A study of methods to estimate debris flow velocity

Debris flow velocities are commonly back-calculated from superelevation events which require subjective estimates of radii of curvature of bends in the debris flow channel or predicted using flow equations that require the selection of appropriate rheological models and material property inputs. This research investigated difficulties associated with the use of these conventional velocity estimation methods. Radii of curvature estimates were found to vary with the extent of the channel investigated and with the scale of the media used, and back-calculated velocities varied among different investigated locations along a channel. Distinct populations of Bingham properties were found to exist between those measured by laboratory tests and those back-calculated from field data; thus, laboratory-obtained values would not be representative of field-scale debris flow behavior. To avoid these difficulties with conventional methods, a new preliminary velocity estimation method is presented that statistically relates flow velocity to the channel slope and the flow depth. This method presents ranges of reasonable velocity predictions based on 30 previously measured velocities.     

Estimation of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency curves at ungauged locations using quantile regression methods

Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves of extreme rainfall are used extensively in infrastructure design and water resources management. In this study, a novel regional framework based on quantile regression (QR) is used to estimate rainfall IDF curves at ungauged locations. Unlike standard regional approaches, such as index-storm and at-site ordinary least-squares regression, which are dependent on parametric distributional assumptions, the non-parametric QR approach directly estimates rainfall quantiles as a function of physiographic characteristics. Linear and nonlinear methods are evaluated for both the regional delineation and IDF curve estimation steps. Specifically, delineation by canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and nonlinear CCA (NLCCA) is combined, in turn, with linear QR and nonlinear QR estimation in a regional modelling framework. An exhaustive comparative study is conducted between standard regional methods and the proposed QR framework at sites across Canada. Overall, the fully nonlinear QR framework, which uses NLCCA for delineation and nonlinear QR for estimation of IDF curves at ungauged sites, leads to the best results.     

Center limb observations of inhomogeneities in the solar atmosphere

Center-limb observations of line-center intensity fluctuations in the Na D and Na 5688 doublets and the Mg 4571 line are described. For small scale structures the rms distributions for the photospheric lines show maxima of 20% at a heliocentric angle of 40° (Mg4571) and 9% at 20° (Na 5688). The rms values for Na D range between 10 and 13% but show no significant maximum. Values for large scale structures are somewhat less.Auto-correlation curves show a range of structures from 4000 km to 30000 km. Brightness-velocity cross-correlation curves and the actual brightness and velocity tracings from a region near disk-center are also studied. A new method of classifying cross-correlation coefficients calculated over many different ranges within the sample enables one to distinguish the existence and extent of regions of significant cross-correlation within the sample and this is applied both to the results for the Na D lines and for the Mg b lines given in Paper I. It is found that regions of significant correlation may extend for lengths of order 25000 km after which the correlation may abruptly change sign or become negligible. The suggestion made in Paper I that these abrupt changes may occur at the supergranule boundaries is further supported.The relation between these small scale structures and the 5 min oscillations is investigated.The question of the reproducibility of these statistical data from day to day and at different positions of the Sun at the same heliocentric angle is discussed and the need for further independent observations is stressed.     

Chemical compatibility testing of the entomopathogenic fungus Lecanicillium muscarium to control Bemisia tabaci in glasshouse environment

The potential for using the entomopathogenic fungus Lecanicillium muscarium to control the sweetpotato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci has been well established in previous studies under both laboratory and glasshouse conditions. In the current study, five chemicals were assessed for their compatibility with L. muscarium for control of B. tabaci under glasshouse conditions. On treatments following the sequential application of chemical product and fungus high mortality of second instar larvae was obtained (the known most susceptible B. tabaci life-stage to fungal infection). Sequential treatment of Savona and Certis spraying oil with L. muscarium produced 95 % and 96 % larval mortality, respectively. Commercially, unacceptable poinsettia foliage damage was recorded seven days post application of Agri-50E. Other plant foliage may prove more tolerant to this product. Incorporation of these chemicals with L. muscarium into integrated control programmes for B. tabaci control in glasshouses is discussed. Further information has been added to the knowledge base for the combined use of chemicals and fungi for the control of B. tabaci.     

近40年内蒙古候平均气温变化趋势

基于1964—2003年内蒙古有关台站的逐日气温数据, 对前20年 (1964—1983年) 和后20年 (1984—2003年) 的候平均气温中值进行了对比, 并利用k-means方法进行了候平均气温变化趋势的聚类分析, 旨在阐明内蒙古气温变化的时空特点和规律。研究结果表明:内蒙古全境年平均气温普遍上升, 没有下降的现象。不同地区、不同季节气温变化格局不同, 北部变暖比南部更为明显, 冬季和夏末秋初变暖出现得更频繁。绝大部分地区大多数候平均气温都有所上升, 而且候平均气温变化存在纬向地带性。大多数台站四季里都有一些显著升温的候, 显著升温在冬季发生得更为频繁。同时, 有少数几个候出现气温下降的现象, 但未达到显著下降的程度。内蒙古绝大部分地区候最高、最低气温都有所升高, 但二者的差值在缩小。候最低气温出现时间有所提前, 候最高气温出现时间有提前也有推迟, 但总体上不同地区候最高、最低气温出现时间更加同步。因此, 候最高、最低气温的时空均一性有所增强。候最高气温出现时间与候最低气温出现时间的间隔有扩大迹象。总之, 全球气候变暖降低了气温的季节和地区差异。     

