A secondary resonance in Mercury’s rotation

The resonant rotation of Mercury can be modelised by a kernel model on which we can add perturbations. Our kernel model is a two-degree of freedom one written in Hamiltonian formalism. For this kernel, we consider that Mercury is solid and rotates on a Keplerian orbit. By introducing the perturbations due to the other planets of the Solar System, it appears that, in a particular case, our slow degree of freedom may enter into a 1:1 resonance with the Great Inequality of Jupiter and Saturn. Actually, as the moments of inertia of Mercury are still poorly known, this phenomenon cannot be excluded.     

Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the origin of the equatorial cold tongue bias in CGCMs and its impact on ENSO

The cold equatorial SST bias in the tropical Pacific that is persistent in many coupled OAGCMs severely impacts the fidelity of the simulated climate and variability in this key region, such as the ENSO phenomenon. The classical bias analysis in these models usually concentrates on multi-decadal to centennial time series needed to obtain statistically robust features. Yet, this strategy cannot fully explain how the models errors were generated in the first place. Here, we use seasonal re-forecasts (hindcasts) to track back the origin of this cold bias. As such hindcasts are initialized close to observations, the transient drift leading to the cold bias can be analyzed to distinguish pre-existing errors from errors responding to initial ones. A time sequence of processes involved in the advent of the final mean state errors can then be proposed. We apply this strategy to the ENSEMBLES-FP6 project multi-model hindcasts of the last decades. Four of the five AOGCMs develop a persistent equatorial cold tongue bias within a few months. The associated systematic errors are first assessed separately for the warm and cold ENSO phases. We find that the models are able to reproduce either El Niño or La Niña close to observations, but not both. ENSO composites then show that the spurious equatorial cooling is maximum for El Niño years for the February and August start dates. For these events and at this time of the year, zonal wind errors in the equatorial Pacific are present from the beginning of the simulation and are hypothesized to be at the origin of the equatorial cold bias, generating too strong upwelling conditions. The systematic underestimation of the mixed layer depth in several models can also amplify the growth of the SST bias. The seminal role of these zonal wind errors is further demonstrated by carrying out ocean-only experiments forced by the AOCGCMs daily 10-meter wind. In a case study, we show that for several models, this forcing is sufficient to reproduce the main SST error patterns seen after 1 month in the AOCGCM hindcasts.     

A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments

Understanding the sources of systematic errors in climate models is challenging because of coupled feedbacks and errors compensation. The developing seamless approach proposes that the identification and the correction of short term climate model errors have the potential to improve the modeled climate on longer time scales. In previous studies, initialised atmospheric simulations of a few days have been used to compare fast physics processes (convection, cloud processes) among models. The present study explores how initialised seasonal to decadal hindcasts (re-forecasts) relate transient week-to-month errors of the ocean and atmospheric components to the coupled model long-term pervasive SST errors. A protocol is designed to attribute the SST biases to the source processes. It includes five steps: (1) identify and describe biases in a coupled stabilized simulation, (2) determine the time scale of the advent of the bias and its propagation, (3) find the geographical origin of the bias, (4) evaluate the degree of coupling in the development of the bias, (5) find the field responsible for the bias. This strategy has been implemented with a set of experiments based on the initial adjustment of initialised simulations and exploring various degrees of coupling. In particular, hindcasts give the time scale of biases advent, regionally restored experiments show the geographical origin and ocean-only simulations isolate the field responsible for the bias and evaluate the degree of coupling in the bias development. This strategy is applied to four prominent SST biases of the IPSLCM5A-LR coupled model in the tropical Pacific, that are largely shared by other coupled models, including the Southeast Pacific warm bias and the equatorial cold tongue bias. Using the proposed protocol, we demonstrate that the East Pacific warm bias appears in a few months and is caused by a lack of upwelling due to too weak meridional coastal winds off Peru. The cold equatorial bias, which surprisingly takes 30 years to develop, is the result of an equatorward advection of midlatitude cold SST errors. Despite large development efforts, the current generation of coupled models shows only little improvement. The strategy proposed in this study is a further step to move from the current random ad hoc approach, to a bias-targeted, priority setting, systematic model development approach.     

Climate-Caused Abrupt Shifts in a European Macrotidal Estuary

Although many consequences of climate change on marine and terrestrial ecosystems are well documented, the characterisation of estuarine ecosystems specific responses and the drivers of the changes are less understood. In this study, we considered the biggest Southwestern European estuary, the Gironde, as a model of a macrotidal estuary to assess the effects of both large- (i.e., North Atlantic basin-scale) and regional-scale climate changes. Using a unique set of data on climatic, physical, chemical and biological parameters for the period 1978–2009, we examined relations between changes in both the physical and chemical environments and pelagic communities (plankton and fish) via an end-to-end approach. Our results show that the estuary experienced two abrupt shifts (～1987 and ～2000) over the last three decades, which altered the whole system. The timing of these abrupt shifts are in accordance with abrupt shifts reported in both marine (e.g., in the North Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and along the Atlantic) and terrestrial (e.g., in European lakes) realms. Although this work does not allow a full understanding of the dynamical processes through which climate effects propagate along the different compartments of the ecosystem, it provides evidence that the dynamics of the largest estuary of Southwest Europe is strongly modulated by climate change at both regional and global scales.     

