Resonant trapped gravity waves and turbulent patches in an inversion layer

Instability of resonant trapped gravity waves is proposed as the mechanism responsible for the creation of turbulent patches in the inversion capping a well developed convective layer. The plume circulation of the convective layer results in a periodic forcing at the base of the inversion layer; trapped gravity waves in resonance with such forcing are considered. Good agreement with experimental results is obtained.Now at the Istituto di Fisica della Università di Urbino Via S. Chiara 61100 Urbino (Ps.) Italy.     

Ground Motion Zoning of Santiago de Cuba: An Approach by SH Waves Modelling

— The expected ground motion in Santiago de Cuba basin from earthquakes which occurred in the Oriente fault zone is studied. Synthetic SH-waves seismograms have been calculated along four profiles in the basin by the hybrid approach (modal summation for the path source-profile and finite differences for the profile) for a maximum frequency of 1 Hz. The response spectra ratio (RSR) has been determined in 49 sites, distributed along all considered profiles with a spacing of 900 m. The corresponding RSR versus frequency curves have been classified using a logical-combinatorial algorithm. The results of the classification, in combination with the uppermost geological setting (geotechnical information and geological geometry of the subsoil) are used for the seismic zoning of the city. Three different main zones are identified, and a small sector characterized by major resonance effects, due to the particular structural conditions. Each zone is characterized in terms of its expected ground motion parameters for the most probable strong earthquake (M_S=7), and for the maximum possible (M_S=8).     

Seismic microzoning from synthetic ground motion parameters: case study, Santiago de Cuba

Synthetic seismograms (P-SV and SH waves) have been calculated along six profiles in Santiago de Cuba basin, with a cutoff frequency of 5 Hz, by using a hybrid approach (modal summation for a regional 1D structure plus finite differences for a local 2D structure embedded in the first). They correspond to a scenario earthquake of M_S=7 that may occur in Oriente fault zone, directly south of the city. As initial data for a seismic microzoning, the characterisation of earthquake effects has been made considering several relative (2D/1D) quantities (PGDR, PGVR, PGAR, DGAR, I_AR—ratios of peak ground values of displacement, velocity and acceleration, and of design ground acceleration and Arias intensity-, etc.) and functions representative of the ground motion characteristics in soil (2D) with respect to bedrock (1D). The functions are the response spectra ratio RSR(f), already routinely used in this kind of work, and the elastic energy input ratio E_IR(f), defined, for the first time, in this paper. These data, sampled at 115 sites within all the profiles have been classified in two steps, using logical combinatory algorithms: connected components and compact sets. In the first step, from the original ground motion parameters or functions extracted from the synthetic seismograms, nine sets have been classified and the partial results show the spatial distribution of the soil behaviour as a function of the component of motion. In the second step, the results of the classification of the nine sets have been used as input for a further classification that shows a spatial distribution of sites with a quasi-homogeneous integral ground motion behaviour. By adding the available geological surface data, a microzoning scheme of Santiago de Cuba basin has been obtained.     

Correlation Between Local Slip Rate and Local High-frequency Seismic Radiation in an Earthquake Fault

For any earthquake, the slipping fault and the source of high-frequency seismic waves, by and large, coincide. On a more local scale, however, the areas of high seismic slip rate and of increased high-frequency radiation output (seismic luminosity) need not match. To study in some detail how slip rate and seismic luminosity are interrelated, a systematic study is performed that uses 251 records of teleseismic P waves from 23 intermediate-depth earthquakes of magnitude 6.8 and above. From a broadband trace we extract two time histories: (1) displacement and (2) 0.5–2.5 Hz band-passed and squared velocity, or ``HF power', and calculate correlation coefficient, ρ between the two. To reduce the bias related to formation of P coda, a special procedure is applied to data. We estimated the average value ρ = 0.52 (range of event averages 0.35 to 0.65) for the correlation coefficient between the radiated time histories for displacement and ``HF power', which is considerably below the ``ideal' value of unity. We argue that the same or even lower value characterizes the degree of slip rate - seismic luminosity correlation at the fault. Two factors may contribute to the revealed decorrelation: (1) random fluctuations of observed HF power (inevitable for a signal with a limited bandwidth), and (2) the genuine mismatch of slip rate and mean luminosity. We show that these factors, acting separately, would result in the ρ values equal to, correspondingly, 0.72 and 0.80. We also show that genuine decorrelation is statistically significant. We conclude that the observed values of ρ indicate genuine differences between the distributions of the slip rate and the seismic luminosity over the fault area. These results provide important constraints both for the accurate wide-band simulation of strong ground motion and for theoretical dynamic source models.     

