Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

A coupling of mixed and discontinuous Galerkin finite-element methods for poroelasticity

In this paper, we formulate a finite-element procedure for approximating the coupled fluid and mechanics in Biot’s consolidation model of poroelasticity. We approximate the flow variables by a mixed finite-element space and the displacement by a family of discontinuous Galerkin methods. Theoretical convergence error estimates are derived and, in particular, are shown to be independent of the constrained specific storage coefficient, c _o . This suggests that our proposed algorithm is a potentially effective way to combat locking, or the nonphysical pressure oscillations, which sometimes arise in numerical algorithms for poroelasticity.     

Artificial neural network and liquefaction susceptibility assessment: a case study using the 2001 Bhuj earthquake data,Gujarat, India

This study pertains to prediction of liquefaction susceptibility of unconsolidated sediments using artificial neural network (ANN) as a prediction model. The backpropagation neural network was trained, tested, and validated with 23 datasets comprising parameters such as cyclic resistance ratio (CRR), cyclic stress ratio (CSR), liquefaction severity index (LSI), and liquefaction sensitivity index (LSeI). The network was also trained to predict the CRR values from LSI, LSeI, and CSR values. The predicted results were comparable with the field data on CRR and liquefaction severity. Thus, this study indicates the potentiality of the ANN technique in mapping the liquefaction susceptibility of the area.     

Accurate local upscaling with variable compact multipoint transmissibility calculations

We propose a new single-phase local upscaling method that uses spatially varying multipoint transmissibility calculations. The method is demonstrated on two-dimensional Cartesian and adaptive Cartesian grids. For each cell face in the coarse upscaled grid, we create a local fine grid region surrounding the face on which we solve two generic local flow problems. The multipoint stencils used to calculate the fluxes across coarse grid cell faces involve the six neighboring pressure values. They are required to honor the two generic flow problems. The remaining degrees of freedom are used to maximize compactness and to ensure that the flux approximation is as close as possible to being two-point. The resulting multipoint flux approximations are spatially varying (a subset of the six neighbors is adaptively chosen) and reduce to two-point expressions in cases without full-tensor anisotropy. Numerical tests show that the method significantly improves upscaling accuracy as compared to commonly used local methods and also compares favorably with a local–global upscaling method.     

Estimation of hydraulic permeability considering the micro morphology of rocks of the borehole YAXCOPOIL-1 (Impact crater Chicxulub,Mexico)

Internal surface, formation factor, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR)-T2 relaxation times and pore radius distributions were measured on representative core samples for the estimation of hydraulic permeability. Permeability is estimated using various versions of the classic Kozeny–Carman-equation (K–C) and a further development of K–C, the fractal PaRiS-model, taking into account the internal surface. In addition to grain and pore size distribution, directly connected to permeability, internal surface reflects the internal structure (“micro morphology”). Lithologies could be grouped with respect to differences in internal surface. Most melt rich impact breccia lithologies exhibit large internal surfaces, while Tertiary post-impact sediments and Cretaceous lithologies in displaced megablocks display smaller internal surfaces. Investigations with scanning electron microscopy confirm the correlation between internal surface and micro morphology. In addition to different versions of K–C, estimations by means of NMR, pore radius distributions and some gas permeability measurements serve for cross-checking and calibration. In general, the different estimations from the independent methods and the measurements are in satisfactory accordance. For Tertiary limestones and Suevites bulk with very high porosities (up to 35%) permeabilites between 10⁻¹⁴ and 10⁻¹⁶ m² are found, whereas in lower Suevite, Cretaceous anhydrites and dolomites, bulk permeabilites are between 10⁻¹⁵ and 10⁻²³ m².     

Heat flow and crustal thermal structure in the Late Archaean Closepet Granite batholith,south India

The Late Archaean Closepet Granite batholith in south India is exposed at different crustal levels grading from greenschist facies in the north through amphibolite and granulite facies in the south along a ∼400 km long segment in the Dharwar craton. Two areas, Pavagada and Magadi, located in the Main Mass of the batholith, best represent the granitoid of the greenschist and amphibolite facies crustal levels respectively. Heat flow estimates of 38 mW m⁻² from Pavagada and 25 mW m⁻² from Magadi have been obtained through measurements in deep (430 and 445 m) and carefully sited boreholes. Measurements made in four boreholes of opportunity in Pavagada area yield a mean heat flow of 39 ± 4 (s.d.) mW m⁻², which is in good agreement with the estimate from deep borehole. The study, therefore, demonstrates a clear-cut heat flow variation concomitant with the crustal levels exposed in the two areas. The mean heat production estimates for the greenschist facies and amphibolite facies layers constituting the Main Mass of the batholith are 2.9 and 1.8 μW m⁻³, respectively. The enhanced heat flow in the Pavagada area is consistent with the occurrence of a radioelement-enriched 2-km-thick greenschist facies layer granitoid overlying the granitoid of the amphibolite facies layer which is twice as thick as represented in the Magadi area. The crustal heat production models indicate similar mantle heat flow estimates in the range 12–14 mW m⁻², consistent with the other parts of the greenstone-granite-gneiss terrain of the Dharwar craton.     

