Prediction of wave height based on half-cycle excursion analysis

This paper presents a method to evaluate statistical properties of half-cycle excursions including extreme values. The probability density function for half-cycle excursions for an arbitrarily given wave spectrum is developed based on the Gaussian assumption. The results of numerical computations carried out using wave data obtained during hurricane Camille show that the half-cycle probability density function agrees well with the histogram constructed from the data. The extreme wave height for design consideration computed with risk parameter 0.01 is approximately 20% greater than the observed extreme height.     

Formation of the mid-fifteenth century Kuwae caldera (Vanuatu) by an initial hydroclastic and subsequent ignimbritic eruption

In the mid-fifteenth century, one of the largest eruptions of the last 10 000 years occurred in the Central New Hebrides arc, forming the Kuwae caldera (12x6 km). This eruption followed a late maar phase in the pre-caldera edifice, responsible for a series of alternating hydromagmatic deposits and airfall lapilli layers. Tuffs related to caldera formation ( 120 m of deposits on a composite section from the caldera wall) were emitted during two main ignimbritic phases associated with two additional hydromagmatic episodes. The lower hydromagmatic tuffs from the precaldera maar phase are mainly basaltic andesite in composition, but clasts show compositions ranging from 48 to 60% SiO₂. The unwelded and welded ashflow deposits from the ignimbritic phases and the associated intermediate and upper hydromagmatic deposits also show a wide compositional range (60–73% SiO₂), but are dominantly dacitic. This broad compositional range is thought to be due to crystal fractionation. The striking evolution from one eruptive style (hydromagmatic) to the other (magmatic with emission of a large volume of ignimbrites) which occurred either over the tuff series as a whole, or at the beginning of each ignimbritic phase, is the most impressive characteristic of the caldera-forming event. This strongly suggests triggering of the main eruptive phases by magma-water interaction. A three-step model of caldera formation is presented: (1) moderate hydromagmatic (sequences HD 1–4) and magmatic (fallout deposits) activity from a central vent, probably over a period of months or years, affected an area slightly wider than the present caldera. At the end of this stage, intense seismic activity and extrusion of differentiated magma outside the caldera area occurred; (2) unhomogenized dacite was released during a hydromagmatic episode (HD 5). This was immediately followed by two major pyroclastic flows (PFD 1 and 2). The vents spread and intense magma-water interaction at the beginning of this stage decreased rapidly as magma discharge increased. Subsequent collapse of the caldera probably commenced in the southeastern sector of the caldera; (3) dacitic welded tuffs were emplaced during a second main phase (WFD 1–5). At the beginning of this phase, magma-water interaction continued, producing typical hydromagmatic deposits (HD 6). Caldera collapse extended to the northern part of the caldera. Previous C¹⁴ dates and records of explosive volcanism in ice from the south Pole show that the climactic phase of this event occurred in 1452 A.D.     

Performance of the complete travel-time equation of state at simultaneous high pressure and temperature

The complete travel-time equation of state (CT-EOS) is presented by utilizing thermodynamics relations, such as; $$K_T = K_S (1 + \alpha \gamma T)^{ - 1} , \gamma = \frac{{\alpha K_S }}{{\rho C_P }}, \left. {\frac{{\partial C_P }}{{\partial P}}} \right)_T = - \frac{T}{\rho }\left[ {\alpha ^2 + \left. {\frac{{\partial \alpha }}{{\partial T}}} \right)_P } \right], etc.$$ The CT-EOS enables us to analyze ultrasonic experimental data under simultaneous high pressure and high temperature without introducing any assumption, as long as the density, or thermal expansivity, and heat capacity are also available as functions of temperature at zero pressure. The performance of the CT-EOS was examined by using synthesized travel-time data with random noise of 10^?5 and 10^?4 amplitude up to 4 GPa and 1500 K. Those test conditions are to be met with the newly developed GHz interferometry in a gas medium piston cylinder apparatus. The results suggest that the combination of the CT-EOS and accurate experimental data (10^?4 in travel time) can determine thermodynamic and elastic parameters, as well as their derivatives with unprecedented accuracy, yielding second-order pressure derivatives (?² M/?P ²) of the elastic moduli as well as the temperature derivatives of their first-order pressure derivatives ?² M/?P?T). The completeness of the CT-EOS provides an unambiguous criterion to evaluate the compatibility of empirical EOS with experimental data. Furthermore because of this completeness, it offers the possibility of a new and absolute pressure calibration when X-ray (i.e., volume) measurements are made simultaneously with the travel-time measurements.     

