Interannual Climate Variability of the Past Millennium from Simulations

The interannual variability of global temperature and precipitation during the last millennium is analyzed using the results of ten coupled climate models participating in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3. It is found that large temperature(precipitation) variability is most dominant at high latitudes(tropical monsoon regions), and the seasonal magnitudes are greater than the annual mean. Significant multi-decadal-scale changes exist throughout the whole period for the zonal mean of both temperature and precipitation variability, while their long-term trends are indistinctive. The volcanic forcings correlate well with the temperature variability at midlatitudes, indicating possible leading drivers for the interannual time scale climate change.     

雷达定量估测降水的亮带自动消除改进方法

层状云降水中,0 ℃层融化效应会引起雷达反射率因子局部增大,若不进行订正,则会高估雷达估测的降水.本文提出一种基于新一代天气雷达反射率因子垂直廓线的0 ℃层亮带自动识别与订正算法,以减小因亮带造成的降水高估.本研究首先对降水类型进行分类,在SHY95的基础上增加了垂直方向的反射率因子三维特征,避免亮带的反射率因子高值区被误识别为对流云区;其次,在层状云区识别出一个可能的亮带影响区,在其中查找亮带,采用旋转坐标系法精确的识别亮带的顶、底高度;最后,利用最小二乘法拟合亮带上、下层的斜率,平滑垂直廓线(VPR,Vertical Profile of Reflectivity)的显著突出部分.将该方法应用于北京地区2010—2011年10次包含亮带的降水过程,得到的亮带订正后的均方根误差E_RMS、平均绝对误差E_RMA、平均相对误差B_RM值较初值均有显著减小(分别减小1.538 mm,0.417和0.468).结果表明,该方法能够有效地识别与订正亮带,使得定量测量降水精度有所提高.     

一次江淮强暴雨过程的湿有效能量及其收支特征

利用高分辨率的WRF模式模拟结果,采用基于格点的湿有效能量计算方案,对一次江淮梅雨期强暴雨发生发展过程中湿有效能量的时空演变特征进行分析,并从定性和定量的角度探讨了能量方程转换项、平流项和垂直输送项对强暴雨过程中湿有效能量的输送和积聚作用。结果表明,强暴雨过程中湿有效能量的时空特征与强暴雨发生发展具有良好的对应关系,对流层低层800 h Pa湿有效能量40×104J·h Pa-1·m-2的等值线范围和该等值线伸展至500 h Pa附近可作为判断强暴雨发生的必要条件。暴雨发生前2~3 h的能量快速积聚及其对暴雨区移向的引导,对强暴雨预报具有良好的指示作用。湿有效能量的水平和垂直输送及转换确保了能量的积聚和对流层中层能量的增加,为强暴雨的发生和维持提供了充足的能量。     

北京“7.21”特大暴雨云降水结构及云雨转化特征

利用多普勒雷达资料、FY-2E静止卫星和MODIS极轨卫星反演产品,研究2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨的云降水结构及云雨转化特征。结果表明:降水过程三阶段的云降水垂直结构不同。1)在暖区对流降水阶段,降水以暖雨机制启动,雨滴在暖区存在深厚的碰并增长过程,暖雨过程对降水起主要贡献。随着云体的发展,冷雨过程加剧。T-Re分析表明,-10℃层以下云滴凝结碰并显著,-10℃层以上为深厚的冰相增长带,云顶以冰相大粒子为主,云水向雨水转化迅速。2)在锋面对流降水阶段,降水系统为高度组织化的"低质心"强降水液态MCC(Mesoscale Convective Complex)系统。回波强度在冰水混合层增长较快,冻结层是此阶段成雨微物理的关键层。降水粒子在暖云区碰并增长较快,而蒸发或破碎过程并不显著。3)在锋后降水阶段,0℃层附近冰晶粒子与云水的碰并增长较为明显。前期降水存在明显的雨滴蒸发过程。随着云体的发展,暖区云水含量较少,降水粒子不能有效碰并增长。     

CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND EASTERN ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON SYSTEM BASED ON FUZZY SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL INVERSION FORECAST

Based on the adaptive network fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), methods to filter out the noise of impact factors from the main signal are discussed. Focusing on the abnormal weather conditions in 2010, we use the delay-relevant method to analyze the five members of the summer monsoon system that had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies from the observational data. ANFIS is suitable for research and simulation of subtropical highs that are difficult to describe accurately with dynamics, allowing the effect of five factors on the subtropical high anomalies to be examined. Our results show that the Mascarene cold high, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies. Diagnostic analysis, with genetic algorithms (GA) and dynamical reconstruction theory, reconstructed the nonlinear dynamical model of the subtropical high and its main factors objectively and accurately from the sequence of observations in 2010. Furthermore, a dynamically extended forecast experiment is performed. The forecasts for the subtropical high area index, the Mascarene cold high index, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough index all show a strong short-term effect over less than 25 days. The forecasting trend is accurate, and the error rate is no more than 7%. Our results provide new insight and methods for research on the association between the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon system, and for the prediction of the western Pacific subtropical high index.     

A DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF AIR TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MODE OVER CHINA IN 2009/2010 WINTER BASED ON GENERALIZED EQUILIBRIUM FEEDBACK ASSESSMENT (GEFA) METHOD

By using the observed monthly mean data over 160 stations of China and NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, the generalized equilibrium feedback assessment(GEFA) method, combined with the methods of EOF analysis, correlation and composite analysis, is used to explore the influence of different SST modes on a wintertime air temperature pattern in which it is cold in the northeast and warm in the southwest in China. The results show that the 2009/2010 winter air temperature oscillation mode between the northern and southern part of China is closely related to the corresponding sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) and its associated atmospheric circulation anomalies. Exhibiting warming in Northeast China and cooling in Southwest China, the mode is significantly forced by the El Nio mode and the North Atlantic SSTA mode, which have three poles. Under the influence of SSTA modes, the surface northerly flow transported cold air to North and Northeast China, resulting in low temperatures in the regions. Meanwhile, the mid-latitude westerlies intensify and the polar cold air stays in high latitudes and cannot affect the Southwest China, resulting in the warming there.     

济宁市非煤矿山地质环境影响综合评价

济宁市非煤矿产资源丰富,高强度的开采利用给矿区地质环境保护与治理带来巨大挑战。文章分析研究了济宁市非煤矿山地质环境问题的类型、分布、危害程度等基本特征,分别选用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法进行矿山地质环境影响程度评价,探讨两种评价结果的差异,综合划分影响等级,为开展矿山地质环境保护与矿山地质环境问题治理工作提供前提与依据。     

卫星激光测距的电控系统设计与实现

给出的卫星激光测距的二轴系统实现了通过软件控制望远镜coude光路调整、接收系统SPAD和APD的自动切换、视场光阑大小的自动调节、以及发射光束指向的精确控制。该系统是基于MPC07运动控制卡,通过人机交互界面进行实时控制,旨在实现不同功能的调节,提高卫星激光测距的自动化程度。详细介绍了该系统的硬件组成、技术指标及软件工作方式。     

Stable Isotopes and Halogen Geochemistry of the Huayuan Carbonate-hosted Pb-Zn Ore District, South China: Implications for the Salt Source of Ore-forming Fluids

The Huayuan Pb-Zn ore district in China, located in western Hunan Province, is a giant carbonate-hosted Pb-Zn ore district. The source of ore-forming brines in this ore district remains poorly constrained. Whether the highly saline brines are derived from evaporated seawater or dissolved evaporates continues to be intensely debated. Carbonate minerals associated with Pb-Zn mineralization have δ13CV-PDB and δ18OV-SMOW values ranging from ?5.55‰ to +1.35‰ (mean value of ?0.69‰; n = 14) and +16.28‰ to +25.05‰ (mean value of +20.22‰; n = 14), respectively. This indicates that carbonate minerals are dominantly formed from dissolved ore-hosted carbonate rocks. The δ34S values of sulfides range from +20.2‰ to +36.8‰, with an average value of +30.0‰ (n = 27). These results suggest that sulfur is predominantly derived from the thermochemical sulfate reduction of marine sulfate. The crush-leach analyzed solute data of fluid inclusions in sphalerite show the ore-forming fluids have Cl/Br molar ratios range from 118 to 384, and Na/Br molar ratios from 39 to 160 (n = 8). These Cl/Br ratios of hydrothermal fluid are much lower than those of seawater (657 to 564), but are consistent with bittern brines through early halite precipitation. We propose that ore-forming fluids are mainly derived from evaporitic basin brines, which leached base metals from the basement and/or country rocks. The brine then migrated to the basin margins through clastic rocks of basement and then precipitated sul?des by thermochemical sulfate reduction.     

利用AIRS观测资料进行红外高光谱大气探测能力试验的研究

利用EOS Aqua卫星平台上搭载的光栅式高光谱分辨率大气红外探测仪器AIRS（Atmospheric Infrared Sounder）的实际观测资料，采用经验正交函数展开法（特征向量法）进行了大气温度、湿度廓线的反演误差敏感性试验研究。试验内容包括光谱覆盖、通道覆盖、通道宽度等。通过这些试验，研究在中国现有的经济、技术条件下要达到在对流层1km气层温度、湿度分别小于1K和20％的反演精度和垂直分辨率所应该具备的光谱通道特征，为发展中国自己的红外高光谱分辨率探测技术提供科学依据。试验计算结果表明，基于中国现有的经济和技术基础，发展具有100个左右的光谱通道，通道宽度为2-4个波数的干涉式红外大气探测仪器（比中国目前FY-3初期的滤光片式红外分光计的光谱波段宽度减小3-4倍），可明显改善大气参数反演精度，基本满足现阶段使用要求。