Seasonal ensemble generator for radar rainfall using copula and autoregressive model

Uncertainty analysis of radar rainfall enables stakeholders and users have a clear knowledge of the possible uncertainty associated with the rainfall products. Long-term empirical modeling of the relationship between radar and gauge measurements is an efficient and practical method to describe the radar rainfall uncertainty. However, complicated variation of synoptic conditions makes the radar-rainfall uncertainty model based on historical data hard to extend in the future state. A promising solution is to integrate synoptic regimes with the empirical model and explore the impact of individual synoptic regimes on radar rainfall uncertainty. This study is an attempt to introduce season, one of the most important synoptic factor, into the radar rainfall uncertainty model and proposes a seasonal ensemble generator for radar rainfall using copula and autoregressive model. We firstly analyze the histograms of rainfall-weighted temperature, the radar-gauge relationships, and Box and Whisker plots in different seasons and conclude that the radar rainfall uncertainty has strong seasonal dependence. Then a seasonal ensemble generator is designed and implemented in a UK catchment under a temperate maritime climate, which can fully model marginal distribution, spatial dependence, temporal dependence and seasonal dependence of radar rainfall uncertainty. To test its performance, 12 typical rainfall events (4 for each season) are chosen to generate ensemble rainfall values. In each time step, 500 ensemble members are produced and the values of 5th to 95th percentiles are used to derive the uncertainty bands. Except several outliers, the uncertainty bands encompass the observed gauge rainfall quite well. The parameters of the ensemble generator vary considerably for each season, indicating the seasonal ensemble generator reflects the impact of seasons on radar rainfall uncertainty. This study is an attempt to simultaneously consider four key features of radar rainfall uncertainty and future study will investigate their impacts on the outputs of hydrological models with radar rainfall as input or initial conditions.     

Applications of Savitzky-Golay Filter for Seismic Random Noise Reduction

This article utilizes Savitzky–Golay (SG) filter to eliminate seismic random noise. This is a novel method for seismic random noise reduction in which SG filter adopts piecewise weighted polynomial via leastsquares estimation. Therefore, effective smoothing is achieved in extracting the original signal from noise environment while retaining the shape of the signal as close as possible to the original one. Although there are lots of classical methods such as Wiener filtering and wavelet denoising applied to eliminate seismic random noise, the SG filter outperforms them in approximating the true signal. SG filter will obtain a good tradeoff in waveform smoothing and valid signal preservation under suitable conditions. These are the appropriate window size and the polynomial degree. Through examples from synthetic seismic signals and field seismic data, we demonstrate the good performance of SG filter by comparing it with the Wiener filtering and wavelet denoising methods.     

川东南地区龙马溪组页岩孔隙结构全孔径表征及其对含气性的控制

页岩气主要赋存于页岩孔隙中,研究页岩孔隙结构特征是深入认识页岩气富集机理的关键。通过CO2吸附、N2吸附、CH4等温吸附和高压压汞实验,对川东南地区龙马溪组页岩的孔隙结构进行了全孔径表征,并阐明了孔隙结构对页岩含气性的控制作用。页岩的微孔(＜2.0 nm)、中孔(2.0~50.0 nm)和宏孔(＞50.0 nm)都十分发育,且分布特征变化较大。在孔体积方面,中孔提供的孔体积最多,约40.8%,其次是微孔,约34.7%,宏孔的孔体积最少,只提供24.5%。在孔隙比表面积方面,微孔占有绝对优势,约提供76.87%,其次是中孔,约23.05%,宏孔只有0.07%。中孔和微孔提供了页岩中主要的孔体积,控制了游离气的含量。微孔的比表面积与CH4最大吸附量具有很好的正相关关系,且提供了页岩中主要的比表面积,控制了吸附气的含量。宏孔提供的孔体积和比表面积在页岩中不占优势,对吸附气和游离气含量的影响较弱,但可作为页岩气渗流的主要运移通道。因此,明确页岩的微孔、中孔和宏孔的分布特征,尤其是微孔对页岩中吸附气和游离气富集的贡献,对页岩气勘探与开发具有重要指导意义。     

