The effect of density stratification on the prediction of global storm surges

With the long-term goal of developing an operational forecast system for total water level, we conduct a hindcast study of global storm surges for Fall 2014 using a baroclinic ocean model based on the NEMO framework. The model has 19 vertical levels, a horizontal resolution of 1/12°, and is forced by hourly forecasts of atmospheric wind and air pressure. Our first objective is to evaluate the model’s ability to predict hourly sea levels recorded by a global array of 257 tide gauges. It is shown that the model can provide reasonable predictions of surges for the whole test period at tide gauges with relatively large tidal residuals (i.e., gauges where the standard deviation of observed sea level, after removal of the tide, exceeds 5 cm). Our second objective is to quantify the effect of density stratification on the prediction of global surges. It is found that the inclusion of density stratification increases the overall predictive skill at almost all tide gauges. The increase in skill for the instantaneous peak surge is smaller. The location for which the increase in overall skill is largest (east coast of South Africa) is discussed in detail and physical reasons for the improvement are given.     

Characteristics of crustal structures in the Yamato Basin,sea of Japan,deduced from seismic explorations

Crustal structures around the Yamato Basin in the southeastern Sea of Japan, inferred from recent ocean bottom seismography (OBS) and active-source seismological studies, are reviewed to elucidate various stages of crustal modification involved from rifting in the crust of the surrounding continental arc to the production of oceanic crust in the Yamato Basin of the back-arc basin. The northern, central, and southern areas of the Yamato Basin have crustal thicknesses of approximately 12–16 km, and lowermost crusts with P-wave velocities greater than 7.2 km/s. Very few units have P-wave velocities in the range 5.4–6.0 km/s, which corresponds to the continental upper crust. These findings, combined with previous geochemical analysis of basalt samples, are interpreted to indicate that a thick oceanic crust has been formed in these areas of the basin, and that this oceanic crust has been underplated by mantle-derived magma. In the central Yamato Basin, the original continental crust has been fully breached and oceanic crust has been formed. Conversely, the presence of a unit corresponding to the continental upper crust and the absence of a high-velocity part in the lower crust implies that the southwestern edge of the Yamato Basin has a rifted crust without significant intrusion. The Oki Trough has a crust that is 17–19 km thick with a high-velocity lower crust and a unit corresponding to the continental upper crust. The formation of the Oki Trough resulted from rifting with magmatic intrusion and/or underplating. We interpret these variations in the crustal characteristics of the Yamato Basin area as reflecting various instances of crustal modification by thinning and magmatic intrusion due to back-arc extension, resulting in the production of a thick oceanic crust in the basin.     

Structure of a Volcanic Continental Margin Derived from Ocean-bottom Seismographic Data: The Northern Vøring Margin, off Norway

—This paper presents a crustal model derived from an Ocean Bottom Seismograph (OBS) study along the northern Vøring margin off Norway. The profile was acquired to map the crustal structure in the northernmost part of the Vøring Basin, and to link crustal models of the Lofoten and central Vøring Basin obtained by previous OBS studies. The Vøring margin, as well as the Lofoten margin to the north, was created by continental breakup between Norway and Greenland in late Paleocene-early Eocene. The rifting and continental breakup process were accompanied by intense extrusive and intrusive magmatic activities. The OBS data provide the whole crustal structure along the northern Vøring margin, in the area where the deep crustal structure cannot be resolved by conventional multichannel reflection data due to sill intrusions in the sedimentary sequence. The shallow part of the crustal model is characterized by up to 10 km thick sediments, a sequence of flood basalts and sill intrusions. The P-wave velocities in the flood basalts and sill intrusions are estimated to 5.0 km/s and 4.7–5.8 km/s, respectively. The model indicates an abrupt thickening of the upper crystalline crust from approx.3 km in the NE, to about 10 km towards the SE, with velocities of 6.0–6.2 km/s. The lower crustal velocities are not well resolved due to lack of clear refraction arrivals from the lower crust. However, the observed amplitude versus offsets are best explained by a model with a change in lower crustal velocities from 6.8 to 7.2 km/s beneath the Bivrost lineament. The modelling infers the presence of a lower crustal reflector beneath the lineament, which represents the landward continuation of the Bivrost lineament. Reflection arrivals from the Moho reveal a Moho depth of 23 km in the middle of the profile and 18– 20 km in the northeastern part of the profile. A 370 km long crustal section from the central part of the Vøring Basin to the Lofoten margin, obtained by the results of this study and previous OBS studies, shows a simple thinned continental crust on the Lofoten margin, and a high velocity lower crust underlying an upper crust of varying thickness in the Vøring Basin. The transition between these structures is situated beneath the Bivrost lineament in the lower crust, and beneath the basement high about 40 km south of the lineament in the upper crust.     

