Future makers or future takers? A scenario analysis of climate change and the Great Barrier Reef

The extent to which nations and regions can actively shape the future or must passively respond to global forces is a topic of relevance to current discourses on climate change. In Australia, climate change has been identified as the greatest threat to the ecological resilience of the Great Barrier Reef, but is exacerbated by regional and local pressures. We undertook a scenario analysis to explore how two key uncertainties may influence these threats and their impact on the Great Barrier Reef and adjacent catchments in 2100: whether (1) global development and (2) Australian development is defined and pursued primarily in terms of economic growth or broader concepts of human well-being and environmental sustainability, and in turn, how climate change is managed and mitigated. We compared the implications of four scenarios for marine and terrestrial ecosystem services and human well-being. The results suggest that while regional actions can partially offset global inaction on climate change until about mid-century, there are probable threshold levels for marine ecosystems, beyond which the Great Barrier Reef will become a fundamentally different system by 2100 if climate change is not curtailed. Management that can respond to pressures at both global and regional scales will be needed to maintain the full range of ecosystem services. Modest improvements in human well-being appear possible even while ecosystem services decline, but only where regional management is strong. The future of the region depends largely on whether national and regional decision-makers choose to be active future ‘makers’ or passive future ‘takers’ in responding to global drivers of change. We conclude by discussing potential avenues for using these scenarios further with the Great Barrier Reef region's stakeholders.     

Enantioselectivity of polychlorinated biphenyl atropisomers in sediment and biota from the Turtle/Brunswick River estuary, Georgia, USA

To investigate the potential for enantioselective transformation and accumulation, the enantiomer distributions of seven polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) atropisomers were measured in the sediment and biota from a sub-tropical estuary heavily contaminated with Aroclor 1268, a technical mixture of highly chlorinated PCB congeners. Enantiomer fractions (EFs) of PCBs 91, 95, 136, 149, 174, 176, and 183 in marsh sediment, invertebrate, forage and predatory fish species, and bottlenose dolphins were determined. Non-racemic EFs greater than 0.75 were found in sediments for PCBs 136 and 174, likely the result of microbial dechlorination. Although enantiomer fractions in grass shrimp (Palaemonetes spp.) mirrored those of sediment, fish species had EFs that differed significantly from sediment or grass shrimp. Similarly, bottlenose dolphins were also found to contain non-racemic quantities of PCBs 91, 136, 174, 176, and 183. Non-racemic EFs in these biota were likely a result of both uptake of non-racemic proportions of PCBs from the diet and enantioselective biotransformation.     

Variability patterns of the annual frequency and timing of low streamflow days across the United States and their linkage to regional and large‐scale climate

Low‐flow events can cause significant impacts to river ecosystems and water‐use sectors; as such, it is important to understand their variability and drivers. In this study, we characterise the variability and timing of annual total frequency of low‐streamflow days across a range of headwater streams within the continental United States. To quantify this, we use a metric that counts the annual number of low‐flow days below a given threshold, defined as the cumulative dry days occurrence (CDO). First, we identify three large clusters of stream gauge locations using a Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) clustering algorithm. In terms of timing, results reveal that for most clusters, the majority of low‐streamflow days occur from the middle of summer until early fall, although several locations in Central and Western United States also experience low‐flow days in cold seasons. Further, we aim to identify the regional climate and larger scale drivers for these low‐streamflow days. Regionally, we find that precipitation deficits largely associate with low‐streamflow days in the Western United States, whereas within the Central and Eastern U.S. clusters, high temperature indicators are also linked to low‐streamflow days. In terms of larger scale, we examine sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, finding that extreme dry years exhibit a high degree of co‐occurrence with different patterns of warmer SST anomalies across the Pacific and Northern Atlantic Oceans. The linkages identified with regional climate and SSTs offer promise towards regional prediction of changing conditions of low‐streamflow events.     

A comparison of intertidal species richness and composition between Central California and Oahu,Hawaii

The intertidal zone of tropical islands is particularly poorly known. In contrast, temperate locations such as California's Monterey Bay are fairly well studied. However, even in these locations, studies have tended to focus on a few species or locations. Here we present the results of the first broadscale surveys of invertebrate, fish and algal species richness from a tropical island, Oahu, Hawaii, and a temperate mainland coast, Central California. Data were gathered through surveys of 10 sites in the early 1970s and again in the mid‐1990s in San Mateo and Santa Cruz counties, California, and of nine sites in 2001–2005 on Oahu. Surveys were conducted in a similar manner allowing for a comparison between Oahu and Central California and, for California, a comparison between time periods 24 years apart. We report a previously undocumented richness of intertidal species in both locations: 516 for Oahu and 801 for Central California. Surprisingly, when differences in search efforts are controlled, overall (alpha) diversity appears to be similar between locations, although site level (beta) diversity is much higher in California. Species richness in California generally increased along a wave exposure gradient and distance from an urban area. Much higher numbers of both invasive and endemic species were found on Oahu. In California, more invertebrate species were found in the 1990s, likely due to an improvement in taxonomic resources since the 1970s, and species composition was different in the two surveys due to the high incidence of rare species. Although some southern species increased in number between the two time periods and some northern species decreased, we detected little evidence of change favoring southern or northern species. These results are in line with recent findings that water temperatures in the Monterey Bay have been in a cooling trend since the 1980s, in contrast to many locations elsewhere in the world.     