Hydrogeochemistry and isotope analyses used to determine groundwater recharge and flow in low-gradient catchments of the province of Buenos Aires,Argentina

The region known as Pampa Plain, in Argentina, is a vast area characterized by slopes of less than 0.05%. The surface sediment is silty sand, mainly Aeolian, referred to as Pampean Loess, which is a phreatic aquifer unit of utmost importance for the water supply of the region. On account of the slight gradient, hydrogeological analyses using only hydraulic measurements are difficult to perform, often leading to confusing results. Thus, the study presented relies on hydrochemical modeling and isotopic determinations as well. The study area comprises three catchments in the inter-mountainous area corresponding to El Moro, Tamangueyú and Seco creeks, and covering 2,570 km² in the province of Buenos Aires. Measurements of piezometric levels and samples of groundwater, surface water and rainwater were carried out between January and March 2005. Major ion results were analyzed by means of hydrochemical graphs and hydrogeochemical modelling using NETPATH. The resulting data show that it is possible to identify local changes in recharge, flow direction and stream/groundwater relationship by using hydrochemical and isotopic information, which may become a useful and more precise tool for the study of particularly flat landscapes.     

Lake bank filtration at Nainital,India: water-quality evaluation

There are different water-supply schemes in Uttarakhand, India to tap the water from streams, rivers and lakes. At Nainital, seven tube-wells (depths 22.6–36.7 m), located at a distance of <100 m from the lake, are being used to abstract (1) lake water after passage through the soil and (2) subsurface water/groundwater flowing towards the lake. Water samples from the lake and tube-wells were analyzed in monsoon and non-monsoon periods from 1997 to 2006. Total dissolved solids, EC, alkalinity and hardness were found to be marginally greater in tube-well waters. The difference in hydrochemistry of tube-well water was mainly due to variation in flow regimes during monsoon and non-monsoon periods. Results clearly indicate that lake water as such is not potable as it contains unacceptable levels of organic matter in terms of COD (~44 mg/L), coliforms (~15.6 × 10⁴ MPN/100 mL) and nutrients. Coliform bacteria and COD have not been detected in any of the tube-well water samples over the years. Lake water, treated by sand filters did not conform to drinking water standards. These investigations have led to the closure of the treatment facility and installation of two tube-wells in addition to the existing five tube-wells.

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Résumé  Il existe divers projets d’alimentation en eau dans l’état d’Uttarakhand, Inde, afin de capter l’eau de ruisseaux, de rivières et de lacs. A Nainital, sept puits tubés (profondeur de 22.6–36.7 m), situés à une distance < à 100 m du lac, sont utilisés pour prélever (1) de l’eau du lac après transit à travers le sol et (2) de l’eau de sub-surface/eau souterraine s’écoulant vers le lac. Des échantillons d’eau du lac et des puits tubés ont été analysés en périodes de mousson et de celles sans mousson 1997 à 2006. Résidu sec, C.E., alcalinité et dureté ont été trouvés marginalement supérieurs dans l’eau des puits tubés. La différence d’hydrochimie de l’eau des puits tubés était surtout due à la variation des régimes d’écoulement pendant les périodes de mousson et de celles sans mousson. Les résultats indiquent clairement que l’eau du lac en tant que telle n’est pas potable car elle contient des teneurs inacceptables de matière organique en termes de COD (~44 mg/L), de coliformes (~15.6 × 10⁴ MPN/100 mL) et d’éléments nutritifs. Des bactéries coliformes et du COD n’ont été détectés dans aucun des échantillons d’eau de puits tubés au fil des années. L’eau du lac traitée par des filtres à sable ne se conformait pas aux normes de l’eau potable. Ces recherches ont conduit à la fermeture de l’installation de traitement et à l’implantation de deux puits tubés en plus des cinq puits existants.