Dynamical evolution of NEAs: Close encounters, secular perturbations and resonances

We discuss the main mechanisms affecting the dynamical evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by analyzing the results of three numerical integrations over 1 Myr of the NEA (4179) Toutatis. In the first integration the only perturbing planet is the Earth. So the evolution is dominated by close encounters and looks like a random walk in semimajor axis and a correlated random walk in eccentricity, keeping almost constant the perihelion distance and the Tisserand invariant. In the second integration Jupiter and Saturn are present instead of the Earth, and the 3/1 (mean motion) and v ₆ (secular) resonances substantially change the eccentricity but not the semimajor axis. The third, most realistic, integration including all the three planets together shows a complex interplay of effects, with close encounters switching the orbit between different resonant states and no approximate conservation of the Tisserand invariant. This shows that simplified 3-body or 4-body models cannot be used to predict the typical evolution patterns and time scales of NEAs, and in particular that resonances provide some fast-track dynamical routes from low-eccentricity to very eccentric, planet-crossing orbits.On leave from the Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Via Buonarroti 2, 56127 Pisa, Italy, thanks to the G. Colombo fellowships of the European Space Agency.     

Narrow-line dynamics in Seyfert and starburst nuclei

Rotating disks and expanding supershells of ionized gas are supposed to be kinematical components essential for the formation of emission-like profiles from starburst nuclei and the narrow-line regions of Seyfert galaxies. Simple models predict a few typical features of line profiles by which disks may be recognized.A giant supershell is identified SE of the nucleus of the starburst galaxy NGC 253. We suggest that the variously reported outflow cones in Seyfert nuclei are also induced by superbubble dynamics. Observations of NGC 4151 are shown to be consistent with this scenario.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

War and the commons: Assessing the changing politics of violence, access and entitlements in Sri Lanka

There are two antagonistic, but equally influential traditions in the study of the nexus between resource use and violent conflict. One works through a Malthusian frame linking resource scarcity with violence, the other school of thought establishes a nexus between resource abundance and the incentives to use violence for rent monopolisation in a political economy of war or markets of violence. The tacit essentialism inherent in both schools of thought has increasingly come under critical scrutiny by geographers and anthropologists. To escape such essentialism requires a more detailed study of the dynamism of the political economy of (civil) war and its spatial dynamics, the political geographies of violence. In this paper, we study endowments and entitlements of people depending on common-pool or open-access resources in war-affected areas of Sri Lanka. Rural spaces in the war-affected areas became both a strategic retreat for fighters and an important common-pool resource on which a large part of the rural populace depended for their survival. Our research illustrates how the political geographies of war affect access regimes and entitlements to common-pool resources and thereby confine the livelihood opportunities of resource users. These dynamics of the political economy of war cross different scales and go beyond simple place-based struggles, for they are rooted in broader spatial dynamics of warfare creating place-space tensions in the sense that spatial dynamics of military control impinge changing access regimes upon specific places.     

Tripartite climate reversal in Central Europe 5600-5300 years ago

The history of variations in water level of Lake Constance, as reconstructed from sediment and pollen analysis of a sediment sequence from the archaeological site of Arbon-Bleiche 3, shows an abrupt rise in lake level dendrochronologically dated to 5375 yr ago (5320 yr relative to AD 1950). This event, paralleled by the destruction of the Neolithic village by fire, provoked the abandonment of this prehistoric lake-shore location established in the former shallow bay of Arbon-Bleiche, and was the last of a series of three episodes of successively higher lake level, the first occurring at 5600-5500 cal yr B.P. The dendrochronologically dated rise event was synchronous with an abrupt increase in atmospheric ¹⁴C. This supports the hypothesis of an abrupt climate change forced by varying solar activity. Moreover, the three successive episodes of higher lake level between 5600 and 5300 cal yr B.P. at Arbon-Bleiche 3 coincided with climatic cooling and/or changes in moisture conditions in various regions of both hemispheres. This period corresponds to the mid-Holocene climate transition (onset of the Neoglaciation) and suggests inter-hemispheric linkages for the climate variations recorded at Arbon-Bleiche 3. This mid-Holocene climate reversal may have resulted from complex interactions between changes in orbital forcing, ocean circulation and solar activity. Finally, despite different seasonal hydrological regimes, the similarities between lake-level records from Lake Constance and from Jurassian lakes over the mid-Holocene period point to time scale as a crucial factor in considering the possible impact of climate change on environments.     