Mineralogical characterization of Baptistina Asteroid Family: Implications for K/T impactor source

Bottke et al. [Bottke, W.F., Vokrouhlicky, D., Nesvorný, D., 2007. Nature 449, 48–53] linked the catastrophic formation of Baptistina Asteroid Family (BAF) to the K/T impact event. This linkage was based on dynamical and compositional evidence, which suggested the impactor had a composition similar to CM2 carbonaceous chondrites. However, our recent study [Reddy, V., Emery, J.P., Gaffey, M.J., Bottke, W.F., Cramer, A., Kelley, M.S., 2009. Meteorit. Planet. Sci. 44, 1917–1927] suggests that the composition of (298) Baptistina is similar to LL-type ordinary chondrites rather than CM2 carbonaceous chondrites. This rules out any possibility of it being related to the source of the K/T impactor, if the impactor was of CM-type composition. Mineralogical study of asteroids in the vicinity of BAF has revealed a plethora of compositional types suggesting a complex formation and evolution environment. A detailed compositional analysis of 16 asteroids suggests several distinct surface assemblages including ordinary chondrites (Gaffey SIV subtype), primitive achondrites (Gaffey SIII subtype), basaltic achondrites (Gaffey SVII subtype and V-type), and a carbonaceous chondrite. Based on our mineralogical analysis we conclude that (298) Baptistina is similar to ordinary chondrites (LL-type) based on olivine and pyroxene mineralogy and moderate albedo. S-type and V-type in and around the vicinity of BAF we characterized show mineralogical affinity to (8) Flora and (4) Vesta and could be part of their families. Smaller BAF asteroids with lower SNR spectra showing only a ‘single’ band are compositionally similar to (298) Baptistina and L/LL chondrites. It is unclear at this point why the silicate absorption bands in spectra of asteroids with formal family definition seem suppressed relative to background population, despite having similar mineralogy.     

Modeling River Connectivity Using the Barrier Assessment Tool and Available Data on Registered Dams in the Guadalupe–San Antonio River System,Texas

The rate of dam building has declined in the United States, but dam building is still considered an integral part of water supply management, particularly in arid and semiarid regions. Understanding how dams affect river connectivity is a key component of river basin management. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of fragmentation in the Guadalupe–San Antonio River System (GSARS) and how these patterns were related to dam size, age, and purpose. Using a shapefile of registered dams and the National Hydrography Dataset High Resolution (NHD-HR) as input data for the Barrier Assessment Tool (BAT), six successive connectivity models were created. The average length of functional river networks (FRNs) decreased over time but the number of FRNs over 100?km stayed relatively stable. Fragmentation in the GSARS was concentrated around urban centers, and the majority of fragmentation occurred gradually as dams separated small FRNs along tributaries and headwaters. This gradual decline in longitudinal connectivity was punctuated by sporadically large separations of river networks by particular dams based on their location and time of commissioning. The methodology presented here provides a way to analyze both the extent and the temporal evolution of fragmentation in a river system. Key Words: Barrier Assessment Tool (BAT), fragmentation, functional river networks, river connectivity.     

Water Education for Sustainability: Criteria and Recommendations

This article applies behavioral theories, knowledge-to-action frameworks, and educational pedagogy to the case study of water education programs in metropolitan Phoenix, AZ. First, we describe three criteria for sustainable behavior change through education. Next, we demonstrate how water education programs in Phoenix have employed inadequate approaches to reduce resource consumption relative to the criteria. Finally, we offer recommendations to enhance the effectiveness of educational initiatives directed toward transformative change for sustainability. Central insights involve incorporating diverse knowledge domains, using interactive educational techniques, and tailoring programs to specific actions and relevant targeted populations.     

