Motions in the solar atmosphere associated with the white light flare of 11 July 1978

Series of white light heliograms and oft- and on-band H filtergrams have been obtained, with an average spatial resolution of 1, to study the flare active McMath region 15403 on 11 July, 1978. A great number of accurate heliographic positions were determined for the umbrae, the white light flare patches and several bright H flare knots, as well as along the principal zero filament and an arch prominence. Using the measured heliographic coordinates of these objects their motions could be analyzed in some detail. The velocities of several different objects could be deduced from the coordinates. Since the heliocentric angle of the region was about 45°, the variation in apparent heliographic coordinates also enabled some variations in heights to be determined.It is pointed out that the flare when fully developed, consisted almost entirely of loops. The zero filament which was activated prior to the flare ran between two umbrae of common penumbra and opposite polarity, one belonging to an old, the other to a new spot group. The white light flare developed on both sides of the filament where it passed between these two umbrae; it was also the place where the flare started. Observational evidence appears to indicate that the erupted filament re-formed from below.An indication has been found that there was a link between the motion of some umbrae and the major flare occurrence.     

X-ray imaging of three flares during the impulsive phase

The impulsive phases of three flares that occurred on April 10, May 21, and November 5, 1980 are discussed. Observations were obtained with the Hard X-ray Imaging Spectrometer (HXIS) and other instruments aboard SMM, and have been supplemented with Hα data and magnetograms. The flares show hard X-ray brightenings (16–30 keV) at widely separated locations that spatially coincide with bright Hα patches. The bulk of the soft X-ray emission (3.5–5.5 keV) originates from in between the hard X-ray brightenings. The latter are located at different sides of the neutral line and start to brighten simultaneously to within the time resolution of HXIS. Concluded is that:

1. The bright hard X-ray patches coincide with the footpoints of loops.
2. The hard X-ray emission from the footpoints is most likely thick target emission from fast electrons moving downward into the dense chromosphere.
3. The density of the loops along which the beam electrons propagate to the footpoints is restricted to a narrow range (10⁹ < n < 2 × 10¹⁰ cm^-3), determined by the instability threshold of the return current and the condition that the mean free path of the fast electrons should be larger than the length of the loop.
4. For the November 5 flare it seems likely that the acceleration source is located at the merging point of two loops near one of the footpoints.

It is found that the total flare energy is always larger than the total energy residing in the beam electrons. However, it is also estimated that at the time of the peak of the impulsive hard X-ray emission a large fraction (at least 20%) of the dissipated flare power has to go into electron acceleration. The explanation of such a high acceleration efficiency remains a major theoretical problem.     

Spatial and temporal evolution of soft and hard X-ray emission in a solar flare

We study the spatial and temporal characteristics of the 3.5 to 30.0 keV emission in a solar flare on April 10, 1980. The data were obtained by the Hard X-ray Imaging Spectrometer aboard the Solar Maximum Mission Satellite. It is complemented in our analysis with data from other instruments on the same spacecraft, in particular that of the Hard X-ray Burst Spectrometer.Key results of our investigation are: (a) Continuous energy release is needed to substain the increase of the emission through the rising phase of the flare, before and after the impulsive phase in hard X-rays. The energy release is characterized by the production of hot (5 × 10⁷ T 1.5 × 10⁸ K) thermal regions within the flare loop structures. (b) The observational parameters characterizing the impulsive burst show that it is most likely associated with non-thermal processes (particle acceleration). (c) The continuous energy release is associated with strong chromospheric evaporation, as evidenced in the spectral line behavior determined from the Bent Crystal Spectrometer data. Both processes seem to stop just before flare maximum, and the subsequent evolution is most likely governed by the radiative cooling of the flare plasma.     

Window technique for climate trend analysis

Climatic characteristics are affected by various systematic and occasional impacts: besides the changes in the observing system (locations of the stations of the meteorological network, instruments, observing procedures), the possible local-scale and global natural and antropogenic impacts on climatic conditions should be taken into account. Apart from the predictability problems, the phenomenological analysis of the climatic variability and the determination of past persistent climatic anomalies are significant problems, among other aspects, as evidence of the possible anomalous behavior of climate or for climate impact studies. In this paper, a special technique for the identification of such shifts in the observational series is presented. The existence of these significant shorter or longer term changes in the mean characteristics for the properly selected adjoining periods of time is the necessary condition for the formation of any more or less unidirectional climatic trends. Actually, the window technique is based on a complete set of orthogonal functions. The sensitivity of the proposed model on its main parameters is also investigated. This method is applied for hemispheric and Hungarian data series of the mean annual surface temperature.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Study of the influence of katabatic flows on the Antarctic circulation using GCM simulations

