An earthquake scenario for the microzonation of Sofia and the vulnerability of structures designed by use of the Eurocodes

The study of the site effects and the microzonation of a part of the metropolitan Sofia, based on the modelling of seismic ground motion along three cross-sections are performed. Realistic synthetic strong motion waveforms are computed for scenario earthquakes (M=7) applying a hybrid modelling method, based on the modal summation technique and finite differences scheme. The synthesized ground motion time histories are source and site specific. The site amplification is determined in terms of response spectra ratio (RSR). A suite of time histories and quantities of earthquake engineering interest are provided. The results of this study constitute a “database” that describes the ground shaking of the urban area. A case study of experiment-based assessment of vulnerability of a cast-in-situ single storey, industrial, reinforced concrete frame, designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8 is presented. The main characteristics of damage index and storey drift are discussed for the purposes of microzonation.     

A review of low‐cost space‐borne data for flood modelling: topography,flood extent and water level

During the last two decades, remote sensing data have led to tremendous progress in advancing flood inundation modelling. In particular, low‐cost space‐borne data can be invaluable for large‐scale flood studies in data‐scarce areas. Various satellite products yield valuable information such as land surface elevation, flood extent and water level, which could potentially contribute to various flood studies. An increasing number of research studies have been dedicated to exploring those low‐cost data towards building, calibration and evaluation, and remote‐sensed information assimilation into hydraulic models. This paper aims at reviewing these recent scientific efforts on the integration of low‐cost space‐borne remote sensing data with flood modelling. Potentials and limitations of those data in flood modelling are discussed. This paper also introduces the future satellite missions and anticipates their likely impacts in flood modelling. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply

2020 is the year of wildfire records. California experienced its three largest fires early in its fire season. The Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, burned over 20% of its surface. More than 18 million hectares of forest and bushland burned during the 2019–2020 fire season in Australia, killing 33 people, destroying nearly 2500 homes, and endangering many endemic species. The direct cost of damages is being counted in dozens of billion dollars, but the indirect costs on water-related ecosystem services and benefits could be equally expensive, with impacts lasting for decades. In Australia, the extreme precipitation (“200 mm day −1 in several location”) that interrupted the catastrophic wildfire season triggered a series of watershed effects from headwaters to areas downstream. The increased runoff and erosion from burned areas disrupted water supplies in several locations. These post-fire watershed hazards via source water contamination, flash floods, and mudslides can represent substantial, systemic long-term risks to drinking water production, aquatic life, and socio-economic activity. Scenarios similar to the recent event in Australia are now predicted to unfold in the Western USA. This is a new reality that societies will have to live with as uncharted fire activity, water crises, and widespread human footprint collide all-around of the world. Therefore, we advocate for a more proactive approach to wildfire-watershed risk governance in an effort to advance and protect water security. We also argue that there is no easy solution to reducing this risk and that investments in both green (i.e., natural) and grey (i.e., built) infrastructure will be necessary. Further, we propose strategies to combine modern data analytics with existing tools for use by water and land managers worldwide to leverage several decades worth of data and knowledge on post-fire hydrology.     

Dielectric constant estimation of the uppermost Basal Unit layer in the martian Boreales Scopuli region

An electromagnetic inversion model has been applied to echoes from the subsurface sounding Shallow Radar (SHARAD) to retrieve the dielectric properties of the uppermost Basal Unit (BU) beneath the North Polar Layered Deposits of Mars. SHARAD data have been carefully selected to satisfy the assumption of the inversion model which requires a stratigraphy consisting of mostly plane parallel layers. The resulting values of the dielectric constant have been interpreted in terms of a variable percentage of dust in an ice–dust mixture through the use of a mixing model for dielectric properties. The resulting dust content exceeds 65%, reaching perhaps 95%, depending on the permittivity values assumed for the dust. Such a concentration is higher than that obtained by Selvans et al. (Selvans, M.M., Plaut, J.J., Aharonson, O. [2010]. J. Geophys. Res, 115, E09003). This discrepancy could be justified considering that our observations refer to the uppermost BU layer, whereas Selvans et al. (Selvans, M.M., Plaut, J.J., Aharonson, O. [2010]. J. Geophys. Res, 115, E09003) probed the BU full thickness. Moreover, if the BU is considered spatially inhomogeneous, with very different dust content and thickness (Tanaka, K.L., Skinner, J.A., Fortezzo, C.M., Herkenhoff, K.E., Rodriguez, J.A.P., Bourke, M.C., Kolb, E.J., Okubo, C.H. [2008]. Icarus, 196, 318–358), the discrepancy could be furtherly reconciled.     