Structural characteristics off Miyagi forearc region, the Japan Trench seismogenic zone, deduced from a wide-angle reflection and refraction study

The Japan Trench subduction zone, located east of NE Japan, has regional variation in seismicity. Many large earthquakes occurred in the northern part of Japan Trench, but few in the southern part. Off Miyagi region is in the middle of the Japan Trench, where the large earthquakes (M > 7) with thrust mechanisms have occurred at an interval of about 40 years in two parts: inner trench slope and near land. A seismic experiment using 36 ocean bottom seismographs (OBS) and a 12,000 cu. in. airgun array was conducted to determine a detailed, 2D velocity structure in the forearc region off Miyagi. The depth to the Moho is 21 km, at 115 km from the trench axis, and becomes progressively deeper landward. The P-wave velocity of the mantle wedge is 7.9–8.1 km/s, which is typical velocity for uppermost mantle without large serpentinization. The dip angle of oceanic crust is increased from 5–6° near the trench axis to 23° 150 km landward from the trench axis. The P-wave velocity of the oceanic uppermost mantle is as small as 7.7 km/s. This low-velocity oceanic mantle seems to be caused by not a lateral anisotropy but some subduction process. By comparison with the seismicity off Miyagi, the subduction zone can be divided into four parts: 1) Seaward of the trench axis, the seismicity is low and normal fault-type earthquakes occur associated with the destruction of oceanic lithosphere. 2) Beneath the deformed zone landward of the trench axis, the plate boundary is characterized as a stable sliding fault plain. In case of earthquakes, this zone may be tsunamigenic. 3) Below forearc crust where P-wave velocity is almost 6 km/s and larger: this zone is the seismogenic zone below inner trench slope, which is a plate boundary between the forearc and oceanic crusts. 4) Below mantle wedge: the rupture zones of thrust large earthquakes near land (e.g. 1978 off Miyagi earthquake) are located beneath the mantle wedge. The depth of the rupture zones is 30–50 km below sea level. From the comparison, the rupture zones of large earthquakes off Miyagi are limited in two parts: plate boundary between the forearc and oceanic crusts and below mantle wedge. This limitation is a rare case for subduction zone. Although the seismogenic process beneath the mantle wedge is not fully clarified, our observation suggests the two possibilities: earthquake generation at the plate boundary overridden by the mantle wedge without serpentinization or that in the subducting slab.     

V p/V s-ratios from the central Kolbeinsey Ridge to the Jan Mayen Basin,North Atlantic; implications for lithology,porosity and present-day stress field

The horizontal components from twenty Ocean Bottom Seismometers deployed along three profiles near the Kolbeinsey Ridge, North Atlantic, have been modelled with regard to S-waves, based on P-wave models obtained earlier. Two profiles were acquired parallel to the ridge, and the third profile extended eastwards across the continental Jan Mayen Basin. The modelling requires a thin (few 100 m) layer with very high V _p/V _s-ratio (3.5–9.5) at the sea-floor in the area lacking sedimentary cover. The obtained V _p/V _s-ratios for the remaining part of layer 2A, 2B, 3 and upper mantle, correspond to the following lithologies: pillow lavas, sheeted dykes, gabbro and peridotite, respectively. All crustal layers exhibit a decreasing trend in V _p/V _s-ratio away-from-the-axis, interpreted as decreasing porosity and/or crack density in that direction. A significant S-wave azimuthal anisotropy is observed within the thin uppermost layer of basalt near the ridge. The anisotropy is interpreted as being caused by fluid-filled microcracks aligned along the direction of present-day maximum compressive stress, and indicates crustal extension at the ridge itself and perpendicular-to-the-ridge compression 12 km off axis. Spreading along the Kolbeinsey Ridge has most likely been continuous since its initiation ca. 25 Ma: The data do not suggest the presence of an extinct spreading axis between the Kolbeinsey Ridge and the Aegir Ridge as has been proposed earlier. The V _p/V _s-ratios found in the Jan Mayen Basin are compatible with continental crust, overlain by a sedimentary section dominated by shale.     