Coastal seas as a context for science teaching: a lesson from Chesapeake Bay

Lessons that employ authentic environmental data can enhance the ability of students to understand fundamental science concepts. This differs from traditional "environmental education" in that school curricula need not set aside time for educators to teach only environmental topics. Rather, the "environment" is used to advance student learning in science and technology. The success of this approach depends on programs that encourage scientists to communicate more effectively with teachers at all education levels. The expanding diversity of research and monitoring activities on the world's marine waters constitutes an outstanding potential education resource. Many of these projects involve remote sensing with sophisticated instrumentation and employ Internet technology to compile measurements, interpret data using graphs and satellite imagery, and share the results among scientific colleagues and the general public alike. Unfortunately, these resources, which constitute a much shortened path between research findings and textbook presentation, are seldom interpreted for use by K-12 educators. We have developed an example that uses the Chesapeake Bay as a paradigm to demonstrate how such interpretation can assist educators in teaching important principles in physical oceanography and marine ecology. We present this example using PowerPoint to conduct a virtual tour of selected Internet sources. Our example begins with the conceptual "salt wedge" circulation model of Chesapeake Bay as a partially mixed estuary. Teachers have the opportunity to explore this model using salinity, temperature, and dissolved oxygen data taken from a research vessel platform during summer professional development programs. This source of authentic data, originally obtained by teachers themselves, clearly demonstrates the presence of a picnocline and deep-water anoxia. Our lesson plan proceeds to interpret these data using additional Internet-based resources at increasing scales of time and space. The "salt wedge," picnocline, and anoxia are examined using graphics derived from data taken by researchers using "ScanFish," a towed instrument that samples temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen at a resolution of only a few meters vertically and horizontally. The seasonal dynamics of these parameters at a given location are interpreted using biweekly monitoring data obtained as part of the state-federal Chesapeake Bay Program. The influence of annual variations in freshwater input is examined using stream flow data from US. Geological Survey gauging stations. Satellite remote sensing images from the TOPEX/Poseidon project are used to show how El Ni?o and La Ni?a events in the mid-Pacific affect the Chesapeake Bay system via rainfall on its watershed. Finally, the life cycle of the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) is presented to show how an estuarine organism has adapted to this truly unique and dynamic coastal environment.     

Crystallization rates of shock melts in three martian basalts: Experimental simulation with implications for meteoroid dimensions

Dynamic crystallization experiments have been performed on synthetic glasses representative of shock-generated melts observed in Los Angeles, Sayh al Uhaymir 150 and Dar al Gani 476 martian basalts. On the basis of qualitative (texture) and quantitative (fractal analysis) results, we show that melt pockets in Los Angeles cooled at a rate of 1040-1560 °C/h. Sayh al Uhaymir 150 and Dar al Gani 476 melt pockets cooled at 780 °C/h. Conductive cooling models, for a range of meteoroid diameters (10-50 cm), indicate that the minimum meteoroid diameter was small, on the order of 10-15 cm and that melt pockets cooled from post-shock temperatures within minutes. Our results also have bearing on shock implanted martian atmospheric components because it is during cooling that the melt pockets have the potential to lose gases. Modeling of argon diffusion in a spherical melt pocket indicates that during cooling and quench crystallization ∼4-60% of trapped martian atmospheric argon may be lost from the melt pocket through diffusive transport.     

Shock implantation of Martian atmospheric argon in four basaltic shergottites: A laser probe Ar/Ar investigation

Spatially resolved argon isotope measurements have been performed on neutron-irradiated samples of two Martian basalts (Los Angeles and Zagami) and two Martian olivine-phyric basalts (Dar al Gani (DaG) 476 and North West Africa (NWA) 1068). With a ∼50 μm diameter focused infrared laser beam, it has been possible to distinguish between argon isotopic signatures from host rock (matrix) minerals and localized shock melt products (pockets and veins). The concentrations of argon in analyzed phases from all four meteorites have been quantified using the measured J values, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ratios and K₂O wt% in each phase. Melt pockets contain, on average, 10 times more gas (7-24 ppb ⁴⁰Ar) than shock veins and matrix minerals (0.3-3 ppb ⁴⁰Ar). The ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratio of the Martian atmosphere, estimated from melt pocket argon extractions corrected for cosmogenic ³⁶Ar, is: Los Angeles (∼1852), Zagami (∼1744) and NWA 1068 (∼1403). In addition, Los Angeles shows evidence for variable mixing of two distinct trapped noble gas reservoirs: (1) Martian atmosphere in melt pockets, and (2) a trapped component, possibly Martian interior (⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar: 480-490) in matrix minerals. Average apparent ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages determined for matrix minerals in the four analyzed meteorites are 1290 Ma (Los Angeles), 692 Ma (Zagami), 515 Ma (NWA 1068) and 1427 Ma (DaG 476). These ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar apparent ages are substantially older than the ∼170-474 Ma radiometric ages given by other isotope dating techniques and reveal the presence of trapped ⁴⁰Ar. Cosmic ray exposure (CRE) ages were measured using spallogenic ³⁶Ar and ³⁸Ar production. Los Angeles (3.1 ± 0.2 Ma), Zagami (2.9 ± 0.4 Ma) and NWA 1068 (2.0 ± 0.5 Ma) yielded ages within the range of previous determinations. DaG 476, however, yielded a young CRE age (0.7 ± 0.25 Ma), attributed to terrestrial alteration. The high spatial variation of argon indicates that the incorporation of Martian atmospheric argon into near-surface rocks is controlled by localized glass-bearing melts produced by shock processes. In particular, the larger (mm-size) melt pockets contain near end-member Martian atmospheric argon. Based on petrography, composition and argon isotopic data we conclude that the investigated melt pockets formed by localized in situ shock melting associated with ejection. Three processes may have led to atmosphere incorporation: (1) argon implantation due to atmospheric shock front collision with the Martian surface, (2) transformation of an atmosphere-filled cavity into a localized melt zone, and (3) shock implantation of atmosphere trapped in cracks, pores and fissures.