福建平潭岛晚第四纪沉积序列 及MIS 5海侵旋回特征

选择位于福建平潭岛北部芦洋埔海积平原的PT01钻孔,岩芯长度28.3 m,采用加速器碳同位素（AMS 14C）和光释光（OSL）测年建立地层年代框架,认为晚更新世富含有孔虫等海相生物化石的地层应归属于MIS 5高海面期,即MIS 5e的潮下带滨海相沉积。结合岩性特征、古生物化石、沉积物色度、粒度分析及其参数等指标,进行了沉积单元的划分,重建了MIS 6末期以来的沉积相变化过程,揭示出MIS 5期间的多次海平面波动变化,即MIS 5高海面期沉积环境仍存在滨海、潮坪、潟湖、风成砂等沉积相之间的转换,并可能存在短暂的陆相或风化过程。而该区整个末次冰期的沉积缺失或较薄,上部全新世沉积也不发育,厚度仅为3.79 m,以沼泽相―风成砂相为主。     

广西北部山地沼泽20 ka以来的 碳同位素组成与气候变化

根据广西北部山地泥炭沼泽沉积的有机碳同位素组成、TOC和C/N等古气候指标对末次盛冰期以来该区植被与气候演变过程进行研究,结果发现：末次盛冰期（21―14 cal. ka B.P.）偏正的δ13Corg数据反映了山地植被面貌曾发生显著变化,指示冰期气候的冷干变化,但并未导致山地森林向地带性草地退化,C3植物仍占优势。沉积物岩性和TOC等数据表明：在14―10 cal. ka B.P.期间沼泽湿地逐渐形成,指示了东亚夏季风降雨的增强,与石笋指示的季风增强起始年代基本一致。冰消期碳同位素曲线负偏的变化要早于TOC指示的泥炭沼泽堆积,即10―9 cal. ka B.P.前后富有机质的泥炭堆积进入旺盛期。碳同位素组成在9―8 cal. ka B.P.存在一个正偏的变化波动,可能与8.2 ka降温事件或局地物源输入变化有关。7.0―2.8 cal. ka B.P.期间古田湿地的有机质输入较高,碳同位素偏负,指示气候暖湿。从1.7 cal. ka B.P.至今,δ13Corg值的再次正偏可能指示夏季风强度减弱,但考虑到该阶段为人类农业活动快速发展期,因此不排除人为因素的影响。此外,末次盛冰期广西山地与雷州半岛沿海低地的碳同位素值对比发现：沿海平原区与华南山地的沉积记录存在明显差别,其主要原因是山区因山地降雨效应使山区的湿度即便在盛冰期也能保持较高水平;而低地平原冰期阶段的降雨则显著减少,加上平原区较高的蒸发量使干旱程度增加,C4草本也相应增多。实际上,影响亚热带山地沼泽δ13Corg值变化的原因比较复杂,在利用δ13Corg值推论古气候时需要同时考虑气候因素和湿地沉积体的物源及其地貌环境等背景。     

塔里木盆地塔中83井区气侵定量研究

喜山期的干气对塔里木盆地塔中Ⅰ号坡折带古油藏气侵作用是导致油气分馏形成凝析气藏的重要原因,前人关于塔中地区气侵的研究多为定性描述,而定量化的研究较少。以处于塔中Ⅰ号坡折带内带的塔中83井区为研究对象,剖析研究区的成藏地质条件,总结其油气性质、组分特征,进而开展原油样品正构烷烃定量测试,计算研究区不同油气藏的原油正构烷烃损失率Q,对其气侵强度进行了定量化评价。正构烷烃损失率Q的计算结果表明,研究区油气藏都遭受了不同程度气侵(Q变化范围为12%～86%),气侵强度在平面上表现出由北西向南东逐渐减小,剖面上由下向上逐渐变小,同时,气侵导致油气性质改变,原油中的低碳数正构烷烃溶于气相,脱离油相形成与凝析油伴生的高含腊量原油,证实了沿塔中82走滑断裂和塔中Ⅰ号断裂交汇部位充注的高-过成熟度干气对研究区油气藏的气侵作用,为该区油气成藏研究提供了定量证据。     

川滇GPS地壳形变监测网的观测与数据处理

介绍中美合作建立的川滇ＧＰＳ地壳形变监测网的布设和观测情况。利用ＧＡＭＩＴ和ＧＬＯＢＫ软件分别对已完成的两期观测数据进行了处理，基线相对精度优于０．１ｐｐｍ。对两期观测的部分基线结果作了比较，得出了一些有益的结论     

地震和地震海啸中报道死亡人数随时间变化的一个简单模型

在防灾减灾工作中，避免人员伤亡是需要考虑的最重要问题之一。正因为如此，人们对地震伤亡的规律进行了不同角度的研究（例如Lomnitz，1970；Tsai，et al．，2001；Samardjieva and Badal，2002；贾艳等，2004）。