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Resumen  En el estado de Uttarakhand, India, existen diferentes esquemas de abastecimiento de agua que explotan agua de arroyos, ríos y lagos. En Nainital, siete pozos (profundidades entre 22.6–36.7 m), ubicados a una distancia de <100 m del lago, se usan para extraer (1) agua del lago luego de su pasaje a través del suelo y (2) agua superficial y subterránea que fluye hacia el lago. En períodos de monzón y de no monzón de 1997 a 2006 se han analizado muestras de agua del lago y de las captaciones. Se halló que el agua de los pozos es ligeramente mayor en términos del total de sólidos disueltos, la conductividad eléctrica, la alcalinidad y la dureza. La diferencia en la hidroquímica del agua de las perforaciones se debe principalmente a la variación de los regímenes de flujo durante los períodos de monzón y de no monzón. Los resultados claramente indican que el agua del lago no es potable por su contenido inaceptable de materia orgánica medida como demanda de carbono orgánico/oxígeno –DCO- (~44 mg/L), coliformes (~15.6 × 10⁴ NMP/100 mL) y nutrientes. En el período, no se han detectado bacterias coliformes ni DCO en las muestras de agua de las captaciones. El agua del lago, tratada con filtros de arena, no conformó los estándares de agua para bebida. Estas investigaciones han demostrado la necesidad de clausurar las instalaciones de tratamiento y la adición de dos captaciones a las cinco ya existentes.

     

The Meso-Cenozoic thermo-tectonic evolution of the Eastern Pyrenees: an <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar fission track and (U–Th)/He thermochronological study of the Canigou and Mont-Louis massifs

Vertical displacements on the SW–NE Têt fault (Eastern Pyrenees Axial Zone, France), which separates the Variscan Canigou-Carança and Mont-Louis massifs, were constrained using a thermochronologic multi-method approach. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data from the granitic Mont-Louis massif record its Variscan cooling history and reveal no ages younger than Early Cretaceous, while the Canigou-Carança gneiss massif records systematically younger ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages. These younger ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages in the Canigou-Carança gneiss massif are the result of partial to total rejuvenation of argon isotopic systems related to a thermal flow coeval with the Cretaceous HT-BP metamorphism in the North Pyrenean Zone. Only the deepest rocks from the Canigou-Carança suffered this extensive Mid-Cretaceous thermal overprint probably due to differential burial around 4 km at that time. The post Mid-Cretaceous vertical displacements along the Têt fault are recorded by “low” temperature thermochronology using K-feldspar ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar, zircon and apatite fission track and (U–Th)/He datings. The Mont-Louis granite samples experienced a long period of protracted cooling reflecting a lack of thermo-tectonic activity in this area from Late Palaeozoic to Early Cenozoic, followed by cooling from 55–60 Ma to Late Eocene at a mean rate of 15–20°C/Ma in the final stage. This cooling stage corresponds to Têt fault reactivation with a reversed component, promoting exhumation of the Mont-Louis roof zone contemporaneously with the south-vergent Pyrenean thrusting. In the Canigou-Carança massif, the main cooling event occurred from 32 to 18 Ma at a maximum rate of 30°C/Ma during Early Oligocene followed by a more moderate rate of 3°C/Ma from Late Oligocene to Early Burdigalian, coeval with the normal reactivation of the Têt fault in brittle conditions that accommodated the final exhumation of the massif during the opening of the Gulf of Lion.     

Estimates of heat flow and heat production and a thermal model of the São Francisco craton

An updated analysis of geothermal data from the highland area of eastern Brazil has been carried out and the characteristics of regional variations in geothermal gradients and heat flow examined. The database employed includes results of geothermal measurements at 45 localities. The results indicate that the Salvador craton and the adjacent metamorphic fold belts northeastern parts of the study area are characterized by geothermal gradients in the range of 6–17°C/km. The estimated heat flow values fall in the range of 28–53 mW/m², with low values in the cratonic area relative to the fold belts. On the other hand, the São Francisco craton and the intracratonic São Francisco sedimentary basin in the southwestern parts are characterized by relatively higher gradient values, in the range of 14–42°C/km, with the corresponding heat flow values falling in the range of 36–89 mW/m². Maps of regional variations indicate that high heat flow anomaly in the São Francisco craton is limited to areas of sedimentary cover, to the west of the Espinhaço mountain belt. Crustal thermal models have been developed to examine the implications of the observed intracratonic variations in heat flow. The thermal models take into consideration variation of thermal conductivity with temperature as well as change of radiogenic heat generation with depth. Vertical distributions of seismic velocities were used in obtaining estimates of radiogenic heat production in crustal layers. Crustal temperatures are calculated based on a procedure that makes simultaneous use of the Kirchoff and Generalized Integral Transforms, providing thereby analytical solutions in 2D and 3D geometry. The results point to temperature variations of up to 300°C at the Moho depth, between the northern Salvador and southern São Francisco cratons. There are indications that differences in rheological properties, related to thermal field, are responsible for the contrasting styles of deformation patterns in the adjacent metamorphic fold belts.