A DUAL mission for nuclear astrophysics

DUAL will study the origin and evolution of the elements and explores new frontiers of physics: extreme energies that drive powerful stellar explosions and accelerate particles to macroscopic energies; extreme densities that modify the laws of physics around the most compact objects known; and extreme fields that influence matter in a way that is unknown on Earth. The variability of these extreme objects requires continuous all-sky coverage, while detailed study demands an improvement in sensitivity over previous technologies by at least an order of magnitude. The DUAL payload is composed of an All-Sky Compton Imager (ASCI), and two optical modules, the Laue-Lens Optic (LLO) and the Coded-Mask Optic (CMO). The ASCI serves dual roles simultaneously, both as an optimal focal-plane sensor for deep observations with the optical modules and as a sensitive true all-sky telescope in its own right for all-sky surveys and monitoring. While the optical modules are located on the main satellite, the All-Sky Compton Imager is situated on a deployable structure at a distance of 30?m from the satellite. This configuration not only permits to maintain the less massive payload at the focal distance, it also greatly reduces the spacecraft-induced detector background, and, above all it provides ASCI with a continuous all-sky exposure.     

Behavior of nearby synchronous rotations of a Poincaré–Hough satellite at low eccentricity

This paper presents a study of the Poincaré–Hough model of rotation of the synchronous natural satellites, in which these bodies are assumed to be composed of a rigid mantle and a triaxial cavity filled with inviscid fluid of constant uniform density and vorticity. In considering an Io-like body on a low eccentricity orbit, we describe the different possible behaviors of the system, depending on the size, polar flattening and shape of the core. We use for that the numerical tool. We propagate numerically the Hamilton equations of the system, before expressing the resulting variables under a quasi-periodic representation. This expression is obtained numerically by frequency analysis. This allows us to characterise the equilibria of the system, and to distinguish the causes of their time variations. We show that, even without orbital eccentricity, the system can have complex behaviors, in particular when the core is highly flattened. In such a case, the polar motion is forced by several degrees and longitudinal librations appear. This is due to splitting of the equilibrium position of the polar motion. We also get a shift of the obliquity when the polar flattening of the core is small.     

Titan’s rotational state

In Noyelles et al. (Astron. Astrophys. 478, 959–970 (2008)), a resonance involving the wobble of Titan is hinted at. This paper studies this scenario and its consequences. The first step is to build an accurate analytical model that would help to find the likely resonances in the rotation of every synchronous body. In this model, I take the orbital eccentricity of the body into account, as well as its variable inclination with respect to Saturn’s equator. Then an analytical study using the second fundamental model of the resonance is performed to study the resonance of interest. Finally, I study the dissipative consequences of this resonance. I find that this resonance may have increased the wobble of Titan by several degrees. For instance, if Titan’s polar momentum C is equal to 0.355MR _T ² (M and R _T being, respectively, Titan’s mass and radius), the wobble might be forced to 41 degrees. Thanks to an original formula, I find that the dissipation associated with the forced wobble might not be negligible compared to the contribution of the eccentricity. I also suspect that, due to the forced wobble, Titan’s period of rotation may be somewhat underestimated by observers. Finally, I use the analytical model presented in this paper to compute the periods of the free librations of the four Galilean satellites as well as the Saturnian satellite Rhea. For Io and Europa, the results are consistent with previous studies. For the other satellites, the periods of the free librations are, respectively, 186.37 d, 23.38 y and 30.08 y for Ganymede, 2.44 y, 209.32 y and 356.54 y for Callisto, and 51.84 d, 2.60 y and 3.59 y for Rhea.     

Distributed jobs on EGEE Grid infrastructure for an Earth science application: moment tensor computation at the centroid of an earthquake

The Centroid Moment Tensor is a good summary of the fault rupture happening during an earthquake. We here describe a method for its determination in case of large earthquakes (with magnitude greater than 6.5) recorded world-widely by permanent digital seismic stations networks, as well as how deploying it on a Grid computing facility finally enabled its fast completion. Two different approaches of this process used over the last years are herein detailed and discussed. Some important impacts of this work are then highlighted and future trends are foreseen.     

The stress field at Soultz-sous-Forêts from focal mechanisms of induced seismic events: Cases of the wells GPK2 and GPK3

The stress field at the EGS geothermal site of Soultz-sous-Forêts has been the subject of many studies, because it largely controls the response of the reservoir to fluid injection. The analysis of borehole logging data, especially breakouts and drilling-induced tension fractures, in the four geothermal wells define an average SHmax orientation ranging between 170° and 180° down to 5 km depth. It also reveals strong heterogeneities in several depth intervals. In this paper, the inversion of double-couple source mechanisms of seismic events induced during GPK2 and GPK3 stimulation tests is performed to retrieve the orientation and shape factor of the stress tensor, using the Slickenside Analysis Package of Michael, 1984, Michael, 1987a, Michael, 1987b. The results indicate a well-determined orientation of Shmin in GPK2 and in GPK3; in GPK3 Shmin is clockwise rotated by about 10°. The stress tensor defines an uniaxial extension. The results from both methods, analysis of borehole logging data and inversion of focal mechanisms, are only slightly different; the discrepancy may be due to the larger reservoir volume covered by the focal mechanisms, which can include strong stress heterogeneities.