On the displacement of marked pebbles on two coarse-clastic beaches during short fair-weather periods (Marina di Pisa and Portonovo, Italy)

The aim of the investigation was to define the mechanisms of sediment transport in the swash zone of microtidal coarse-clastic beaches in the very short term by evaluating the displacement rates of marked pebbles under low-energy wave conditions. Tests were performed at two sites (Marina di Pisa, Ligurian Sea, and Portonovo, central Adriatic Sea) to check the consistency of the data over a range of different grain sizes. Two recovery campaigns were carried out at both sites, one 6 h and the other 24 h after the injection. During the experiments wave action was at a minimum (wave heights never exceeded 0.3 m). The results show that 20% of pebbles ranging in diameter from 30–90 mm moved significantly (more than 0.5 m) already 6 h after the injection, with some tracers being lost (3%). After 24 h, 40% of the pebbles were significantly displaced and 10% were lost. The preferential downslope movement of tracers, which suggests that coarse sediment movement under low-energy conditions is mainly controlled by gravity processes enhanced by steep beachface slopes, represents the novelty of the results reported here. It would appear that swash processes on low-energy beaches cause a significant rate of pebble displacement through the destabilization induced by wave uprush and backwash. Despite the microtidal range, the position of the mean water level plays a major role in changing the beach level at which swash processes can actually trigger pebble movement. The results of this study show that considerable, and mostly seaward-directed, coarse sediment transport takes place even during short fair-weather periods.     

The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions,unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human–water systems

ABSTRACT

The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the “seventh facet of uncertainty”, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don’t know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don’t know we don’t know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don’t know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human–water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human–water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs     

Site effects in the Aterno River Valley (L’Aquila,Italy): comparison between empirical and 2D numerical modelling starting from April 6th 2009 Mw 6.3 earthquake

In this paper, we focused our attention on a cross-section of the Aterno River Valley where a good quality geological and geophysical dataset allowed to reconstruct accurately the geometry and the Vs profiles along all the plane of the section. Its trace is deliberately aligned close to the strong motion stations that recorded the Mw 6.3 (April 6th 2009) L’Aquila earthquake. We analysed strong and weak motion data available at these latter stations as well as at one of the temporary stations installed during the Microzonation activities and located on outcropping bedrock, in proximity of the cross-section. We used the H/V technique to select a reliable reference site and once we found it, we applied the SSR technique to compute amplification functions in correspondence of two strong motion stations. In turn, for both sites we performed a site response numerical modelling with two different 2D codes and we compared simulated versus experimental transfer functions. We found that the cross-section is well constrained based on the very reasonable agreement between results of numerical modelling and earthquake data analysis. We pointed out also a strong amplification of the deposit at the centre of the valley due to the constructive interference of S and surface waves, not predictable by means of 1D numerical modelling. We also compared the H/V as well as the SSR obtained from strong motion data with the ones computed from weak motion finding evidences of non-linearity in soil behaviour.     

Seismic waves in 3-D: from mantle asymmetries to reliable seismic hazard assessment

A global cross-section of the Earth parallel to the tectonic equator (TE) path, the great circle representing the equator of net lithosphere rotation, shows a difference in shear wave velocities between the western and eastern flanks of the three major oceanic rift basins. The low-velocity layer in the upper asthenosphere, at a depth range of 120 to 200 km, is assumed to represent the decoupling between the lithosphere and the underlying mantle. Along the TE-perturbed (TE-pert) path, a ubiquitous LVZ, about 1,000-km-wide and 100-km-thick, occurs in the asthenosphere. The existence of the TE-pert is a necessary prerequisite for the existence of a continuous global flow within the Earth. Ground-shaking scenarios were constructed using a scenario-based method for seismic hazard analysis (NDSHA), using realistic and duly validated synthetic time series, and generating a data bank of several thousands of seismograms that account for source, propagation, and site effects. Accordingly, with basic self-organized criticality concepts, NDSHA permits the integration of available information provided by the most updated seismological, geological, geophysical, and geotechnical databases for the site of interest, as well as advanced physical modeling techniques, to provide a reliable and robust background for the development of a design basis for cultural heritage and civil infrastructures. Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the NDSHA and standard probabilistic approaches are compared for the Italian territory, and a case-study is discussed. In order to enable a reliable estimation of the ground motion response to an earthquake, three-dimensional velocity models have to be considered, resulting in a new, very efficient, analytical procedure for computing the broadband seismic wave-field in a 3-D anelastic Earth model.