further, the strengthening of the Kuroshio current and its recirculation clearly becomes an important factor in the development of the meander. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our assimilation approach in identifying efficient initialization schemes on numerical forecasting of the Kuroshio south of Japan and should help in the construction of an effective observing system for improving the forecasting. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Accelerated continental-scale snowmelt and ecohydrological impacts in the four largest Siberian river basins in response to spring warming

River runoff from the four largest Siberian river basins (the Ob, Yenisei, Lena, and Kolyma) considerably contributes to freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean from the Eurasian continent. However, the effects of variation in snow cover fraction on the ecohydrological variations in these basins are not well understood. In this study, we analysed the spatiotemporal variability of the maximum snow cover fraction (SCF_max) in the four Siberian river basins. We compared the SCF_max from 2000 to 2016 with data in terms of monthly temperature and precipitation, night-time surface temperatures, the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA), the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), and river runoff. Our results exhibit a decreasing trend in the April SCF_max values since 2000, largely in response to warming air temperatures in April. We identified snowmelt water as the dominant control on the observed increase in the runoff contribution in May across all four Siberian river basins. In addition, we detected that the interannual river runoff was predominantly controlled by interannual variations in the TWSA. The NDVI in June was strongly controlled by the timing of the snowmelt along with the surface air temperature and TWSA in June. The rate of increase in the freshwater flux from the four Siberian rivers decreased from 2000 to 2016, exhibiting large interannual variations corresponding to interannual variations in the TWSA. However, we identified a clear increase trend in the freshwater flux of ~4 km³/year when analysing the long-term 39-year historical record (1978–2016). Our results suggest that continued global warming will accelerate the transition towards the earlier timing of snowmelt and spring freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean. Our findings also highlight the effects of earlier snowmelt on ecohydrological changes in the Northern Hemisphere.     

Can the visualization of rip currents prevent drowning accidents? Consideration of the effect of optimism bias

Drowning accidents at beach in Japan are caused by rip currents. To reduce these accidents, a new technology that can detect rip currents and notify beachgoers by using the Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) was proposed. However, studies on the effect of visualizing rip currents or considering the effect of optimism bias have not been conducted. This study investigates if visualization of rip currents might help in preventing drowning accidents, while considering the effect of optimism bias. The participants were 90 Japanese beachgoers. They were asked to answer questions based on their knowledge of the beach and rip currents, their optimism bias regarding rip currents, and awareness with or without visualization. The results of the analyses suggest that despite optimism bias, the visualization of rip currents increases the tendency of beachgoers to perceive and avoid rip currents. As described above, it was found that by visualizing the rip current, beachgoers were able to perceive and avoid rip currents. In addition, an understanding of rip currents is positively related to the intent to avoid rip currents even when rip currents are visualized. Therefore, it is necessary not only to enhance the avoidance tendency by visualizing rip currents, but also to further enhance knowledge of beachgoers to deepen the understanding of rip currents including the danger associated and methods to avoid them.

     

A FEM-MPM hybrid coupled framework based on local shear strength method for simulating rainfall/runoff-induced landslide runout

Landslides - Limited by the independence and its defects of each general software package, simultaneous analysis of runoff, seepage, and large-deformation analysis is still an inevitable challenge....     

Seasonal and inter-annual changes of volume density of martian CO2 snow from time-variable elevation and gravity

The martian atmosphere seasonally exchanges CO₂ with the surface by repeating condensation and sublimation, causing seasonal growth and decay of the polar CO₂ snowcaps. These processes leave two kinds of geodetic signatures, i.e. seasonal changes of the martian gravity field and of surface elevation of the snow-covered regions. Here we study gradual increase of the volume density of the martian snow due to compaction, by combining these two data sets during 1999-2001 covering three martian winters. We found that light fresh snow of slowly becomes denser reaching or more immediately before it thaws. The maximum snow density varies slightly from year to year, and between hemispheres. In the second southern winter, the density became as high as . This might have been caused by a dust storm activity, e.g. increased mixing of silicate particles and/or enhancement of sintering.     

Aerodynamic Parameters of Regular Arrays of Rectangular Blocks with Various Geometries

The aerodynamic effects of various configurations of an urban array were investigated in a wind-tunnel experiment. Three aerodynamic parameters characterising arrays—the drag coefficient (C _d ), roughness length (z _o) and displacement height (d)—are used for analysis. C _d is based on the direct measurement of the total surface shear using a floating element, and the other two parameters are estimated by logarithmic fitting of the measured wind profile and predetermined total drag force. The configurations of 63 arrays used for measurement were designed to estimate the effects of layout, wind direction and the height variability of the blocks on these parameters for various roughness packing densities. The results are summarised as follows: (1) The estimated C _d and z _o of the staggered arrays peak against the plan area index (λ _p ) and frontal area index (λ _f ), in contrast with values for the square arrays, which are less sensitive to λ _p and λ _f . In addition, the square arrays with a wind direction of 45° have a considerably larger C _d , and the wind direction increases z _o/H by up to a factor of 2. (2) The effect of the non-uniformity of roughness height on z _o is more remarkable when λ _f exceeds 20%, and the discrepancy in z _o is particularly remarkable and exceeds 200%. (3) The effect of the layout of tall blocks on C _d is stronger than that of short blocks. These results indicate that the effects of both wind direction and the non-uniformity of the heights of buildings on urban aerodynamic parameters vary greatly with λ _p and λ _f ; hence, these effects should be taken into account by considering the roughness packing density.