Source Parameters of Weak Crustal Earthquakes of the Vrancea Region from Short-period Waveform Inversion

High-frequency records of nine low magnitude shallow earthquakes of the Vrancea (Romania) seismic region are inverted for the seismic moment tensor (MT). An approach is suggested regarding how to obtain at least a rough estimate of the MT when the information on the structure of the crust is poor. Here simple 1-D layered models are used in the Greens function synthesis despite the fact that the structure of the region is undoubtedly very complex. Different 1-D models were used for different source-station paths to approximate lateral variations. Record of a station located on a ray path which crosses a structure differing substantially from a 1-D model may however bias the retrieved MT essentially. Therefore, we did not collectively process all records, but subsets of stations separately. We check the consistency of the MTs resulting from these individual bootstrap solutions, and reject those which differ substantially, assuming that this is due to the oversimplification of the forward modeling. Thereafter, the averaged moment tensor yielded by the consistent subsets is accepted. Moreover, the distribution of the T, N and P axes from the moment tensors used for averaging provides a rough estimate of their reliability.Following this simplistic procedure, we found seven acceptably constrained solutions among nine events processed. Their P axes are compared with the general trend of the stress in the area: three comply with it, the others should be attributed to the complex stress field active in the region.Acknowledgment This research has been made possible by MURST (40% and 60%), by UNESCO-IGCP project 414 Realistic Modelling of Seismic Input for Megacities and Large Urban Areas and NATO SfP 972266. Partial support issued from the Grant Agency of Czech Rep. (Grant 205/02/0383) and from the National Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation of Romania (Grant 6185 GR/2000).     

Three Decades of Seismic Activity at Mt. Vesuvius: 1972–2000

We analyse the seismic catalogue of the local earthquakes which occurred at Somma-Vesuvius volcano in the past three decades (1972–2000). The seismicity in this period can be described as composed of a background level, characterised by a low and rather uniform rate of energy release and by sporadic periods of increased seismic activity. Such relatively intense seismicity periods are characterised by energy rates and magnitudes progressively increasing in the critical periods. The analysis of the b value in the whole period evidences a well-defined pattern, with values of b progressively decreasing, from about 1.8 at the beginning of the considered period, to about 1.0 at present. This steady variation indicates an increasing dynamics in the volcanic system. Within this general trend it is possible to identify a substructure in the time sequence of the seismic events, formed by the alternating episodes of quiescence and activity. The analysis of the source moment tensor of the largest earthquakes shows that the processes at the seismic source are generally not consistent with simple double-couples, but that they are compatible with isotropic components, mostly indicating volumetric expansion. These components are shown to be statistically significant for most of the analysed events. Such focal mechanisms can be interpreted as the effect of explosion phenomena, possibly related to volatile exsolution from the crystallising magma. The availability of a reduced amount of high quality data necessary for the inversion of the source moment tensor, the still limited period of systematic observation of Vesuvius micro-earthquakes and, above all, the absence of eruptive events during such interval of time, cannot obviously permit the outlining of any formal premonitory signal. Nevertheless, the analysis reported in this paper indicates a progressively evolving dynamics, characterised by a generally increasing trend in the seismic activity in the volcanic system and by a significant volumetric component of recent major events, thus posing serious concern for a future evolution towards eruptive activity.     

Socio-hydrological modelling of flood-risk dynamics: comparing the resilience of green and technological systems

This work aims to provide a dynamic assessment of flood risk and community resilience by explicitly accounting for variable human behaviour, e.g. risk-taking and awareness-raising attitudes. We consider two different types of socio-hydrological systems: green systems, whereby societies deal with risk only via non-structural measures, and technological systems, whereby risk is dealt with also by structural measures, such as levees. A stylized model of human–flood interactions is first compared to real-world data collected at two test sites (People’s Republic of Bangladesh and the city of Rome, Italy) and then used to explore plausible trajectories of flood risk. The results show that flood risk in technological systems tends to be significantly lower than in green systems. However, technological systems may undergo catastrophic events, which lead to much higher losses. Furthermore, green systems prove to be more resilient than technological ones, which makes them more capable of withstanding environmental and social changes.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Effects of spatial wind inhomogeneity and turbulence anisotropy on circulation in an elongated basin: A simplified analytical solution

The response of a closed basin to wind forcing has been studied extensively, but the role of turbulence anisotropy coupled with spatial wind inhomogeneity has never been considered explicitly. An analytical solution is presented for steady state hydrodynamics, considering the central part of a constant-depth, elongated basin with a laterally varying wind, and a homogeneous, yet anisotropic, eddy viscosity tensor. The solution is derived both for a single-layer and for a two-layer basin, which is representative of a stratified lake with a well-developed thermocline. Since the focus is on the short-term barotropic reaction to wind forcing, which determines the type of lake circulation, baroclinic effects are neglected as a first approximation. In this case, the development of planimetric (depth-averaged) circulation superimposed on circulation in the vertical plane can be determined as a function of wind lateral variation and a few dimensionless parameters. The relevance of such an analytical solution is twofold. Firstly, the knowledge of the prevailing circulation can help in the choice of the best type of numerical model (three-dimensional vs. two-dimensional, depth- or lateral-averaged). Secondly, it shows the importance of correct estimates of both vertical and horizontal eddy viscosity, whereas the latter is not usually considered as an important parameter in lake hydrodynamics modeling.