热带东太平洋表面水温和南方涛动指数的混沌学性质及其可预报性

由于地球轨道几何形状周期性的摆动,导致接收太阳辐射量的周期变化,从而引起对标志全球气候年际变化的热带太平洋表面水温和南方涛动指数周期性的研究,并得出了具有2～7a的周期,且又以3～4a为主的结果.然而进一步研究表明,地球轨道变化对气候的线性驱动,从能量上只能解释气候变化总量的一部分,从周期变化上不能很好地解释厄尔尼诺的发生和强弱,以及气候变化的复杂性等.人们逐渐接受这样的说法,太阳辐射和气候变化之间存在着尚不明了的非线性关系.     

THE INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY OF SURFACE WIND AND UPPER LAYER THERMAL STRUCTURE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC WARM POOL REGION DURING THE WINTER OF 1992～1993

In this paper, the hydrographical and meteorological data observed by the R/Vs "Xiang Yang Hong No. 5", "Experiment No. 3"and "Ke Xue No. 1 "during TOGA-COARE IOP are used to analyze the variability of surface wind and upper layer thermal structure, and to reveal the periods of intraseasonal oscillation of surface wind components and certain layers of sea temperature from November 6, 1992 to February 18, 1993 in the western tropical Pacific warm pool region. It is shown that the variation of the sea surface temperature (SST) was inversely correlated to that of surface wind components. It is also indicated from spectral analysis that the significant periods of intraseasonal oscillation of daily mean zonal wind (MZW) were 30-to 60-day and 8-to 9-day long, and that of mean meridional wind (MMW)was 6-to 7-day long. The fluctuation of daily mean sea temperature (MST) in certain layers from surface to the 250 m layer also had the 30-to 60-day low frequency oscillation except for the 150 m layer,and the fluctuations of the daily MST in 100, 150, 200 and 250 m layers had the same 3-day period,their coherence and phase differences were over 0. 90 and between 319° and 353° respectively, which implies the fluctuations of daily MST from 100 to 250 m layers were in phase with each other in the same 3-day period. The analysis of in situ observations revealed a physical evidence of the westerly wind bursts (WWBs) which trigger off the eastward movement of warm water through intraseasonal oscillation and induce the onset of E1 Nino event.     

海平面变化对厄尔尼诺事件的响应

本文对厄尔尼诺事件影响下的东中国海月平均海平面变化进行了对比分析，结果发现，在厄尔尼诺形成和发展期间．海平面下降并出现负距平值．在厄尔尼诺过程温度距平强度指数急剧上升时，海平面下降明显，最后对厄尔尼诺事件的发生和发展与海平面变化的关系做了讨论．     

海平面变化对黑潮变异的响应

本文对黑潮影响海区海平面变化进行了分析.发现海平面变化与黑潮变异之间存在着密切关系.每当黑潮大弯曲发生时.海平面上升出现高值。另外还对海平面变化原因做了讨论。     

秋季南黄海水文特征及海水的混合与交换

根据1996年10月中韩合作调查获得的CTD资料,分析探讨了南黄海秋季跃层的分布特征及垂直混合状况,同时对黄海冷水团的垂向混合进行了初步探讨.还利用改进后的逐步聚类分析法划分了表、底层水团,确定了各水团的温度、盐度、溶解氧和PH值4要素的平均特征值,并根据各水团的特性和温度、盐度的平面分布特征,重点探讨了黄海水与沿岸水及东海水的混合和交换.     

1981-1983年黑潮弯曲和埃尔尼诺事件的个例分析

在统一考虑黑潮大弯曲和埃尔尼诺事件共同存在的条件下,对水位、海水温度和风场进行了分析.结果发现,1981年黑潮发生大弯曲和1982年出现的埃尔尼诺事件均与相应风场相配合,热带风场变化不仅对黑潮变异有直接影响,而且也是判断这次埃尔尼诺事件爆发的重要依据,从而把1982-1983年的埃尔尼诺与1981-1984年的黑潮弯曲密切联系起来.     

复经验正交函数方法在黄海水温预报中的应用

本文介绍了复经验正交函数(CEOF)方法,并首次将其应用于黄海的水温预报,同时与依据同样资料采用经验正交函数(EOF)方法所作的预报进行了对比.比较可知,在黄海表层水温预报中,应用复经验正交函数方法所作的预报,其精度较应用经验正交函数方法提高0.20℃左右,底层预报精度相当.