Lower crustal seismic velocity-anomalies; magmatic underplating or serpentinized peridotite? Evidence from the Vøring Margin,NE Atlantic

On the Vøring volcanic passive margin offshore mid-Norway, NE Atlantic, a lower crustal body with P-wave velocities in the range of 7.1–7.7 km/s has been mapped by twenty two-dimensional Ocean Bottom Seismograph (OBS) profiles. The main aim of the present paper is to evaluate to what extent the lower crust is consistent with magmatic intrusions or serpentinized peridotite. The relatively low V _p/V _s ratios of 1.75–1.78 modelled for the lower crust under the continental part of the Vøring Plateau are consistent with mafic intrusions mixed with blocks of stretched continental crust, but not with the presence of partially serpentinized peridotites. The lower crustal high-velocity body is restricted to the area of the Late Cretaceous/Early Tertiary rift that lead to continental break-up in Early Eocene. The same model can explain the observations in the northern Vøring Basin, but in the central and southern Vøring Basin the seismic velocities do not preclude a model involving serpentinized peridotite in addition to intrusions and continental remnants. On the west Iberia non-volcanic margin a similar layer is interpreted as serpentinized peridotite. The existence of Moho reflections, the observation of S-wave anisotropy but absence of P-wave anisotropy, uncertainties regarding supply of water to allow for significant serpentinization and very low stretching factors compared with the west Iberia Margin, are among factors that argue against the presence of serpentinized peridotite in the Vøring Basin.     

Outline of the JNLT project

The Japanese National Large Telescope (JNLT) is a 7.5 m reflector with a monolithic thin meniscus main mirror, having the candidate construction site on the northwest cone of the Mauna Kea, Hawaii.The present concept of JNLT has the characteristics of a third generation infrared telescope, which should be capable of various observations of high spatial resolution in the optical-infrared region.Although the project is still under examination from the financial and administrative point of view, a wide range of technical studies were carried out by the JNLT Working Group with the collaboration of specialists from the academic and the industrial sectors.Paper presented at the symposium on the JNLT and Related Engineering Developments, Tokyo, November 29–December 2, 1988.     

Rejuvenated extension of the Philippine Sea plate and its effect on subduction dynamics in the Nankai Trough

The Nankai Trough, Japan, is a subduction zone characterized by the recurrence of disastrous earthquakes and tsunamis. Slow earthquakes and associated tremor also occur intermittently and locally in the Nankai Trough and the causal relationship between slow earthquakes and large earthquakes is important to understanding subduction zone dynamics. The Nankai Trough off Muroto, Shikoku Island, near the southeast margin of the rupture segment of the 1946 Nankai earthquake, is one of three regions where slow earthquakes and tremor cluster in the Nankai Trough. On the Philippine Sea plate, the rifting of the central domain of the Shikoku Basin was aborted at ~15 Ma and underthrust the Nankai forearc off Muroto. Here, the Tosa-Bae seamount and other high-relief features, which are northern extension of the Kinan Seamount chain, have collided with and indented the forearc wedge. In this study, we analyzed seismic reflection profiles around the deformation front of accretionary wedge and stratigraphically correlated them to drilling sites off Muroto. Our results show that the previously aborted horst-and-graben structures, which were formed around the spreading center of the Shikoku Basin at ~15 Ma, were rejuvenated locally at ~6 Ma and more regionally at ~3.3 Ma and have remained active since. The reactivated normal faulting has enhanced seafloor roughness and appears to affect the locations of slow earthquakes and tremors. Rejuvenated normal faulting is not limited to areas near the Nankai Trough, and extends more than 200 km into the Shikoku Basin to the south. This extension might be due to extensional forces applied to the Philippine Sea plate, which appear to be driven by slab-pull in the Ryukyu and Philippine trenches along the western margin of the Philippine Sea plate.     

Structural characteristics controlling the seismicity crustal structure of southern Japan Trench fore-arc region, revealed by ocean bottom seismographic data

The Japan Trench is a plate convergent zone where the Pacific Plate is subducting below the Japanese islands. Many earthquakes occur associated with plate convergence, and the hypocenter distribution is variable along the Japan Trench. In order to investigate the detailed structure in the southern Japan Trench and to understand the variation of seismicity around the Japan Trench, a wide-angle seismic survey was conducted in the southern Japan Trench fore-arc region in 1998. Ocean bottom seismometers (15) were deployed on two seismic lines: one parallel to the trench axis and one perpendicular. Velocity structures along two seismic lines were determined by velocity modeling of travel time ray-tracing method. Results from the experiment show that the island arc Moho is 18–20 km in depth and consists of four layers: Tertiary and Cretaceous sedimentary rocks, island arc upper and lower crust. The uppermost mantle of the island arc (mantle wedge) extends to 110 km landward of the trench axis. The P-wave velocity of the mantle wedge is laterally heterogeneous: 7.4 km/s at the tip of the mantle wedge and 7.9 km/s below the coastline. An interplate layer is constrained in the subducting oceanic crust. The thickness of the interplate layer is about 1 km for a velocity of 4 km/s. Interplate layer at the plate boundary may cause weak interplate coupling and low seismicity near the trench axis. Low P-wave velocity mantle wedge is also consistent with weak interplate coupling. Thick interplate layer and heterogeneous P-wave velocity of mantle wedge may be associated with the variation of seismic activity.