库车盆地白垩系碎屑白云母物源区示踪与构造意义

沉积盆地碎屑岩记录了相邻造山带构造演化及隆升剥蚀的重要信息。本文对库车盆地白垩系砂岩中的白云母进行了电子探针及~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar定年分析,并与天山造山带的数据对比研究表明:库车盆地白垩系砂岩中白云母为多硅白云母,硅原子数小于西南天山蓝片岩及榴辉岩中的多硅白云母,形成时的压力低于目前保留在西南天山蓝片岩中多硅白云母;白垩系砂岩多硅白云母~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar年龄为396.6 Ma,与在低温高压变质带中获得的多硅白云母~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar年龄419~310Ma一致,表明了在白垩纪西南天山低温高压变质岩带已抬升至地表遭受剥蚀,为库车盆地提供大量的物质,也表明了在白垩纪西南天山低温高压变质岩带高度(海拔)高于其南部的哈尔克山,而现今天山地貌形态显示低温高压变质岩海拔低于哈尔克山,这可能是由于新生代天山地区差异隆升剥蚀引起的。     

A methodology for estimating business interruption loss caused by flood disasters: insights from business surveys after Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan

This study proposes a probabilistic methodology for estimating the business interruption loss of industrial sectors as an extension of current methodology. The functional forms and parameters are selected and calibrated based on survey data obtained from businesses located in the inundated area at the time of the 2000 Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan. The Tokai Heavy Rain was a rare event that hit a densely populated and industrialized area. In the estimation of business interruption losses, functional fragility curves and accelerated failure time models are selected to estimate the extent of damage to production capacity and production recovery time. Significant explanatory variables, such as inundation depth, distinct vulnerability, and the resilience characteristics of each sector, as well as the accuracy of fit of the model, are analyzed in the study. The function obtained and the estimated parameters can be utilized as benchmarks in estimating the probabilistic distribution of business interruption losses, especially in the case of urban flood disasters.

     

TRMM月降水量产品在新疆地区的订正

利用1998-2013年TRMM月降水量产品与新疆同期的105个气象站地面观测降水量,运用逐步回归与BP神经网络方法,选取1998-2010年数据建立新疆地区的降水订正模型,并利用2011-2013年月降水量进行检验。结果表明:加入地形因子对TRMM月降水量产品订正效果明显,整体上两种模型对TRMM月降水量产品订正的相关系数从最初的0.66分别提高到0.75和0.80,相对误差由10.75%分别降低为4.88%和3.19%;月尺度上,TRMM月降水量产品相对误差为-5.68%~54.44%,经逐步回归模型订正后为-4.26%~32.57%,而BP神经网络模型订正后为-5.33%~24.48%,表明BP神经网络模型订正效果更好;从综合时间技巧评分S_T看,订正后TRMM月降水量产品在各月的效果均有不同程度提高,逐步回归模型订正后提高0.01~0.49,BP神经网络模型订正后提高0.03~0.70。因此,基于逐步回归模型与BP神经网络模型订正的TRMM降水量产品均能够准确、定量地再现降水分布,为TRMM降水量产品质量改进提供一种较实用的参考方法。     

有机锡对海洋微藻的生理效应──Ⅱ.三苯基锡和三丁基锡对扁藻和金藻光合作用的影响

于1991年4月-1992年1月，分别用不同浓度的三苯基氯化锡（TPTC）和三丁基氯化锡（TBTC）培养扁藻和金藻，测定24，48和72h两种藻的净光合速率和生长速率。结果表明，TBTC对两种藻的毒性大于TPTC；TPTC和TBTC在浓度为0．2μg／L时，对两种蕉的光合作用有轻微影响；浓度大干0．4μ/L，两种藻的光合作用不同程度地受到抑制。扁藻对有机锡的耐受力大于金藻：扁藻用两种锡处理后，第一天受害最严重，第二天和第三天光合速率开始恢复；金藻经TPTC处理后随时间加长光合速率稍有恢复，而经TBTC处理后则未出现恢复现象。     

基于GIS的秦皇岛地区海水入侵过程可视化系统的设计与开发

秦皇岛地区由于海水入侵引起了区域环境的严重破坏。本文提出了建立基于GIS的海水入侵过程可视化系统，通过调用MATLAB实现数学模型的数值解及其在GIS平台上的显示，实现了地下水位二维等值线、三维等势面以及标示性离子浓度场的动态显示，为海水入侵的研究提供了新方法、新思路。     

基于非线性薛定谔方程的波浪预报方法研究

为探索海浪波面信息的实时预报方法，以三阶非线性薛定谔(NLS)方程的逆散射变换求解为基础，通过理论推导，给出了一种由实测波高时历数据计算其NLS方程本征值的方法，进一步实现了对波浪包络时空演变的预报。通过预报结果与实测波列的比对，验证了方法的有效性和准确性。该方法可为船舶或海上平台的大浪预警，以及为大波浪中海上作业寻找窗口期等提供一条新的技术途径。     

