PDR算法对地磁室内定位精度的提升研究

利用建筑物中金属结构引起的地磁场扰动可以对室内的行人目标进行定位，而且基于地磁场的定位无需布设任何额外设施，因此可以以低成本实现定位。但仅靠单一的地磁技术无法满足室内定位的精度要求。为了解决磁场数据中单点定位的模糊性问题，本文提出了一种利用粒子滤波算法将PDR与地磁相融合的室内定位方法，并开发了地磁室内导航系统，以智能手机为硬件平台构建磁力计传感器模型，建立匹配轨迹的均方误差准则并实现PDR累积误差实时校正的迭代计算。在68 m×1.8 m的试验区域内，产生的平均定位误差为1.13 m，最大定位误差为2.17 m。本文算法的定位精度比单独PDR算法提升了42%；与单一地磁指纹匹配算法相比，定位精度提高了57%。试验证明，本文提出的融合算法对提高室内定位精度具有显著的作用。     

Strength of Stacking Technique of Ensemble Learning in Rockburst Prediction with Imbalanced Data: Comparison of Eight Single and Ensemble Models

Rockburst is a common dynamic geological hazard, severely restricting the development and utilization of underground space and resources. As the depth of excavation and mining increases, rockburst tends to occur frequently. Hence, it is necessary to carry out a study on rockburst prediction. Due to the nonlinear relationship between rockburst and its influencing factors, artificial intelligence was introduced. However, the collected data were typically imbalanced. Single algorithms trained by such data have low recognition for minority classes. In order to handle the problem, this paper employed stacking technique of ensemble learning to establish rockburst prediction models. In total, 246 sets of data were collected. In the preprocessing stage, three data mining techniques including principal component analysis, local outlier factor and expectation maximization algorithm were used for dimension reduction, outlier detection and outlier substitution, respectively. Then, the pre-processed data were split into a training set (75%) and a test set (25%) with stratified sampling. Based on the four classical single intelligent algorithms, namely k-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), deep neural network (DNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN), four ensemble models (KNN–RNN, SVM–RNN, DNN–RNN and KNN–SVM–DNN–RNN) were built by stacking technique of ensemble learning. The prediction performance of eight models was evaluated, and the differences between single models and ensemble models were analyzed. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted, revealing the importance of input variables on the models. Finally, the impact of class imbalance on the prediction accuracy and fitting effect of models was quantitatively discussed. The results showed that stacking technique of ensemble learning provides a new and promising way for rockburst prediction, which exhibits unique advantages especially when using imbalanced data.

     

评估滨海湿地应对海平面上升的脆弱性的研究范式

滨海湿地是海陆交界的生态过渡带,也是对气候变化极为敏感的、脆弱的生态系统,海平面上升对全球滨海湿地构成了严重威胁。为了精确预测未来海平面加速上升背景下滨海湿地的变化趋势,有必要深入开展滨海湿地应对海平面上升的脆弱性评估研究。概述了评估滨海湿地应对海平面上升的脆弱性的研究范式,评估过程包括4个步骤:确定滨海湿地的高程资本;分析滨海湿地高程相对海平面上升的变化趋势;揭示控制高程变化的地表和地下过程;使用前3个步骤中的数据校准和验证模型,预测未来滨海湿地对海平面上升的响应。相关研究将为应对气候变化的滨海湿地适应性管理提供决策支持。     

Subseasonal Change in the Seesaw Pattern of Precipitation between the Yangtze River Basin and the Tropical Western North Pacific during Summer

There is a well-known seesaw pattern of precipitation between the tropical western North Pacific(WNP) and the Yangtze River basin(YRB) during summer. This study identified that this out-of-phase relationship experiences a subseasonal change;that is, the relationship is strong during early summer but much weaker during mid-summer. We investigated the large-scale circulation anomalies responsible for the YRB rainfall anomalies on the subseasonal timescale. It was found that the YRB rainfall is mainly affected by the tropical circulation anomalies during early summer, i.e., the anticyclonic or cyclonic anomaly over the subtropical WNP associated with the precipitation anomalies over the tropical WNP. During mid-summer, the YRB rainfall is mainly affected by the extratropical circulation anomalies in both the lower and upper troposphere. In the lower troposphere, the northeasterly anomaly north of the YRB favors heavier rainfall over the YRB by intensifying the meridional gradient of the equivalent potential temperature over the YRB. In the upper troposphere, the meridional displacement of the Asian westerly jet and the zonally oriented teleconnection pattern along the jet also affect the YRB rainfall. The subseasonal change in the WNP–YRB precipitation relationship illustrated by this study has important implications for the subseasonalto-seasonal forecasting of the YRB rainfall.     

