Representation of Uncertainty and Integration of PGIS-based Grazing Intensity Maps Using Evidential Belief Functions

In a project to classify livestock grazing intensity using participatory geographic information systems (PGIS), we encountered the problem of how to synthesize PGIS-based maps of livestock grazing intensity that were prepared separately by local experts. We investigated the utility of evidential belief functions (EBFs) and Dempster's rule of combination to represent classification uncertainty and integrate the PGIS-based grazing intensity maps. These maps were used as individual sets of evidence in the application of EBFs to evaluate the proposition that " This area or pixel belongs to the high, medium, or low grazing intensity class because the local expert(s) says (say) so ". The class-area-weighted averages of EBFs based on each of the PGIS-based maps show that the lowest degree of classification uncertainty is associated with maps in which "vegetation species" was used as the mapping criterion. This criterion, together with local landscape attributes of livestock use may be considered as an appropriate standard measure for grazing intensity. The maps of integrated EBFs of grazing intensity show that classification uncertainty is high when the local experts apply at least two mapping criteria together. This study demonstrates the usefulness of EBFs to represent classification uncertainty and the possibility to use the EBF values in identifying and using criteria for PGIS-based mapping of livestock grazing intensity.     

A submillimetre survey of the kinematics of the Perseus molecular cloud – I. Data

We present submillimetre observations of the   J = 3 → 2  rotational transition of ¹²CO, ¹³CO and C¹⁸O across over 600 arcmin² of the Perseus molecular cloud, undertaken with the Heterodyne Array Receiver Programme (HARP), a new array spectrograph on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope. The data encompass four regions of the cloud, containing the largest clusters of dust continuum condensations: NGC 1333, IC348, L1448 and L1455. A new procedure to remove striping artefacts from the raw HARP data is introduced. We compare the maps to those of the dust continuum emission mapped with the Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA; Hatchell et al.) and the positions of starless and protostellar cores (Hatchell et al.). No straightforward correlation is found between the masses of each region derived from the HARP CO and SCUBA data, underlining the care that must be exercised when comparing masses of the same object derived from different tracers. From the ¹³CO/C¹⁸O line ratio the relative abundance of the two species  ([¹³CO]/[C¹⁸O]∼ 7)  and their opacities (typically τ is 0.02–0.22 and 0.15–1.52 for the C¹⁸O and ¹³CO gas, respectively) are calculated. C¹⁸O is optically thin nearly everywhere, increasing in opacity towards star-forming cores but not beyond  τ₁₈∼ 0.9  . Assuming the ¹²CO gas is optically thick, we compute its excitation temperature, T _ex (around 8–30 K), which has little correlation with estimates of the dust temperature.     

Optimal water depth management on river-fed National Wildlife Refuges in a changing climate

The prairie pothole region (PPR) in the north-central United States and south-central Canada constitutes the most important waterfowl breeding area in North America. Projected long-term changes in precipitation and temperature may alter the drivers of waterfowl abundance: wetland availability and emergent vegetation cover. Previous studies have focused on isolated wetland dynamics, but the implications of changing precipitation on managed, river-fed wetlands have not been addressed. Using a structured decision making (SDM) approach, we derived optimal water management actions for 20 years at four river-fed National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in North and South Dakota under contrasting increasing/decreasing (+/?0.4 %/year) inflow scenarios derived from empirical trends. Refuge pool depth is manipulated by control structures. Optimal management involves setting control structure heights that have the highest probability of providing a desired mix of waterfowl habitat, given refuge capacities and inflows. We found optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge were essentially the same under increasing and decreasing inflow trends of 0.4 %/year over the next 20 years. Results suggest managed pools in the NWRs receive large inflows relative to their capacities. Hence, water availability does not constrain management; pool bathymetry and management tactics can be greater constraints on attaining management objectives than climate-mediated inflow. We present time-dependent optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge, which are resilient to the non-stationary precipitation scenarios we examined. Managers can use this information to provide a desired mixture of wildlife habitats, and to re-assess management objectives in reserves where pool bathymetry prevents attaining the currently stated objectives.     

Rapid colorimetric determination of phosphorus in geochemical survey samples

A colorimetric method for the determination of phosphorus in batches of geochemical survey samples is described. The powdered material is digested with a nitric-perchloric acid mixture, excess of acid is evaporated off and the residue is leached with water. Aliquots of the leachate are treated with vanadomolybdate reagent and the yellow phosphorus complex is extracted into isobutyl methyl ketone. The colour in the organic phase, which is stable for many days, is matched against a series of similarly prepared standards. Iron, other coloured ions, and titanium do not interfere. Standard deviations of ±0.02% about a mean value of 0.20% P₂ O₅ and ±0.4% about a mean of 11.6% P₂ O₅ were obtained. At least 40 powdered samples may be analysed per working day per person.     

Photoionized Regions Around Supernova Remnants

The radiation produced by the gas cooling behind a fast supernova remnant shock in the interstellar medium is capable of ionizing the undisturbed medium ahead of the shock wave. In this work I investigate the nonequilibrium evolution of these photoionized precursor regions by means of radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of supernova remnant evolution. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Extrasolar Analogues to the Kuiper Belt

Debris disks are found around some 15% of main sequencestars and their dust is thought to be continuallyreplenished in collisions between planetesimals inextrasolar Kuiper belts.While they were discovered in 1984 by IRAS, it is onlywith more recent imaging that their true nature has beenrevealed. This paper discusses recent debris disk images andtheir impact on our understanding of extrasolar systems.Importantly these images confirm the extrasolar Kuiper belthypothesis for most (but not all) debris diskcandidates and show that the planetesimals within thesedisks must have grown to at least a few km.Asymmetries in imaged disk structures also provide informationabout the planetary systems orbiting inside these planetesimalbelts. The impact of debris disk studies on our understandingof the evolution of our own Kuiper belt, as well as theirpotential to solve puzzles such as the origin of the missingmass and the outer edge of the Kuiper belt, is alsodiscussed.     

Water quality in the Great Barrier Reef region: responses of mangrove, seagrass and macroalgal communities

Marine plants colonise several interconnected ecosystems in the Great Barrier Reef region including tidal wetlands, seagrass meadows and coral reefs. Water quality in some coastal areas is declining from human activities. Losses of mangrove and other tidal wetland communities are mostly the result of reclamation for coastal development of estuaries, e.g. for residential use, port infrastructure or marina development, and result in river bank destabilisation, deterioration of water clarity and loss of key coastal marine habitat. Coastal seagrass meadows are characterized by small ephemeral species. They are disturbed by increased turbidity after extreme flood events, but generally recover. There is no evidence of an overall seagrass decline or expansion. High nutrient and substrate availability and low grazing pressure on nearshore reefs have lead to changed benthic communities with high macroalgal abundance. Conservation and management of GBR macrophytes and their ecosystems is hampered by scarce ecological knowledge across macrophyte community types.