The vertical attenuation of irradiance as a function of turbidity: a case of the Huanghai(Yellow) Sea in spring

The planar photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), turbidity and concentration of chlorophyll a (chl a), were measured at 26 stations in the Huanghai (Yellow) Sea during a cruise of China SOLAS from 19 to 27 March 2005. Due to low chl a (<0.35 mg · m-3 ) in upper layers (above 5 m), suspended particulate matter became the major factor that influenced the turbidity in early spring. The calculated vertical diffuse attenuation coefficient of PAR, K PAR , varied with water depths with a maximum value in t...     

Subsidence and exhumation of the Mesozoic Qiangtang Basin: Implications for the growth of the Tibetan plateau

The subsidence and exhumation histories of the Qiangtang Basin and their contributions to the early evolution of the Tibetan plateau are vigorously debated. This paper reconstructs the subsidence history of the Mesozoic Qiangtang Basin with 11 selected composite stratigraphic sections and constrains the first stage of cooling using apatite fission track data. Facies analysis, biostratigraphy, palaeo‐environment interpretation and palaeo‐water depth estimation are integrated to create 11 composite sections through the basin. Backstripped subsidence calculations combined with previous work on sediment provenance and timing of deformation show that the evolution of the Mesozoic Qiangtang Basin can be divided into two stages. From Late Triassic to Early Jurassic times, the North Qiangtang was a retro‐foreland basin. In contrast, the South Qiangtang was a collisional pro‐foreland basin. During Middle Jurassic‐Early Cretaceous times, the North Qiangtang is interpreted as a hinterland basin between the Jinsha orogen and the Central Uplift; the South Qiangtang was controlled by subduction of Meso‐Tethyan Ocean lithosphere and associated dynamic topography combined with loading from the Central Uplift. Detrital apatite fission track ages from Mesozoic sandstones concentrate in late Early to Late Cretaceous (120.9–84.1 Ma) and Paleocene–Eocene (65.4–40.1 Ma). Thermal history modelling results record Early Cretaceous rapid cooling; the termination of subsidence and onset of exhumation of the Mesozoic Qiangtang Basin suggest that the accumulation of crustal thickening in central Tibet probably initiated during Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous times (150–130 Ma), involving underthrusting of both the Lhasa and Songpan–Ganze terranes beneath the Qiangtang terrane or the collision of Amdo terrane.     

孟加拉湾障碍层年际变化及其与印度洋偶极子事件的联系

利用1980?2015年SODA温盐资料，结合Argo数据分析了印度洋偶极子(IOD)事件年份孟加拉湾障碍层的变化特征及其形成机制。结果表明，IOD事件年份孟加拉湾障碍层变化显著。纯的正IOD(纯pIOD)年份及伴随型pIOD年份盛期(9?11月)，除孟加拉湾内西南海域障碍层厚度略变厚约5 m外，赤道海域、安达曼海至孟加拉湾北部障碍层厚度均变薄5～15 m，此障碍层距平盛期形态在纯pIOD年份随pIOD消亡迅速消退，但在伴随型pIOD年份维持至翌年3?5月才开始弱化。纯的负IOD (纯nIOD)年份障碍层厚度变化特征与pIOD年份大体相反。进一步分析表明，IOD事件年份赤道风场距平的远地强迫造成等温层深度的变化是湾内障碍层变化的主因。在伴随型IOD年份，受ENSO事件的影响，赤道风场距平在IOD消亡后仍得以维持3个月以上，使得湾内障碍层距平形态持续更久。除赤道远地强迫外，湾内局地风场的Ekman抽吸作用以及混合盐度变化对障碍层厚度年际变化也有一定影响。     

New apatite fission track evidence from the northern Qiangtang terrane reveal two‐phase evolution of central Tibet

The growth of central Tibet remains elusory, albeit important in evaluating different topographic growth models accounting for the Tibetan Plateau development. Thermochronological records in the northern Qiangtang terrane (QT) provide valuable information for investigating the cooling and exhumation history in central Tibet. New apatite fission track data, assisted by inverse thermal modelling, reveal two stages of accelerated cooling. The Early Cretaceous cooling is related with refrigeration of the QT and exhumation probably induced by crustal shortening. The Eocene‐Oligocene renewed cooling reflects the far‐field contraction after the onset of the India‐Asia collision and Cenozoic crustal shortening deformation in the QT, coupled with thermal relaxation and transient lithospheric removal. Our data support models indicating that Cretaceous crustal shortening produced a thickened crust in the QT, whereas the present‐day elevation was established during Eocene‐Oligocene due to crustal shortening, continental subduction and lithospheric delamination.