Summary A one dimensional analytical model of katabatic wind over the Antarctica has been developed. This parametric model is derived from the bulk two-layer model of Ball including the surface friction and taking into account the Earth's rotation and the geostrophic wind in the upper layer.This model is validated using the data set (70 soundings) collected during IAGO experiment at D47 (67°24S, 138°43E, altitude 1 564m), 110 km inland from the coast of Adélie Land.The parameteric model is then introduced into a GCM which is a spectral global version of the operational numerical weather prediction model used by the French weather service. The most significant effect of the parameterization is a 50 m increase of the geopotential height over the South Pole. The surface temperature at the South Pole increases (2°C) reducing the pole-midlatitude thermal gradient. The westerly circulation at 50° S is slowed down (4m/s at 850 hPa), and the surface pressure at the South Pole increases (4hPa). These results, consistent with an increase of katabatic winds, would however be improved by a better coupling between the parameterization and the GCM boundary layer.With 8 Figures     

Modeling nonlinear seagrass clonal growth: Assessing the efficiency of space occupation across the seagrass flora

The clonal growth of 9 seagrass species was modeled using a simulation model based on observed clonal growth rules (i.e., spacer length, rhizome elongation rates, branching rates, branching angle) and shoot mortality rates for seagrass species. The results of the model confirmed the occurrence of complex, nonlinear growth of seagrass clones derived from internal dynamics of space occupation. The modeled clones progressed from a diffuse-limited aggregation (DLA), dendritic growth, identified with a guerrilla strategy of space occupation, to a compact (Eden) growth, comparable to the phalanx strategy of space occupation, once internal recolonization of gaps, left by dead shoots within the clone, begins. The time at which seagrass clones shifted from diffuse limited to compact growth was predictable from the branching angle and frequency of the species and varied from 1 yr to several decades among species. As a consequence the growth behavior and the apparent growth strategy of the species changes with the development of the clones. The results of the model demonstrate that the emergent complexity of seagrass clonal growth is contained within the simple set of growth rules that can be used to represent clonal growth.     

Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.     

Climate variability in the Spanish Pyrenees during the last 30,000 yr revealed by the El Portalet sequence

Palynological, sedimentological and stable isotopic analyses of carbonates and organic matter performed on the El Portalet sequence (1802 m a.s.l., 42°48′00?N, 0°23′52?W) reflect the paleoclimatic evolution and vegetation history in the central-western Spanish Pyrenees over the last 30,000 yr, and provide a high-resolution record for the late glacial period. Our results confirm previous observations that deglaciation occurred earlier in the Pyrenees than in northern European and Alpine sites and point to a glacial readvance from 22,500 to 18,000 cal yr BP, coinciding with the global last glacial maximum. The patterns shown by the new, high-resolution pollen data from this continental sequence, chronologically constrained by 13 AMS ¹⁴C dates, seem to correlate with the rapid climate changes recorded in Greenland ice cores during the last glacial-interglacial transition. Abrupt events observed in northern latitudes (Heinrich events 3 to 1, Oldest and Older Dryas stades, Intra-Allerød Cold Period, and 8200 cal yr BP event) were also identified for the first time in a lacustrine sequence from the central-western Pyrenees as cold and arid periods. The coherent response of the vegetation and the lake system to abrupt climate changes implies an efficient translation of climate variability from the North Atlantic to mid latitudes.     

Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis

This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results.     

Interpretation of subhorizontal crustal reflections by metamorphic and rheologic effects in the eastern part of the Pannonian Basin

The geologic origin of subhorizontal reflections, often observed in crustal seismic sections, was investigated by establishing metamorphic facies and strength of rocks in depth, and correlating these properties to seismic reflection sections from eastern Hungary. Estimation of the depths of metamorphic mineral stability zones utilized the principles developed by Fyfe et al. and known geothermal data of the area. The strength versus depth profile was derived by relating local seismic P -wave interval velocities to Meissner et al. 's activation energy. The results show that the series of subhorizontal reflections, observed in the Pannonian Basin, are a consequence of combined metamorphic and rheologic changes in depths. The synthesis of the integrated data set suggests that the retrograde alteration of the pre-Tertiary basement above the percolation threshold was made possible by the softening effect of shear zones and their water-conducting capacity. The subhorizontal reflections of highest energy, of the consolidated crust below the percolation threshold, originate in the depths of greenschist, amphibolite and granulite metamorphic mineral facies, which were formed in geothermal and pressure conditions similar to those existing today. These results imply the overprint of earlier (Variscan) metamorphic sequences of the crust by more recent retrograde metamorphic processes.