Seismic lamination and anisotropy of the Lower Continental Crust

Seismic lamination in the lower crust associated with marked anisotropy has been observed at various locations. Three of these locations were investigated by specially designed experiments in the near vertical and in the wide-angle range, that is the Urach and the Black Forrest area, both belonging to the Moldanubian, a collapsed Variscan terrane in southern Germany, and in the Donbas Basin, a rift inside the East European (Ukrainian) craton. In these three cases, a firm relationship between lower crust seismic lamination and anisotropy is found. There are more cases of lower-crustal lamination and anisotropy, e.g. from the Basin and Range province (western US) and from central Tibet, not revealed by seismic wide-angle measurements, but by teleseismic receiver function studies with a P–S conversion at the Moho. Other cases of lamination and anisotropy are from exhumed lower crustal rocks in Calabria (southern Italy), and Val Sesia and Val Strona (Ivrea area, Northern Italy). We demonstrate that rocks in the lower continental crust, apart from differing in composition, differ from the upper mantle both in terms of seismic lamination (observed in the near-vertical range) and in the type of anisotropy. Compared to upper mantle rocks exhibiting mainly orthorhombic symmetry, the symmetry of the rocks constituting the lower crust is either axial or orthorhombic and basically a result of preferred crystallographic orientation of major minerals (biotite, muscovite, hornblende). We argue that the generation of seismic lamination and anisotropy in the lower crust is a consequence of the same tectonic process, that is, ductile deformation in a warm and low-viscosity lower crust. This process takes place preferably in areas of extension. Heterogeneous rock units are formed that are generally felsic in composition, but that contain intercalations of mafic intrusions. The latter have acted as heat sources and provide the necessary seismic impedance contrasts. The observed seismic anisotropy is attributed to lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of major minerals, in particular of mica and hornblende, but also of olivine. A transversely isotropic symmetry system, such as expected for sub-horizontal layering, is found in only half of the field studies. Azimuthal anisotropy is encountered in the rest of the cases. This indicates differences in the horizontal components of tectonic strain, which finally give rise to differences in the evolution of the rock fabric.     

Effects of magnetic interactions in anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility: Models, experiments and implications for igneous rock fabrics quantification

Besides granites of the ilmenite series, in which the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) is mainly controlled by paramagnetic minerals, the AMS of igneous rocks is commonly interpreted as the result of the shape-preferred orientation of unequant ferromagnetic grains. In a few instances, the anisotropy due to the distribution of ferromagnetic grains, irrespective of their shape, has also been proposed as an important AMS source. Former analytical models that consider infinite geometry of identical and uniformly magnetized and coaxial particles confirm that shape fabric may be overcome by dipolar contributions if neighboring grains are close enough to each other to magnetically interact. On these bases we present and experimentally validate a two-grain macroscopic numerical model in which each grain carries its own magnetic anisotropy, volume, orientation and location in space. Compared with analytical predictions and available experiments, our results allow to list and quantify the factors that affect the effects of magnetic interactions. In particular, we discuss the effects of (i) the infinite geometry used in the analytical models, (ii) the intrinsic shape anisotropy of the grains, (iii) the relative orientation in space of the grains, and (iv) the spatial distribution of grains with a particular focus on the inter-grain distance distribution. Using documented case studies, these findings are summarized and discussed in the framework of the generalized total AMS tensor recently introduced by Cañon-Tapia (Cañon-Tapia, E., 2001. Factors affecting the relative importance of shape and distribution anisotropy in rocks: theory and experiments. Tectonophysics, 340, 117–131.). The most important result of our work is that analytical models far overestimate the role of magnetic interaction in rock fabric quantification. Considering natural rocks as an assemblage of interacting and non-interacting grains, and that the effects of interaction are reduced by (i) the finite geometry of the interacting clusters, (ii) the relative orientation between interacting grains, (iii) their heterogeneity in orientation, shape and bulk susceptibility, and (iv) their inter-distance distribution, we reconcile analytical models and experiments with real case studies that minimize the role of magnetic interaction onto the measured AMS. Limitations of our results are discussed and guidelines are provided for the use of AMS in geological interpretation of igneous rock fabrics where magnetic interactions are likely to occur.