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101.
An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA. 相似文献
102.
Li Zhai Blair J.W. Greenan John Hunter Thomas S. James Guoqi Han Phillip MacAulay 《大气与海洋》2015,53(5):476-490
AbstractSea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland. 相似文献
103.
利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°逐6 h分析资料、微波辐射计资料及FY-2E气象卫星及雷达探测资料,针对2013年6月4日发生在北京及周边地区的一次暴雨过程中边界层东风活动及作用进行了天气学诊断分析,结果表明:对流性暴雨过程伴随有源自东北平原的边界层东风活动,东风活动具有尺度小、降温明显和湿度大等特点。暴雨过程是边界层东风和中低空暖式切变线、偏南风急流和500 hPa短波槽共同作用的结果;东风湿冷空气的锋面抬升和地形抬升作用共同加强了中低层暖湿气流的辐合上升运动,同时东风冷垫和地形抬升作用触发了雷暴的再次发生,相应雷暴具有高架对流特点。东风气流起到了边界层水汽输送作用,中低层偏南暖湿气流为暴雨的产生提供了充足的水汽和不稳定层结条件。 相似文献
104.
利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。 相似文献
105.
首先研究了河南"75·8"强降水事件的极端异常特征,然后从水汽通量的角度定性分析这次事件的水汽输送特征,最后采用了Hysplit模型定量分析了不同源地的水汽来源对河南"75·8"强降水的贡献率。研究表明,1975年8月5-8日在河南省发生的是一次大范围持续性极端降水过程,事件发生期间区域平均降水程度超过其气候平均值3倍标准差。强降水事件是在中高纬度环流异常和台风共同作用下发生的,贝加尔湖以东阻塞高压和副热带高压合并阻挡了7503号台风北上。定量计算结果进一步表明,河南"75·8"强降水的水汽来源与7503号台风具有十分密切的联系。 相似文献
106.
107.
We use the recently released data of lookback time (LT)-redshift relation, the cosmic microwave background shift parameter and the baryon acoustic oscillation measurements to constrain cosmological parameters of f (R) gravity in the Palatini formalism by considering the f (R) form of type (a) f (R) = R β/Rn and (b) f (R) = R + α ln R β. Under the assumption of a Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe, we achieved the best fitting results of the free parameters (Ωm0, n) for (a) and (Ωm0, α) for (b). We find tha... 相似文献
108.
109.
110.
Mingguo Zeng 《中国地球化学学报》2010,29(4):431-437
The 2008-05-12 Wenchuan mud-volcano-earthquake was accompanied with eruption of a huge volume of gas and stone, revealing
that earthquakes generally result from instant reverse phase explosion of supercritical water (SCW) at the supercritical point.
In the deep parts of the crust and mantle there still exists a large amount of supercritical water equivalent in order of
magnitude to that of the Earth’s hydrosphere. Soft fluids which exist in the MOHO at the top of the upper mantle are the so-called
deep supercritical fluids (SCWD). Supercritical water (SCW) has n×103 times strong capability to dissolve gas. Its viscosity is extremely low and its diffusivity is extremely strong. Therefore,
it can naturally migrate toward a region with relatively negative pressure. In the steep break zone of the MOHO at the 57–65
km depth beneath the earthquake belt, due to mutation of overburden pressure, SCWD can automatically separate out CaSiO3 and other inorganic salts, evolving into the SCW (H2O-CO2-CH4O system. In going upwards to the 10–20-km depth of the crust SCW will be accumulated as an earthquake-pregnant reservoir
in the broken terrain. The phase-transition heat of SCW is estimated at 606.62 kJ/kg and the reverse phasing kinetic energy
is 2350.8 kJ/kg. When automatic exhaust at the time of decompression reaches the critical pressure (Pc), the instant explosion
reverse phase will be normal-state air water. It will release a huge volume of energy and high-kinetic-energy gas which has
been expanded by a factor of 1000, leading to the breaking of the country rocks overlying the earthquake-pregnant reservoir,
thus giving rise to a Ms 8.0 earthquake. As a result, there were formed eruptive and air-driven (pneumatic) debris flows whose
volumatric flow rate reaches n×1014 m3/s, and their force greatly exceeds the power of INT explosive of the same equivalent value. 相似文献