Soil geochemical signature of urbanization and industrialization – Chicago, Illinois, USA

The concentrations of 45 elements in ambient (not obviously disturbed) surface soils were determined for 57 sites distributed throughout the city of Chicago, Illinois in the upper Midwestern United States. These concentrations were compared to soils from 105 sites from a largely agricultural region within a 500-km radius surrounding the city and to soils collected from 90 sites across the state of Illinois. Although the bulk composition of the Chicago urban soils reflects largely natural sources, the soils are significantly enriched in many trace elements, apparently from anthropogenic sources. The median concentration of Pb in Chicago soils is 198 mg/kg, a 13-fold enrichment compared to regional concentrations. Zinc (median 235 mg/kg), Cu (59 mg/kg), and Ni (31 mg/kg) are also enriched from 2- to 4-fold in Chicago soils and all four elements show strong mutual correlations. These elevated concentrations are most likely related to vehicular and roadway sources and represent uneven distribution across the city as airborne material. Other airborne particulate material from a combination of fossil fuel combustion, waste incineration, and steel production may contribute to apparent elevated concentrations in Chicago soil of Fe (median 2.9%), Mo (5 mg/kg), V (82 mg/kg) and S (0.09%). Chicago soils are enriched from about 1.6- to 3-fold in these elements. Enrichments in P and Se may be caused by direct addition of phosphate fertilizer to parklands, lawns and gardens. The density of the sampling (1 site per 10 km²) is inadequate to define the distribution of the observed enrichments within the city or to predict soil compositions for most of the areas between sample sites, but does provide a statistically significant signature of the history of urban and industrial activity within the city in contrast to the surrounding agricultural lands.     

Community level adaptation to climate change: The potential role of participatory community risk assessment

This paper explores the value of using community risk assessments (CRAs) for climate change adaptation. CRA refers to participatory methods to assess hazards, vulnerabilities and capacities in support of community-based disaster risk reduction, used by many NGOs, community-based organizations, and the Red Cross/Red Crescent. We review the evolution of climate change adaptation and community-based disaster risk reduction, and highlight the challenges of integrating global climate change into a bottom-up and place-based approach. Our analysis of CRAs carried out by various national Red Cross societies shows that CRAs can help address those challenges by fostering community engagement in climate risk reduction, particularly given that many strategies to deal with current climate risks also help to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Climate change can also be explicitly incorporated in CRAs by making better use of CRA tools to assess trends, and by addressing the notion of changing risks. However, a key challenge is to keep CRAs simple enough for wide application. This demands special attention in the modification of CRA tools; in the background materials and trainings for CRA facilitators; and in the guidance for interpretation of CRA outcomes. A second challenge is the application of a limited set of CRA results to guide risk reduction in other communities and to inform national and international adaptation policy. This requires specific attention for sampling and care in scaling up qualitative findings. Finally, stronger linkages are needed between organizations facilitating CRAs and suppliers of climate information, particularly addressing the translation of climate information to the community level.     

Radio galaxies in the 2SLAQ Luminous Red Galaxy survey – II. The stellar populations of radio-loud and radio-quiet LRGs

We present an analysis of the optical spectra of a volume-limited sample of 375 radio galaxies at redshift  0.4 < z < 0.7  from the 2dF-SDSS (Sloan Digital Sky Survey) Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) and QSO (quasi-stellar object) (2SLAQ) redshift survey. We investigate the evolution of the stellar populations and emission-line properties of these galaxies. By constructing composite spectra and comparing with a matched sample of radio-quiet sources from the same survey, we also investigate the effect on the galaxy of the presence of an active nucleus.
The composite spectra, binned by redshift and radio luminosity, all require two components to describe them, which we interpret as an old and a younger population. We found no evolution with redshift of the age of the younger population in radio galaxies, nor were they different from the radio-quiet comparison sample. Similarly, there is no correlation with radio power, with the exception that the most powerful radio sources  ( P _1.4 > 10²⁶  W Hz⁻¹) have younger stars and stronger emission lines than the less powerful sources. This suggests that we have located the threshold in radio power where strong emission lines 'switch on', at radio powers of around 10²⁶ W Hz⁻¹. Except for the very powerful radio galaxies, the presence of a currently active radio active galactic nucleus (AGN) does not appear to be correlated with any change in the observed stellar population of a luminous red galaxy at   z ∼ 0.5  .