NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF AN EXTREME RAINSTORM OVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION ON 7 MAY 2017 BASED ON WRF-ENKF

An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.     

基于IHO S-44不同测量等级的船速控制研究

通过船不同航速下对海底地形测量影响的仿真,给出相应情况下多波束测深仪波束对测区的覆盖情况,得出了航速不当时将无法实现对测区全覆盖的结论。据此问题推导了基于国际海道测量标准的船速控制模型,并针对SeaBat8101多波束测深仪给出不同测量等级的船速控制指标。     

Reconstruction of eddies by assimilating satellite altimeter data into Princeton Ocean Model

An optimal interpolation assimilation model for satellite altimetry data is developed based on Princeton Ocean Model (POM), which is applied in a quasi-global domain, by the method of isotropic correlation between sea level anomaly (SLA) and sea temperature anomaly. The perfor- mance of this assimilation model is validated by the modeled results of SLA and the current patterns. Comparisons between modeling and satellite data show that both the magnitudes and distribution patterns of the simulated SLA are improved by assimilation. The most signiˉcant improvement is that meso-scale systems, e.g., eddies, are well reconstructed. The evolution of an eddy located in the northwest Paciˉc Ocean is traced by using the assimilation model. Model results show that during three months the eddy migrated southwestward for about 6 degrees before merging into the Kuroshio. The three dimensional structure of this eddy on 12 August 2001 is further analyzed. The strength of this warm, cyclonic eddy decreases with the increase of depth. The eddy shows di?erent horizontal patterns at di?erent layers, and the SLA and temperature ˉelds agree with each other well. This study suggests that this kind of data assimilation is economic and reliable for eddy reconstruction, and can be used as a promising technique in further studies of ocean eddies as well as other ˉne circulation structures.     

河岸带蜿蜒性与植被密度对潜流驻留时间的复合效应

潜流驻留时间是反映潜流交换、溶质迁移转化、生物组成、生态过程的重要特征变量。应用双循环可控式河岸带模型，以NaCl为示踪剂，深入研究了河岸带蜿蜒性与植被密度对潜流驻留时间的复合效应；应用量纲分析和主成分分析法，探析了潜流驻留时间的关键影响因子及其作用程度和敏感性。结果表明：①河岸带植被密度对潜流驻留时间具有促进作用，但存在一定的阈值。②潜流驻留时间分布与河岸蜿蜒形态呈类镜像效应；潜流驻留时间在河岸带蜿蜒波不同位置差异明显，迎水面平均驻留时间约为背水面的1/2。③河岸带蜿蜒性与植被密度是影响潜流驻留时间的关键因子，总作用程度达91.07%。潜流驻留时间对蜿蜒性最敏感，对植被密度敏感性较弱，对复合因子的敏感性介于两者之间；迎水面内组合因子对潜流驻留时间具有共同促进效应，背水面内组合因子对潜流驻留时间具有抑制和促进双重效应。     

岩溶地层水文水井泡沫钻井压力和排量计算

分析了岩溶地层水文水井施工中,泡沫实现平衡压力或欠平衡压力钻井的原理及影响泡沫钻井有效井眼压力的因素,采用迭代法逆循环计算方法,计算井口压力和井口气液排量。     

双曲线配合法在某路基沉降反分析中的应用

本文根据哈尔滨某公路路基实测沉降资料,应用双曲线配合法推算了地基土的最终沉降量,并用太沙基渗透固结理论反分析出地基中粘土层的平均固结系数和渗透系数。应用太沙基方法,将反算出的渗透系数计算路基沉降,结果比选用实验室测得的渗透系数计算的沉降更接近实际沉降值。     

区域可持续发展的一种评价模型:综合协调度——以广东省沿海城市为例

采用层次分析法(AHP)和主成分分析法建立了一种区域可持续发展定量评价的指标体系和综合协调度模型,确定了评价指标体系的权重,并根据广东省沿海14个地市1995年至2004年的统计数据,对其可持续发展综合协调度进行了定量评价。结果表明:(1)广东省沿海区域可持续发展的综合协调度总体上呈现上升趋势,但东中西部分布不均衡,呈现粤中较高东西两翼较低的格局;(2)14个沿海地市中,1995年综合协调度均处于较弱水平(Ⅳ),到2004年,只有深圳、广州的综合协调度超过0.4,达到中等协调水平(Ⅲ),而其它地市仍处于较弱水平(Ⅳ)的综合协调度阶段。     

鄂尔多斯盆地南部上三叠统延长组震积岩的发现及地质意义

鄂尔多斯盆地南部中生界延长组长6—长8中发育与地震有关的震积岩，通过岩心观测识别出的震积岩标志主要有微同沉积断裂、震裂缝、液化砂岩脉、振动液化卷曲变形构造、地震角砾岩、负荷构造及枕状层等。同时在塔17井中发现完整的震积岩垂向序列，序列自下而上分为下伏未震层、微断裂层、微褶皱层、碎块层及液化均一层，上覆未震层。该震积岩的发现为盆地构造演化提供了动力学解释，表明晚三叠世随着秦岭、南祁连海槽的封闭，南北向逆冲带发生强烈活动，是本区延长组震积作用的直接诱发因素。同时该震积岩的发现，为盆地西南部延长组长6—长8发育的大规模浊积岩的外界触发机制是由地震活动引起的提供了有力证据。     

惠民凹陷南坡北北西向走滑断裂带的发育特征及成因分析

通过对惠民南坡前中生代断裂的平面分布和三维地震剖面特征的分析,识别出了一组在平面上相互平行,在剖面上具有负花状构造的北北西向走滑断裂带。通过对负花状构造的形态及其卷入地层特征的分析,认为该组断裂带经历过两期不同性质的走滑运动,在中生代经历了较强的左行张性走滑,在新生代经历了较弱的右行压性走滑。其演化过程与鲁西地块上北北西向走滑断层的演化过程一致,均属于郯庐断裂区域性走滑作用所形成的帚状构造体系的一部分,郯庐断裂在中生代的左行走滑和新生代的右行走滑是控制其发展演化的主要因素。     

滨海多层含水层系统中海潮引起的地下水位波动

通过对一个滨海多层含水层系统的考察,该含水层系统由上、下弱透水层和介于中间的承压含水层组成,海底露头处被淤泥层覆盖.建立了描述该系统中地下水水头随潮汐波动的数学模型,并得到其解析解.该解析解与六个基本参数有关,分别是承压含水层的海潮传播参数,淤泥层的无量纲透水系数,上下弱透层与承压含水层贮水率的比率 (无量纲)和上下弱透层的无量纲越流.当这些参数取某些特殊值时,我们的解便化简为前人考虑的几种简单情形对应的解.分析表明,承压含水层中地下水水头波幅是上、下弱透水层贮水率和越流系数的减函数,是淤泥层相对透水系数的增函数;波动相位(时滞)是上、下弱透水层贮水率和越流系数的增函数,是淤泥层相对透水系数的减函数.