A unified framework for earthquake risk assessment of transportation networks and gross regional product

Natural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have had serious impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 emphasized the importance of preparedness and awareness to reduce social impacts. In addition to that, earthquake damaged businesses dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Generating scenario earthquakes in a proper way is important to suitably assess the risk in bridge networks and social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. Seismic hazard is traditionally assessed by means of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Although PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location it is not suitable for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes can overcome this problem; they represent the actual distribution of ground shaking for a spatially distributed system while being hazard consistent. In this work a methodology to generate scenario earthquakes has been proposed using a novel approach with the aim of being the basic step for investigating possible earthquake consequences in seismic areas and contributing to reduce losses.     

Experimental and numerical evaluation of the fundamental period of undamaged and damaged RC framed buildings

This paper deals with the period evaluation of Reinforced Concrete (RC) framed buildings in elastic, yield and severely damaged states. Firstly, period-height relationships either reported in the literature, or obtained from both numerical simulations (eigenvalue analyses) and experimental measurements (ambient vibration analyses) have been examined and compared. Structural types representing low-rise, mid-rise and high-rise RC buildings without earthquake resistant design, widely present in the Italian and European built environment, have been studied. Results have shown high differences between numerical and experimental period values. Period elongation (stiffness degradation) during and after strong ground shaking has been also examined based on results from experimental in situ and laboratory tests performed on some RC framed building structures which suffered moderate-heavy damage. Some comments on the relationship between damage level and period elongation are reported.     

Evolution and depositional environments of the Eberswalde fan delta, Mars

The Eberswalde crater and its contributing basins have been analyzed in detail in order to reconstruct the geological evolution of the water-related landforms with particular focus on the Eberswalde delta-like feature. Based on a complex strata organization characterized by a topset-foreset-bottomset geometry, typical of delta progradation on Earth, we interpret the Eberswalde feature to be a fan delta associated with a lacustrine system. Depositional sub-environments have been recognized and mapped and the sedimentary processes discussed. A sequence stratigraphy approach has been used to evaluate the system, which we interpret to result from three depositional sequences. These sequences suggest relative water level fluctuations and a longer trend over time towards decreasing water content inside the basin.     

Steady flows driven by sources of random strength in heterogeneous aquifers with application to partially penetrating wells

Average steady source flow in heterogeneous porous formations is modelled by regarding the hydraulic conductivity K(x) as a stationary random space function (RSF). As a consequence, the flow variables become RSFs as well, and we are interested into calculating their moments. This problem has been intensively studied in the case of a Neumann type boundary condition at the source. However, there are many applications (such as well-type flows) for which the required boundary condition is that of Dirichlet. In order to fulfill such a requirement the strength of the source must be proportional to K(x), and therefore the source itself results a RSF. To solve flows driven by sources whose strength is spatially variable, we have used a perturbation procedure similar to that developed by Indelman and Abramovich (Water Resour Res 30:3385–3393, 1994) to analyze flows generated by sources of deterministic strength. Due to the linearity of the mathematical problem, we have focused on the explicit derivation of the mean head distribution G _d (x) generated by a unit pulse. Such a distribution represents the fundamental solution to the average flow equations, and it is termed as mean Green function. The function G _d (x) is derived here at the second order of approximation in the variance σ² of the fluctuation (where K _A is the mean value of K(x)), for arbitrary correlation function ρ(x), and any dimensionality d of the flow domain. We represent G _d (x) as product between the homogeneous Green function G _d ⁽⁰⁾(x) valid in a domain with constant K _A , and a distortion term Ψ _d (x) = 1 + σ²ψ _d (x) which modifies G _d ⁽⁰⁾(x) to account for the medium heterogeneity. In the case of isotropic formations ψ _d (x) is expressed via one quadrature. This quadrature can be analytically calculated after adopting specific (e.g.. exponential and Gaussian) shape for ρ(x). These general results are subsequently used to investigate flow toward a partially-penetrating well in a semi-infinite domain. Indeed, we construct a σ²-order approximation to the mean as well as variance of the head by replacing the well with a singular segment. It is shown how the well-length combined with the medium heterogeneity affects the head distribution. We have introduced the concept of equivalent conductivity K ^eq(r,z). The main result is the relationship where the characteristic function ψ^(w)(r,z) adjusts the homogeneous conductivity K _A to account for the impact of the heterogeneity. In this way, a procedure can be developed to identify the aquifer hydraulic properties by means of field-scale head measurements. Finally, in the case of a fully penetrating well we have expressed the equivalent conductivity in analytical form, and we have shown that (being the effective conductivity for mean uniform flow), in agreement with the numerical simulations of Firmani et al. (Water Resour Res 42:W03422, 2006).     

Data-driven retrieval of primary plane-wave responses

Seismic images provided by reverse time migration can be contaminated by artefacts associated with the migration of multiples. Multiples can corrupt seismic images, producing both false positives, that is by focusing energy at unphysical interfaces, and false negatives, that is by destructively interfering with primaries. Multiple prediction/primary synthesis methods are usually designed to operate on point source gathers and can therefore be computationally demanding when large problems are considered. A computationally attractive scheme that operates on plane-wave datasets is derived by adapting a data-driven point source gathers method, based on convolutions and cross-correlations of the reflection response with itself, to include plane-wave concepts. As a result, the presented algorithm allows fully data-driven synthesis of primary reflections associated with plane-wave source responses. Once primary plane-wave responses are estimated, they are used for multiple-free imaging via plane-wave reverse time migration. Numerical tests of increasing complexity demonstrate the potential of the proposed algorithm to produce multiple-free images from only a small number of plane-wave datasets.     