中小城市基本公共服务水平区域均等化的动态分析

选取基础教育、社会保障、基本医疗、公共文化四大类指标,利用2008—2013年我国26个省份163个中小城市的统计数据,测度了其基本公共服务水平区域均等化程度的动态变化。结果表明:中小城市基本公共服务平均水平呈上升趋势;基础教育和基本医疗的区域均等化程度较好,社会保障和公共文化的区域差异较大;基本公共服务水平表现出空间集聚发展态势,东高西低的分布格局呈加剧之势。优化公共财政体制建设,加强省份间协同发展是促进基本公共服务均等化的重要途径。     

辽宁省海域空间用海情景预测分析

为科学制定海域空间规划和充分开发利用海洋资源,文章梳理辽宁省现有用海类型及其存在的问题,借鉴发达国家的用海类型及其发展趋势,根据用海需求以及满足用海需求的有利条件,从多目标角度预测分析辽宁省用海情景,并提出用海管理建议。研究结果表明：辽宁省拥有渔业用海和工业用海等多种用海类型,但存在用海结构不平衡、海洋功能区划不完善、...     

Moment magnitudes of two large Turkish earthquakes on February 6, 2023 from long-period coda

Two large earthquakes (an earthquake doublet) occurred in south-central Turkey on February 6, 2023, causing massive damages and casualties. The magnitudes and the relative sizes of the two mainshocks are essential information for scientific research and public awareness. There are obvious discrepancies among the results that have been reported so far, which may be revised and updated later. Here we applied a novel and reliable long-period coda moment magnitude method to the two large earthquakes. The moment magnitudes (with one standard error) are 7.95±0.013 and 7.86±0.012, respectively, which are larger than all the previous reports. The first mainshock, which matches the largest recorded earthquakes in the Turkish history, is slightly larger than the second one by 0.11±0.035 in magnitude or by 0.04 to 0.18 at 95% confidence level.     

L波段海水介电模型构建与误差分析

基于实验室测量数据,构建了盐度和温度多项式形式的L波段海水介电模型,并采用最小二乘法和奇异值分解技术求解模型系数。将新模型与目前广泛使用的Klein-Swift(KS)模型、Meissner-Wentz(MW)模型以及George Washington University(GWU)模型进行比较。结果表明：新模型计算的海水介电常数与实验室测量数据的RMSE误差为0.09（实部）和0.25（虚部）,均优于KS、MW、GWU模型。     

广西合浦盆地干热岩资源成热条件及潜力评价

为了对广西合浦盆地干热岩资源成热条件及其潜力进行评价,利用广西航磁勘查数据,采用Parker-Oldenburg法反演计算了居里面深度。在此基础上进行大地热流密度值和不同埋深地温计算,发现计算结果与现有测温资料吻合,合浦盆地内西场凹陷和常乐凹陷具有干热岩资源成生条件。结合合浦盆地内基础地质调查资料和油气钻孔资料,分析了合浦盆地干热岩资源的储层和盖层条件。初步圈出2个位于西场凹陷和常乐凹陷的干热岩勘查靶区C1和C2,面积分别为167.10和72.90 km²,干热岩资源量分别为182.48×10¹⁵、77.59×10¹⁵ J。按20%的采收率,合浦盆地干热岩资源量可开采量为52.01×10¹⁵ J,折合标准煤177.48×10⁴ t,占2018年广西全区能源生产总量3 756.69×10⁴ t标准煤的4.72%。在资源量评价基础上,可优先考虑位于合浦盆地西场凹陷的C1靶区开展进一步的勘探工作。     

The compaction effect on the performance of a compaction-grouted soil nail in sand

In this study, two series of physical modeling experiments, with and without a grouting process, were conducted under different grouting pressures to study the effect of compaction grouting on the performance of compaction-grouted soil nails. In addition, a hyperbola-based model was proposed to describe the variation of the pullout forces with and without grouting. Some of the main conclusions drawn are as follows. First, the compaction effect initially influences the mobilized pullout force, but not the final stage of pullout; the large difference between the two series of tests in regard to the pullout force at the initial stage led to the first part of this conclusion. However, the final pullout force results of the tests, both those with and those without grouting, were similar. Second, once the soil condition changes, the compaction effect on the performance of a soil nail depends on the grouting pressure rather than the diameter of the grout bulb. Third, the difference in the soil response (i.e., vertical dilatancy and the vertical and horizontal squeezing effects) derived from the compaction grouting effect will result in the initial difference in the increased rate of the pullout force between the tests with a grouting process and those without. Finally, a hyperbola-based model was proposed to describe the variation of the pullout force of the model tests with and without grouting, through which the pullout force is available of prediction for the given diameter of grout bulb and pullout displacement.