A Bayesian hierarchical approach for spatial analysis of climate model bias in multi-model ensembles

Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models are key tools to investigate climate dynamics and the climatic response to external forcings, to predict climate evolution and to generate future climate projections. Current general circulation models are, however, undisputedly affected by substantial systematic errors in their outputs compared to observations. The assessment of these so-called biases, both individually and collectively, is crucial for the models’ evaluation prior to their predictive use. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for a unified assessment of spatially referenced climate model biases in a multi-model framework. A key feature of our approach is that the model quantifies an overall common bias that is obtained by synthesizing bias across the different climate models in the ensemble, further determining the contribution of each model to the overall bias. Moreover, we determine model-specific individual bias components by characterizing them as non-stationary spatial fields. The approach is illustrated based on the case of near-surface air temperature bias in the tropical Atlantic and bordering regions from a multi-model ensemble of historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The results demonstrate the improved quantification of the bias and interpretative advantages allowed by the posterior distributions derived from the proposed Bayesian hierarchical framework, whose generality favors its broader application within climate model assessment.     

Relationships between ultrapotassic and carbonate-rich volcanic rocks in central Italy: petrogenetic and geodynamic implications

The Pleistocene intra-Apennine volcanic (IAV) centres occurring east of the potassium-rich Roman comagmatic province show variable petrological and geochemical composition. Some rocks have a strongly undersaturated ultrapotassic kamafugitic affinity with K₂O/Na₂O=8–20, whereas the rocks from the southern center of Mt. Vulture are still strongly undersaturated in silica but are enriched in both Na₂O and K₂O with K/Na around unity. Carbonate-rich pyroclastic rocks, believed to represent carbonatitic magmas, are found in the IAV centers. Kamafugites have high abundances of LILE and high LILE/HFSE ratios, and their incompatible element patterns resemble closely those of ultrapotassic rocks from the adjoining Roman province. The Vulture volcanics also display high contents of LILE, but their LILE/HFSE ratios are intermediate between intraplate alkaline rocks and kamafugites. The carbonate-rich rocks exhibit an exotic mineralogy and high enrichments in LILE, which speaks for a carbonatitic affinity. However, they have similar incompatible element patterns but consistently lower abundances of almost all the elements than the associated silicate volcanics. These data favour the hypothesis that the IAV carbonate rocks may represent mixtures of silicate magmas and geochemically depleted carbonate material. The sedimentary carbonates that crop out extensively along the Apennine chain may be the source of barren carbonate material. Overall, geochemical data of IAV centres and of the rocks from the Roman province display strong geochemical and isotopic evidence of being generated in an upper mantle that was modified by addition of upper crustal material brought down by subduction processes. A possible exception is represented by Mt. Vulture which, however, occurs east of the main axis of the Apennines, on the western margin of the foreland Adria plate. The occurrence of strongly undersaturated alkaline rocks requires magma generation at high pressures and . This is in agreement with the hypothesis that subduction processes under the Apennines occurred by consumption of poorly hydrated thinned or delaminated continental crust.     

On the shape and orientation of the tail of Comet Kohoutek (1973f)

Twenty-two photographs of Comet Kohoutek (1973f) have been projected onto the comet's orbital plane under the assumption of a flat tail confined in that plane. The comet has a mixed-type tail; therefore the results concerning Type I and Type II components of the tail are presented separately. The axis of the Type I tail appears to sweep back and forth with respect to the prolonged radius vector in a rather periodical way. Interpretations advanced by some authors for the analogous case of Comet Burnham (1959k) are mentioned briefly. For the Type II tail, a comparison with a theoretical tail model by Sekanina has allowed us to establish when the onset of appreciable dust production occurred. Finally, mention is made of the fact that some peculiarities of the dust tail might be also explained by assuming a three-dimensional model.     

Factors responsible for the differences in satellite-based chlorophyll a concentration between the major global upwelling areas

The aim of this study was to identify the factors responsible for the differences in chlorophyll a concentration (Chl-a) observed between the California, Canary, Humboldt and Benguela upwelling areas. Monthly climatologic values of Chl-a obtained from satellite images, covering the years 1998–2004, revealed that this pigment was higher in the Benguela system than in the other areas. Upwelling intensity, as derived from offshore Ekman transport computations, was higher in the Benguela and Humboldt regions and, for the same upwelling intensity, Chl-a was higher in Benguela than in the other regions. Upwelling intensity appears to be able to drive Chl-a densities through nutrient supply, as nutrients are correlated to offshore Ekman transport. A linear regression model including the fraction of sea surface over the shelf in each 1° × 1° box, nitrate, silicate, turbulence and variability of offshore Ekman transport explained the 84.8% of the variance in Chl-a among the areas. Differences in offshore Ekman transport explained the lower Chl-a observed in Canary and California and the higher Chl-a observed in Benguela and Peru-Humboldt. A narrow continental shelf and low water column stability also contribute to reducing phytoplankton pigment biomass in the Canary and California areas. The higher Chl-a values observed in Benguela compared to Humboldt-Peru are due to a wider extension of the continental shelf in the Benguela region.